Jimmy Proffett's Beat the Prick picks; plus other NCAA picks.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Figured I'd start a thread with my College Football plays going forward, and a look back at my Beat the Prick picks up to now. Most of my plays are NCAA, so I'll just put it in here. Part therapeutic, part informative, let's do this

Week 1:

Record - 1-4



Faded Idaho and UMass b/c I figured both teams were as horrible as they were last year. I was incorrect. Went 1-2 in the NFL.

Week 2:

Record - 4-1



Nice comeback, won all 4 NCAA bets; took UTEP, Stanford, N.C. State, and Purdue. LOLGiants in NFL cost me a perfect week.

Current record - 5-5; down 0.8 points

Will post this week's plays later. Please tail, fade, criticize.... whatever.... most importantly, let's take all the Books' maney

[Jimmy Proffett]

Without further Apu....

Jimmy's Week 3 Picks!



Pick 1:

Leading off the day, I've got Wisconsin laying.... that's gangster talk!..... LAYING!! 26.5 to the Bowling Green Falcons. This is also my 2X bet. Real simple: Bowling Green couldn't stop Indiana's run game; Wisconsin's is much better, and teams that pound the ball cover big spreads in college f-ball. They're not going to start passing up 5 td's in the 4th quarter, that would be cruel.... better to steamroll more points w/ backups that would start for a team like Bowling Green.

Pick 2:

Tulane +17 @ Duke. Two reasons: Sharp money is on the Green Wave, and Duke's in a look-ahead spot after crushing their 1st 3 creampuffs and having a trip to Miami next week.

Pick 3:

LSU -9.5 vs Miss St.

All week we've been hearing about how Miss St should be ranked, Dak looked great against the Tigers last year.... whatever. This game's in Death Valley on a Saturday night, and Les Grass-Eater has had ample time to prepare for a QB like Dak, whereas last year he came off the bench and surprised everyone. I see big plays through the air again, and Miss St scoring <17.

Pick 4 (NFL):

Baltimore -2 @ Cleveland

Just because it's Cleveland; they can't win 2 big games in a row. Baltimore has had more rest also.

Pick 5 (NFL):

San Diego +2.5 @ Buffalo

Pretty much the same reasons; Buffalo had a real emotional win last week, no way they bring their A+ game back-to-back. And Rivers is just on fire right now, they'll solve the Bills pass rush w/ quick plays to Woodhead, Keenan, and Gates.

There you have it.... 3:40AM on the East Coast, time to hit the hay. If I make any additional plays for real money I'll let y'all know.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Added a parlay for betpoints for funzies:

Sep 20	CFB [307] INDIANA +405
Sep 20	CFB [343] HAWAII +265
Risking 25 SBR To Win 435.81 SBR Ticket#: 2614349

I'm sayin there's a chance.....

[Jimmy Proffett]

Adding Wyoming -3.5 with a local; FAU gonna struggle 7200 ft in the air, they'll be sleepy in the 4th quarter & Wyoming will add some points late to cover easily.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Rough start to the weekend; nailed Wisconsin, way off on Wyoming, Tulane, and especially LSU.... ugh. Although if Hawaii coulda punched a couple into the end zone my miracle woulda come true.

Just added a parlay today; Saints + Pirates (MLB) moneyline, pays slightly better than even money. San Diego +2.5 is my favorite play of the day fwiw, don't like any other options right now.

Happy Gambling everyone.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Beat the Prick record: 7-7-1 (-0.05)

You know who I am? I'm Even Steven.

Time to get "in the black" as they say. And here are my Week 4 Beat the Prick picks:

Pick 1: Purdue +10 vs Iowa

Really wish I could've gotten this line at +13 when it came out this week. But I'll take anything over 1 score. Iowa seems to always be involved in close games. Purdue has a well-balanced offense, & their passing game is starting to look much better; Iowa's a pedestrian 85th in Pass D. This has all the makings of a game decided by a late score.

Pick 2: N.C. State +21 vs Florida St.

Pretty simple reasoning: I think FSU is overrated; I think N.C. St is underrated. It's a home game for the Wolfpack. N.C. State doesn't turn the ball over.... I don't understand why the line's so large.

