returning QB's - something i think is underemphasized.....

[gojetsgomoxies]

teams that lost highly rated QB's (note i changed some underclassman who declared for NFL draft to seniors even though they weren't. for sorting purposes).....

Jameis Winston	Florida St.	Sr.	4057	184.8
Johnny Manziel	Texas A&M	Sr.	4114	172.9
Zach Mettenberger	LSU	Sr.	3082	171.4
Teddy Bridgewater	Louisville	Sr.	3970	171.1
Tajh Boyd	Clemson	Sr.	3851	168.7
A.J. McCarron	Alabama	Sr.	3063	167.2
Blake Bortles	UCF	Sr.	3581	163.4
Connor Shaw	South Carolina	Sr.	2447	162.9
Aaron Murray	Georgia	Sr.	3075	158.8
Derek Carr	Fresno St.	Sr.	5082	156.1
Keith Wenning	Ball St.	Sr.	4148	154.4
David Fales	San Jose St.	Sr.	4189	153.3
Keith Price	Washington	Sr.	2966	153.3
Brendon Kay	Cincinnati	Sr.	3302	148.9
Devin Gardner	Michigan	Sr.	2960	146.1
Sean Schroeder	Hawaii	Sr.	2960	145.2
Stephen Morris	Miami (FL)	Sr.	3028	144.7
Corey Robinson	Troy	Sr.	3219	143.3
Austyn Carta-Samuels	Vanderbilt	Sr.	2268	143
James Franklin	Missouri	Sr.	2429	141.9
Ross Metheny	South Ala.	Sr.	2622	141
Nathan Scheelhaase	Illinois	Sr.	3272	140.7
Chase Rettig	Boston College	Sr.	1995	140.6
Adam Kennedy	Arkansas St.	Sr.	2363	139.9
Tyler Tettleton	Ohio	Sr.	2851	138.8
Jordan Lynch	Northern Ill.	Sr.	2892	138.4
Tom Savage	Pittsburgh	Sr.	2958	138.2
Caleb Herring	UNLV	Sr.	2718	136.7
Garrett Gilbert	SMU	Sr.	3528	136.2
C.J. Brown	Maryland	Sr.	2242	135.9
Tommy Rees	Notre Dame	Sr.	3257	135.4
Andrew McDonald	New Mexico St.	Sr.	2502	134.5
Derek Thompson	North Texas	Sr.	2896	133.6
Clint Chelf	Oklahoma St.	Sr.	2173	132.9
Terrance Owens	Toledo	Sr.	2230	132
Jonathan Perry	UAB	Sr.	1379	131.5
Logan Kilgore	Middle Tenn.	Sr.	2507	127.7
B.J. Denker	Arizona	Sr.	2516	126.8
Taylor McHargue	Rice	Sr.	2345	125.3
Tyler Benz	Eastern Mich.	Sr.	1497	124.3
Kolton Browning	La.-Monroe	Sr.	2179	124
Logan Thomas	Virginia Tech	Sr.	2907	123.9
Tanner Price	Wake Forest	Sr.	2233	110.2
Case McCoy	Texas	Sr.	1933	109.3

[gojetsgomoxies]

teams with returning starter (hope i didn't miss an NFL declaration, or more importantly someone who just left the school. i didn't even try to identify the latter group).....

Marcus Mariota	Oregon	So.	3665	167.7
Bryce Petty	Baylor	Jr.	4200	174.3
Matt Johnson	Bowling Green	So.	3467	161.7
Braxton Miller	Ohio St.	Jr.	2094	158.1
Jake Waters	Kansas St.	Jr.	2469	156.8
Brett Hundley	UCLA	So.	3071	153.7
Terrence Broadway	La.-Lafayette	Jr.	2419	153.3
Kevin Hogan	Stanford	Jr.	2630	151.5
P.J. Walker	Temple	Fr.	2084	150.8
Grant Hedrick	Boise St.	Jr.	1825	150
Shane Carden	East Carolina	Jr.	4139	150
Cody Kessler	Southern California	So.	2968	148.8
Rakeem Cato	Marshall	Jr.	3916	147.8
Sean Mannion	Oregon St.	Jr.	4662	146.6
Nick Marshall	Auburn	Jr.	1976	143.2
Nate Sudfeld	Indiana	So.	2523	142
Marquise Williams	North Carolina	So.	1698	141.1
Cody Fajardo	Nevada	Jr.	2668	140.8
Taylor Kelly	Arizona St.	Jr.	3635	139.6
Brett Smith	Wyoming	Jr.	3375	139.2
Davis Webb	Texas Tech	Fr.	2718	139.1
Garrett Grayson	Colorado St.	Jr.	3696	138.4
Joel Stave	Wisconsin	So.	2494	138.1
Bo Wallace	Ole Miss	Jr.	3346	138.1
Quinn Kaehler	San Diego St.	Jr.	3007	136.1
Connor Cook	Michigan St.	So.	2755	135.5
Brandon Doughty	Western Ky.	Jr.	2857	134.8
Christian Hackenberg	Penn St.	Fr.	2955	134
John O'Korn	Houston	Fr.	3117	133
Joe Licata	Buffalo	Jr.	2824	132.7
Blake Bell	Oklahoma	Jr.	1648	132.2
Maxwell Smith	Kentucky	So.	1276	131.1
Travis Wilson	Utah	So.	1827	129.6
Jaquez Johnson	Fla. Atlantic	So.	1871	128.8
Anthony Boone	Duke	Jr.	2260	128.2
Dak Prescott	Mississippi St.	So.	1940	126.6
Jake Rudock	Iowa	So.	2383	126.5
Connor Halliday	Washington St.	Jr.	4597	126.5
Trevor Siemian	Northwestern	Jr.	2149	126.4
Cooper Rush	Central Mich.	Fr.	2349	126.2
Gary Nova	Rutgers	Jr.	2159	124.7
Jared Goff	California	Fr.	3508	123.4
Austin Brown	UAB	So.	1199	122.1
Tyler Murphy	Florida	Jr.	1216	121.1
Phillip Nelson	Minnesota	So.	1306	119
Sam B. Richardson	Iowa St.	So.	1397	118.5
Taysom Hill	BYU	So.	2938	118.1
Terrel Hunt	Syracuse	So.	1638	117.8
Colin Reardon	Kent St.	So.	1957	117.3
Pete Thomas	North Carolina St.	Jr.	1667	115.1
Kyle Pohl	Akron	So.	2438	113.4
Nick Montana	Tulane	Jr.	1722	111.1
Zach Terrell	Western Mich.	Fr.	1602	110.7
Paxton Lynch	Memphis	Fr.	2056	110.4
Brandon Allen	Arkansas	So.	1552	109
Nick Mullens	Southern Miss.	Fr.	1776	108.7

