fading big line movements....

Seadoo · 08-31-16, 06:26 PM

good luck!

gojetsgomoxies · 09-08-16, 02:38 PM

main games 2-3............... so betting market was correct with its line moves

larger later list 5-3 - smaller moves and more eye-balling by me.

so not too newsworthy so far.

BaseballChaser · 09-08-16, 03:00 PM

I would stay away from big spreads if you're going to try this. Or if you play them they need to be bigger line moves then a smaller line.

A line moving from -4 to -6 is much more meaningful then -25 to -27. Not sure how big of movement you're looking for probably more than 2 points, just using it as an example.

HeeluvaGuy · 09-08-16, 03:02 PM

Yeah, I was going to ask how you're quantifying big line movements. Regardless, best of luck to you!

Buffalo Nickle · 09-08-16, 04:05 PM

This strategy is a sure fire loser with a capital L.

gojetsgomoxies · 09-08-16, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by BaseballChaser

I would stay away from big spreads if you're going to try this. Or if you play them they need to be bigger line moves then a smaller line.

A line moving from -4 to -6 is much more meaningful then -25 to -27. Not sure how big of movement you're looking for probably more than 2 points, just using it as an example.

i tried to incorporate that type of thinking into those "picks"........ but i doubt i gave enough consideration to small spread games

is it just the "point move vs. the spread"? or is it also the psychology/play of big spread games?

i will try to quantify something in the future...... i do like slicing/dicing analysis. i will check the spreads and also bcs vs. non-bcs...

as to one comment, just something i am tracking. wasn't meant to be picks....

gojetsgomoxies · 09-08-16, 05:16 PM

i did closer spread games.... have it as 6-5 ATS.....

would also add the "quarterback change" games went 1-1 ATS. so wasn't a factor.