Pick 3: Duke +4.5 @ Miami

If this is a trap line, then considered me trapped. The line's actually jumped to +7 paying better than even money.... I don't get it. Duke is just a better team, I think by far. Miami's QB situation is a nightmare, watching them thug it up against Nebraska shows me Al Golden's losing control of his team.

Pick 4: Nevada -5 @ San Jose St. (2X bet)

The last time Nevada played a team that only slings the ball and never runs, they beat Wazzou handily. San Jose St is not even close to being as good as Washington St. Minnesota threw for 7 yards against the Spartans and won by 17. Nevada held their own agaisnt Arizona last game, and they've had a week off to prepare for San Jose St.

Pick 5: Detroit -1 @ New York (NFL)

Stafford and CJ are overdue to have a big game, and anytime the Jets get behind in a game they're in big trouble.

BOL this week gamblors. And remember SBR: Keep on swingin'!

[Jimmy Proffett]

Coming down to the wire in my 2x bet.... Bad call gave SJSU plenty of life

Hoping SJSU goes for a FG and onside

OR...... THROW AN INTERCEPTION!

AHHHHHH YEEEEAAAHHHHHHHH

[Jimmy Proffett]

Beat the Prick Record: 10-9-1 (+1.80)

Lucky week for me last week; my 2x bet needed some last-minute defensive heroics for the cover.

Alright, let's get down to business. My Week 5 Beat the Prick plays are.....



Pick 1: UCF/Houston Over 52.5

Both of these teams move the ball well. Houston's young QB shook off his miserable 1st game and is starting to gel with his receivers. UCF has had a pretty rough schedule to start out (PSU in Ireland, Missouri); only decent offense Houston's faced all year was BYU, and they put 523 yards of offense on them. Both teams should score in the 30's easily.

Pick 2: Oklahoma -5 @ TCU

I really think Oklahoma has the best team in college. They are solid in all aspects. I realize the atmosphere in Fort Worth will be insane, but this TCU team hasn't been tested yet. You're not gonna beat this Oklahoma D with just Boykin.

Pick 3: Bowling Green -6 vs Buffalo (2x bet)

My 2nd favorite play of the year so far. My favorite was Wisconsin manhandling BGU earlier this season. But this time I'm backing the Falcons. By the power rating I follow the closest, this line is off by almost 14 points. Even Sagarin has this line at BGU -11, and they're usually pretty close to Vegas lines. The only reason this line's so close is the fact BGU got mauled by much better teams so far; meanwhile Buffalo's schedule besides Baylor has been cupcake city.

Pick 4: Miami PK @ GT

Because Miami beats them every year. And GT just survived against a bad VT team. I was wrong about Miami last week; they rallied the troops and shut down Duke big time. Should keep the trend going against one-dimensional Paul Johnson.

Pick 5: Steelers -6 @ Jaguars (NFL)

Because hopefully those idiots come out on fire this week and do what they did to Carolina earlier this season. And it's Jacksonville.

[laclippers504]

Beat the Prick Record: 10-9-1 (+1.80)

Lucky week for me last week; my 2x bet needed some last-minute defensive heroics for the cover.

Alright, let's get down to business. My Week 5 Beat the Prick plays are.....



Pick 1: UCF/Houston Over 52.5

Both of these teams move the ball well. Houston's young QB shook off his miserable 1st game and is starting to gel with his receivers. UCF has had a pretty rough schedule to start out (PSU in Ireland, Missouri); only decent offense Houston's faced all year was BYU, and they put 523 yards of offense on them. Both teams should score in the 30's easily.

Pick 2: Oklahoma -5 @ TCU

I really think Oklahoma has the best team in college. They are solid in all aspects. I realize the atmosphere in Fort Worth will be insane, but this TCU team hasn't been tested yet. You're not gonna beat this Oklahoma D with just Boykin.