[gojetsgomoxies]

as per bigdaddy's good guidance in another thread....

teams that throw the most....

WASHINGTON ST	76%
SMU	65%
OREGON ST	64%
TEXAS TECH	63%
FRESNO ST	62%
SOUTHERN MISS	59%
CALIFORNIA	59%
PURDUE	57%
OLD DOMINION	56%
E CAROLINA	55%
APPALACHIAN ST	55%
LA MONROE	55%
HAWAII	55%
HOUSTON	54%
GEORGIA ST	54%
SAN JOSE ST	53%
CONNECTICUT	53%
BALL ST	53%
W MICHIGAN	53%
ILLINOIS	53%
TROY	52%
LOUISIANA TECH	52%
W VIRGINIA	52%
WAKE FOREST	52%
WYOMING	51%
TEXAS A&M	51%
TCU	51%
VIRGINIA	51%
INDIANA	51%
AKRON	50%
S FLORIDA	50%
TEMPLE	50%

[gojetsgomoxies]

ball state, fresno, sjsu are teams that jump out at me as passing alot and replacing a starter.....

[Night-Tripper]

Nice job!

I, myself, consider the number of returning starting offensive linemen to be the most important factor in the first five weeks of the season. While returning skill position players garner most of the attention, without a cohesive offensive line, chances are that the quarterback isn't going to have time to throw and the running game won't find many holes.

Note: I did not come up with this theory on my own, it was given to me by a former SMU/Chicago Bear offensive lineman who happens to be a close friend of mine... and it has paid dividends.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Nice job!

I, myself, consider the number of returning starting offensive linemen to be the most important factor in the first five weeks of the season. While returning skill position players garner most of the attention, without a cohesive offensive line, chances are that the quarterback isn't going to have time to throw and the running game won't find many holes.

Note: I did not come up with this theory on my own, it was given to me by a former SMU/Chicago Bear offensive lineman who happens to be a close friend of mine... and it has paid dividends.

makes sense, thank you.

......... i've seen some people i really respect suggest "Oline plus QB" is really key. so a bit of both of our theories.

[BigdaddyQH]

Look at your list of passing teams closely and you will see one common denominator. All of those teams had defenses that ranked from below average to just plain terrible. The worse a team's defense is, the more need for that team to score quickly, thus having to depend on the pass. I did not see any SEC teams on that list, nor did I see any Pac 12 South teams, nor Stanford, Oregon, and Wawshington, the top three finishers in the Pac 12 North. Without doing the math, I would also venture to say that there were more teams with losing records on that list than with winning records.

[M.W.]

Jameis Winston is returning for FSU.

[rock1010]

and he's a sopomore, not a senior so he won't be declaring after this season either

[RavensFan2k3]

Very good point, good thread

[JMUplayer]

College QB are over rated when compared to NFL ones....

focus on O line and D line

[Vegas39]

College QB are over rated when compared to NFL ones....

focus on O line and D line

this depends on team in my opinion

[jtoler]

and he's a sopomore, not a senior so he won't be declaring after this season either

Yes he will Einstein.

[jds07v]

He is a redshirt sophomore so he is draft eligible

[Timetoplay]

Very interesting thread. Thanks for posting.

[rock1010]

Yeah, but the thread starter listed him as a Senior when he is clearly still playin...MY BAD!!!!

[gojetsgomoxies]

ok, so I've done some tracking of this... fixed Winston to returning starter. I had just manually changed some underclassmen who left... (and I didn't do any due diligence on transfers etc.).....

anyway, 15 teams with highest returning QB rating and that starter returning... and I removed ohio state with miller injured.

so they went 31-30 ATS..... good ATS: Baylor, marshall, temple, ECU,USC..... bad ATS: FSU, OreSt, UCLA, LL, Oregon

15 teams highest QB rating but new QB

30-36 ATS....good: Hawaii,lsu, Clemson.... bad: Michigan, Alabama, sjsu