unders

[luckyutah]

By my notes, we've had 12 overs, 26 unders, and 2 pushes in games involving 2 FBS teams. Obviously, this is gonna depend on the final number at different books, but I think it's safe to say that there were double the unders in week 1 versus overs.

Are we following the adage that defenses are ahead of offenses this time of year, is this a trend for the year, or just a statistical variant? Thoughts?

[crackerjack]

It will even out to 50/50 or so. People like betting overs more than unders and the line becomes inflated. I don't think you can find an edge in looking at total number of overs or unders...you have to cap each game on its own merits.

[ZINISTER]

I agree with both of you. Early UNDERS can be profitable when you pick teams with good defenses against offenses trying to find their groove, have new OC's, two QB's battling for starting job(last nights ND/Tex game didn't work so good for me on that theory), teams with a history of bad offense(Vandy and LSU comes to mind) and teams with one dimensional attacks against a good defense is my favorite. I love defense and am an avid UNDER bettor. College ball has become a track meet the pickens are small. I do better finding them in the NFL. The reffing crew information "I used" to be able to find was a big factor in my handicapping the Pros. Had certain crews that were flag happy on pass interference and holding penalties that kept offenses drives alive. You would stay away from those crews on UNDERS and looked for explosive offenses involved in their games to take the OVERS. Would love to have that reffing information if anyone can find the site it is on. Zebras.com used to have detailed breakdowns of specific refs. GL

[BigdaddyQH]

Remember, if a game goes into OT, it basically guarantees the over. Look at UCLA-A&M. I believe that the teams involved should be the first priority when looking at totals, NOT whether the over or the under seems to be running hot or cold.