Pick 3: Bowling Green -6 vs Buffalo (2x bet)

My 2nd favorite play of the year so far. My favorite was Wisconsin manhandling BGU earlier this season. But this time I'm backing the Falcons. By the power rating I follow the closest, this line is off by almost 14 points. Even Sagarin has this line at BGU -11, and they're usually pretty close to Vegas lines. The only reason this line's so close is the fact BGU got mauled by much better teams so far; meanwhile Buffalo's schedule besides Baylor has been cupcake city.

Pick 4: Miami PK @ GT

Because Miami beats them every year. And GT just survived against a bad VT team. I was wrong about Miami last week; they rallied the troops and shut down Duke big time. Should keep the trend going against one-dimensional Paul Johnson.

Pick 5: Steelers -6 @ Jaguars (NFL)

Because hopefully those idiots come out on fire this week and do what they did to Carolina earlier this season. And it's Jacksonville.

You feel good with that over in the Houston game?

[Jimmy Proffett]

You feel good with that over in the Houston game?

Line's been dropping like a stone I see. Thought it would move the other way tbh.... I still feel good with it.

[Eddy Munny]

I dunno bout that Miami pick. I think Tech can wear down the Cane defense similar to the way Nebraska did.

You say that they barely survived the Virginia Tech game as if that's a bad thing. They won the game on the road as a 7.5 point dog.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Historically Miami has been successful against GT. I realize most times it's foolish to look at historical trends in college, but these coaching staffs have been in place for the last 3 years, and GT still runs the option and Miami still has speed at defense. And I'm impressed with how Miami looked last week. Offensively the balance is improving, Vaaya looked good in a monsoon last week and the 2 backs for Miami can carve up any defense.

Gonna be an interesting Saturday. A lot of road favorites in conference games.... will the home dogs come out barking or will the cream rise to the top? I had a tough time finding 5 games for the contest.

[Jimmy Proffett]

1-4 this week:

[Jimmy Proffett]

Record on the year: 11-13-1 (-2.65)

Rough week folks. Gotta recover this week.

Pick 1: UCF -2.5 vs BYU

Got the W here. Me and Brandon Lang!

Pick 2: Wisconsin vs Illinois Over 58

Wisconsin can score 50+ in this game. Illinois is ranked #122 in rush defense. Wes Lunt's out; Riley O'Toole is a servicable backup, been at Illinois for 4 years.... They can score over 20 imo.

Pick 3: Buffalo -13 @ Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan is awful. Buffalo lost a tough game last week; they'll bounce back and take it to the Eagles Saturday. Line's up to 14.5 now.... still easy peazy.

Pick 4: Purdue +21 vs Michigan St

I liked the line movement early in the week; public's all over the Spartans and the line went from 23 to 21. I've done well in the past taking big underdogs in B1G Ten conference games. One more time?

Pick 5: Texas A&M -2 vs Ole Miss

Ole Miss gonna come back down to Earth this week. That is all.

[Jimmy Proffett]

3-2 last week. Not a good week at all; way off on A&M and Buffalo.....

I found this cool site where you can check out college teams' depth charts:

http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/

Really comes in handy when you're looking up defensive personal that's injured to see what kind of impact they make. Are they 1st string? 3rd string? Found out that 2 of Houston's starting D personal are out for Friday's game.... btw that's a line I like (Temple +8); I don't care what Dr. Bob is saying.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Record on the Year: 14-15-1 (-2.95 units)

Let's see if I can't hop back into the black this week. Prick took a couple of games I liked (that prickly prick) forcing me to find others. Let's do this damn thing.

Pick 1: Temple +8 @ Houston

Houston's found a little bit more offense with Ward at QB scrambling and making things happen. But they still shouldn't be more than a TD better than the Owls. I've heard through the grapevine that Dr. Bob really likes the Cougs in this spot, but I'm sticking with my original play. Key D players are out for Houston, Temple will score enough to keep this game close if not win outright.

Pick 2: Purdue +12.5 @ Minnesota

I'm just gonna keep riding the Boilermaker wagon until the wheels fall off. Minnesota has played exactly one good team so far (TCU) and got thoroughly dominated. Purdue hung around with MSU last week. This is way too many points for a conference game between two teams that aren't THAT far apart personnel-wise.

