Tonight's Marshall Game

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

Anyone have a feel for tonights Marshall/Central Florida game?

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

I am taking Marshall all the way here.
They have played several quality opponents this year on the road. While they have gotten blown out in those games they atleast have the experience of what it is to play top notch college football. I watched the UCF/USM game last week and UCF looks dreadful. Marshall is at home and I think they will ride the crowd to a win

Marshal(-2.5) is the selection here...

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

Sounds good I am with you on that one though the spread is 3 right now I am going to watch the line and then if it does not shift just bet Marshall on the money line!!!!

[gummo]

I think these teams are evenly matched. I'd take the home team and give the points.

[pags11]

no feel for this one...

[LVHerbie]

I think these teams are evenly matched. I'd take the home team and give the points.

I agree that this teams on paper look about as equally good... or more likely as equally bad... I have slight lean towards to Central Florida getting the 3 and half so I'll looking to take them as a small action bet tonight...

[Dark Horse]

Based on my computerized NCAAF records, which go back to 2000, Central Florida is the play if the spread doesn't go over 3.

Sample size: 150-87, 63%, Z-factor 4.09.

I'm just playing the numbers here. There's a red flag that I probably should take into consideration, but I won't.


Edit: My system is based on closing lines. Line is 3.5 now. No play.

[falloutboy35]

i betted on CFL !!! they kicked the field goal at the end to win it, haha i love it, i knew marshall wasnt going to win or cover. CFL was +3 i just teased it to 4...cfl got stopped at the goal line in the beginning of the game which was bullshit tho, if u were watching the game, they got in on 3rd down the ball crossed the line and they said no TD, they woulda won by a lot more..

[LVHerbie]

Based on my computerized NCAAF records, which go back to 2000, Central Florida is the play if the spread doesn't go over 3.

Sample size: 150-87, 63%, Z-factor 4.09.

I'm just playing the numbers here. There's a red flag that I probably should take into consideration, but I won't.


Edit: My system is based on closing lines. Line is 3.5 now. No play.

How can you make a play if you're getting +3 but if you get +3.5 you can't make the play anymore? This doesn't make sense to me...

[Jimmy The Greek]

How can you make a play if you're getting +3 but if you get +3.5 you can't make the play anymore? This doesn't make sense to me...

His system is based on closing lines where a +3 team brings a certain probability of covering whereas a 3.5 or higher team won't (I use a similar sytem). Basically a +3 team is seen as a better club than a +3.5 in the formula.

[Dark Horse]

100% correct. RD's of 3 or lower cover at a much higher rate than RD's of, say, 3 to 7 pts.

[ivyconniver]

if that's the case, i'd use opening lines rather than closing lines.