NCAAF SATURDAY TOTALS LEANS 10/14 (all comments welcomed)

[kalind]

ACC
wake forest vs ncstu UNDER 38.5
maryland vs virginia UNDER 38.5

BIG 10
ohio state vs mich state UNDER 53.5
michigan vs penn state UNDER 41.5

CUSA
houston vs s. miss OVER 48.5
u.a.b. vs rice OVER 49

BIG 12
okla state vs kansas OVER 49
tex tech vs colorado OVER 48.5
nebraska vs k. state UNDER 47

PAC 10
oregon state vs washington UNDER 47
u.c.l.a. vs oregon OVER 55.5
arizona vs stanford UNDER 37

S.E.C.
florida vs auburn UNDER 39
kentucky vs l.s.u. OVER 50

WAC
utah vs wyoming UNDER 39.5
new mexico vs u.n.l.v. UNDER 38.5

[rm18]

I would go the other way on colorado/tt, tt might favor the under but you got a team in colorado who reallly has not appraoched that number in regulation all year. I would say 20-16 TT

Also like the under in UCLA/Oregon, has been bet down at pinnacle, new QB should lead to a conservative offense, and UCLA has a pretty good defense to me.
27-20 Oregon

The big ten plays look good, that is probably the conference I watch the most

[kalind]

ACC
wake forest vs ncstu UNDER 38.5****
maryland vs virginia UNDER 38.5

BIG 10
ohio state vs mich state UNDER 53.5
michigan vs penn state UNDER 41.5***

CUSA
houston vs s. miss OVER 48.5
u.a.b. vs rice OVER 49

BIG 12
okla state vs kansas OVER 49
tex tech vs colorado OVER 48.5
nebraska vs k. state UNDER 47**
BIG EAST

wva vs syracuse UNDER 47*


PAC 10
oregon state vs washington UNDER 47
u.c.l.a. vs oregon OVER 55.5
arizona vs stanford UNDER 37***
cal vs wash state UNDER 57*

S.E.C.
florida vs auburn UNDER 39
kentucky vs l.s.u. OVER 50

WAC
utah vs wyoming UNDER 39.5
new mexico vs u.n.l.v. UNDER 38.5*


after lookin more, i have added another look and began to feel out decisions on focusing more toward certain games of interest.

[kalind]

I would go the other way on colorado/tt, tt might favor the under but you got a team in colorado who reallly has not appraoched that number in regulation all year. I would say 20-16 TT

Also like the under in UCLA/Oregon, has been bet down at pinnacle, new QB should lead to a conservative offense, and UCLA has a pretty good defense to me.
27-20 Oregon

The big ten plays look good, that is probably the conference I watch the most

love the mich/psu under. mich on the rd and psu will get dirty with em

[kalind]

SITUATIONAL HANDICAPPING

road teams playing the secon of back to back road games with current game before their bye week with a spread of 5 or less and both teams posting opposite totals results for the week before action. i found that there was 10 games this season that matched up to the situation of playing the second game of b2b roadies before they went into the bye week. i listed all of those games. i went into those games to find 4 games with spreads of 5 points or less and pulled those out. now, of those games i took the games where each team came in posting opposite totals results in the game before. i found 2 of those (csu/nev) and (akron/cincy) ***tenn pushed so i did not include their game unless you received a favorable line*** now of those 2 games i matched up the situation of the visiting team coming in off an under play and the home team coming in off an over play which csu/nevada fit with the current wake forest vs ncstu matchup as wf comes in off an under vs clemson and ncstu comes in off an over vs florida state.



==>wake forest vs north carolina state UNDER 38.5

these are games this year where the road team is playing a game before their bye week. the key here is they are playing the second of back to back road games headed into the bye week. only applies as b2b road games no more no less. highlighted in red are games where the ats line is 5 points or less just like the wf/ncstu game is set at 3.5

duke vs va tech
tenn vs ga
unlv vs hawaii
marshall vs tenn
s. miss vs tulsa (weeknite gm)
colo st vs nevada
sdsu vs byu
akron vs cincy
nevada vs hawaii
la mon vs alabama


wake vs ncstu ==>wake headed into the bye week after this game. common component to the relevant situation is the ats lines of 5 or less. this is applied to .............

*tenn vs ga==>tenn pushed game before/ga went under*==> OVER
s.miss vs tulsa==>both teams went under in prev gm ==>UNDER
colo state vs nevada==>c.s.u. went under/nev went over ==>UNDER
akron vs cincy==>akron went over/cincy went under ==>UNDER

*according to where you received your line and what time you had it*





==>both teams comin into the game going in different directions from a totals standpoint leads to an under play............

colo state vs nevada)))))))colo state under vs colo)))))))nevada over vs ariz state

akron vs cincy))))))akron over vs kent st))))))cincy under vs miami oh

now when the home team is hosting a team that is going into the bye week and they themselves are comin into that matchup off an over play in the game before with the ats line of less than 5 only (c.s.u./nevada) applies to the situation.



i dont usually provide analysis of my totals plays because i look at alot of information. this is something i came across and thought that its relevance was important to the situation. i wont overlook the fundamental side as i am looking at the offensive and defensive line matchups. in all honesty i am thinking of clemson and florida st being held to a point total less than what they played the previous week prior to playing wf and ncstu respectively as wf and ncst hit covers on the ats ncst winning su. grobe vs amato seems to have defense wriiten all over it but remember when it looks too good it probably is. last year these two teams combined to rush 74 times. wake is 119 in passing offense and ncstu is 59th giving up 182 ypg and thats less than wake is avg offensively in the air. on the other hand, ncst is giving up 142 on the ground (86th) while wake is avg 144 (63rd). you have to play to your strengths and the ground game is wakes preferred choice here on the road. wake rushed the ball 90 times in its 2 road games this season while ncstu has givin up 130 ypg on the ground at home this season not including lowly appalachian state.

[kalind]

ACC
wake forest vs ncstu UNDER 38.5****
maryland vs virginia UNDER 38.5**

BIG 10
ohio state vs mich state UNDER 53.5
michigan vs penn state UNDER 41.5****

CUSA
houston vs s. miss OVER 48.5
u.a.b. vs rice OVER 49

BIG 12
okla state vs kansas OVER 49
tex tech vs colorado OVER 48.5
nebraska vs k. state UNDER 47****


BIG EAST
wva vs syracuse UNDER 47


PAC 10
oregon state vs washington UNDER 47 ***
u.c.l.a. vs oregon OVER 55.5 (line at 52.5) may fade here
arizona vs stanford UNDER 37*
cal vs wash state UNDER 57*
u.s.c. vs arizona state UNDER 55 ***


S.E.C.
florida vs auburn UNDER 39 ***
kentucky vs l.s.u. OVER 50

WAC
utah vs wyoming UNDER 39.5
new mexico vs u.n.l.v. UNDER 38.5***

[kalind]

I would go the other way on colorado/tt, tt might favor the under but you got a team in colorado who reallly has not appraoched that number in regulation all year. I would say 20-16 TT

Also like the under in UCLA/Oregon, has been bet down at pinnacle, new QB should lead to a conservative offense, and UCLA has a pretty good defense to me.
27-20 Oregon

The big ten plays look good, that is probably the conference I watch the most

that line dropped crazy low rm. you are on to something here. watch the line and it may lead to riches.

[pags11]

good stuff kalind...