Pick 3: West Virginia +8 vs Baylor

Morgantown is a tough place for any team to come and get a victory, even Baylor. Revenge spot for the Mountaineers, who gave up 73 points and over 800 yards of offense to the Bears last year. WVU defense is much improved since last season, and we know what the offense is capable of. Last team with the ball wins.

Pick 4: Kansas State +7.5 @ Oklahoma (2x Bet)

Wait a sec? So you're telling me I get a Bill Snyder-led team that's only lost a close game to Auburn against a Bob Stoops-coached team that struggled to put away Texas last week? AND I'm getting over a TD? Sounds good to me

Pick 5: Central Michigan -7.5 vs Ball State

I got to see Ball State play last week on ESPN3. I put a small wager on them to cover against Western Michigan. They're bad. Real bad. Central Michigan needs this game to keep pace with Toledo for the MAC West title. They can't let up here.

A quick reminder to all you bettors out there: The books got hammered last week in the NFL. I would reeeeaaaaaalllll careful tailing the public plays this week. Some bad lines out there. For example The Prick took Buffalo as one of his plays, laying 5.5 to the Vikings. Almost 80% of the public feels the same way right now. I feel like that's a spot to gain a game on him this week.

[Eddy Munny]

I'd be careful with K-State. I think this might be a spot where Oklahoma kinda gets their groove back. They aren't facing a prolific spread offense this week like they did against TCU and W. Virginia. I think the Texas game was a bit of an aberration. Rivalry games are weird like that. Seven points is not that big of a number for the Sooners, especially in Norman. I like Oklahoma here.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Record: 17-17-1 (-1.15 units)

Still doing worse than half of the participants

Let's find another winning week shall we? These explanations are gonna short and sweet.

Pick 1: Cal +18 vs Oregon

It's too many points for a team with that talented an offense at home.

Pick 2: WMU -10 vs Ohio

WMU has a better offense, Ohio is 114th against the pass, nice weather in Kalamazoo Saturday.... WMU keeps rolling

Pick 3: Georgia Southern -17.5 @ Georgia State

Georgia Southern runs for 371 ypg.... Georgia State is sewage.

Pick 4: Ohio State -13.5 @ Penn State

Ohio State is better coached, way more talented, they kill the Lions in Happy Valley on a constant basis.

Pick 5: Saints -1.5 vs Packers (2x Bet)

Saints keep catching bad breaks in every game; they're in desperation mode, and it's a night game in the Superdome.

Incidentally I like Hawaii a lot also and would've bumped one of the other games for it. But alas, it doesn't appear to be offered in the tournament

Responsible gambling everyone, and have your pets spayed or neutered.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Record: 20-18-2 (+1.70 units)

Getting on a roll finally. Back to positive units! My 5 picks for this week:

Pick 1: Louisville +4 vs FSU

Like this #1 defense at home against an FSU team that should've lost at least twice this season. This FSU team can't run the ball, even with Karlos. Watch out for DaVante Parker to have some big plays.

Pick 2: UConn +10.5 vs UCF

Going with a weather angle on this one; it's supposed to be in the low 40's with showers all day in East Hartford... I'm expecting a muckfest with some final score like 17-14 or thereabouts.... gimme the points.

Pick 3: PSU -4 vs Maryland

PSU showed some promise last week against a good Buckeye team. I think they build off their win and if UM can't feed Diggs, they're gonna struggle moving the chains against the Lions D.

Pick 4: Kentucky +8 @ Missouri

I think Kentucky can win this game outright, but the fact the line jumped over a TD is all the better for my side. Missouri's already lost twice at home to inferior opposition (yeah I think UK's better than Georgia). Towles will match Mauk point-for-point.

Pick 5: New England +3 vs Denver (NFL, 2x Bet)

Brady at home with a healthy Gronk, firmly established in F-U mode, against Peyton who he owns heads-up? Absolutely love this game.

Responsible gambling everyone, and take care of yourselves.... and each other.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Record: 22-21-2 (+1.40 units)

Goddamn I need a perfect week. For good or ill I love all 5 of my picks this week.

Pick 1: Minnesota +1.5 vs Iowa

Gonna take the home team in a B1G matchup; usually can't go wrong. Plus Gophers are off a bye and Iowa's riding high after beating down Northwestern.

Pick 2: Arizona St -2.5 vs Notre Dame

Notre Dame struggles against the spread after playing physical offenses like Stanford or Navy. And their defense is real banged-up; Middle LB and signal-caller Joe Schmidt is out, James Onwulau is questionable, 2 DL are probable.... I like the Sun Devils.

Pick 3: Houston -18 vs Tulane

With Greg Ward Jr. in at QB, Houston's offense has turned things around. I see them putting many points up against a Tulane D that gives up 30 pts/game while not really facing any juggernauts so far. Edit: Tulane's most likely on their 3rd string running back for Saturday, so there's that too

Pick 4: Oregon St -7.5 vs Wazzou (2x bet)

I get an OSU defense that's 10th in Pass Efficiency Defense going against a brand-new freshman playcaller coming into a hostile environment.... and all they have to focus on is the pass b/c it's Mike Leach. This one has blowout written all over it.

Pick 5: Atlanta -2.5 @ Tampa Bay

You can see what the sharps have done with this line. Atlanta started as a 1 point underdog in most places, now they're at -2.5 up to -3. This is a must-win for them; both for the playoffs (technically still alive in the lolNFC South) and for Mike Smith's job. They probably won't win by 42 like last time they met, but still.....

The money-makers are out there fellas. Watch the primetime games for fun; the value is found in the lesser-hyped games this week. My name is Jimmy Proffett, and I approve this message.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Record: 25-23-2 (+1 units)

I'm just gonna put up my 5 picks for the week. If I get a chance, I'll write up a little something about them later if I get a chance.

Pick 1: Western Kentucky -9.5 vs Army

Pick 2: South Carolina +7 @ Florida

Pick 3: Georgia Southern +3 @ Navy

Pick 4: Mississippi St +8 @ Alabama (2x bet)

Pick 5: Chicago -3 @ Minnesota (NFL)

[Jimmy Proffett]

Record: 29-24-2 (+4.85 units)

I've had enough of this Even Steven bullshit.... time to get on a winning streak!

4-1 last week; the Prick outdid me though. So silly

Pick 1: West Virginia -2.5 vs Kansas St

Unranked team at home on a Thursday night against a ranked conference opponent, with that Morgantown atmosphere.... This was almost my 2x bet, but there's actually a better spot to put the big play on.

Pick 2: Purdue pick vs Northwestern

I've done well with Purdue all season... they're 6-3-1 ATS so far this season despite the atrocious record. They come into this game off a bye and play a NW team that just played their hearts out against Notre Dame & got the W in overtime. I see a major hangover coming up for the Wildcats.

Pick 3: Notre Dame -3.5 vs Louisville

Tough loss last week for the Fighting Irish as just stated. And it looks bad on paper I'll admit: mistake-prone Notre Dame against a ball-hawking team like Louisville. This one's gonna come down to athletes. Both teams played FSU this season. Notre Dame held their own all game and kept up with the Seminoles; Louisville got absolutely smoked in the 2nd half by Jameis & Co. The Freshman QB for Louisville's gonna have trouble against this Irish D, even if they're banged up a little.

Pick 4: Baylor -27.5 vs Oklahoma St (2x bet)

This one's gonna get ugly. Baylor coming off a bye, at home against a Cowboy D that ranks 115th in Pass Yards Allowed and 95th in Def Pass Efficiency..... and on the other side of the ball Daxx Garman is questionable with concussion issues aaaaaaand the Cowboys are 116th in Sacks Allowed. Baylor needs to make a statement with this game to jump up into Playoff talks; that means putting up serious points.

Pick 5: Atlanta -3 vs Cleveland (NFL)

I really think the Falcons aren't as bad as everyone makes them out to be. Plus despite their horrible start,they could still win the NFC South. I know Josh Gordon is back, but do you really think he's just gonna jump right back into game situation speed and dominate? I don't.

Responsible gambling everyone..... Oh and remember Friday is Hawaiian shirt. So, you know, if you want to you can wear a Hawaiian shirt and jeans.

[L8night]

Pretty much agree on all the plays, GL

[Jimmy Proffett]