There is a reason bama is -17

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  • GT21Megatron
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-20-13
    • 10818

    #1
    There is a reason bama is -17
    Say what you want but there is a huge overeaction here because of what happened in the UCF/Baylor game which holds no weight in this game. Bama is the best team in the country. Sure they lost to Auburn but in rivalry game anything goes especially in that one. So I went digging and came up with this. Since 2010 this is what Bama has done in there bowl games against much better teams then what Oklahoma is going to throw at them tonight.

    2010 Bama vs Texas... Bama -4. Bama 37-21...16 points
    2011 Bama vd Mich St Bama -10.5 Bama 49-7 (Captial One Bowl)....42 points
    2012 Bama vs LSU Bama -2. Bama 21-0.....21 points
    2013 Bama vs ND. BAMA -8.5. Bama 42-14....28 points

    Not getting people off their plays but do the math on those last 4 bowl games and Bama has won by an average of 26.75 points.

    I'm laying the -16 because they don't play defense in the Big 12 and Oklahoma's offense is bad if you have watched them this year. They aren't going to be able to line up and just run down bamas throat and they cant pass so thats gonna be a problem. My two cents for what its worth. Saban will have them ready to play tonight given the track record and also wanting to get that bad taste out of their mouth with the Auburn loss.
  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962

    #2
    Originally posted by GT21Megatron
    Say what you want but there is a huge overeaction here because of what happened in the UCF/Baylor game which holds no weight in this game.
    What's the overreaction?
    Comment
    • tyloxx420
      SBR Sharp
      • 06-07-10
      • 325

      #3
      Good info, OU just does not deserve to be playing against Bama.
      Comment
      • BigDofBA
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-30-09
        • 19313

        #4
        I'm an OU alumni and I agree. I picked OU to go 8-4 before the season because this is the second least talented team Stoops has had.

        The only reason OU won 10 games is because the Big 12 sucks.

        OU has a good o-line and WRs but it will do no good since neither QB is very good. OU also has four starters out and was already thin depth wise.

        Im just hoping Bama lets off the gas. They could probably my name their score.
        Comment
        • BigdaddyQH
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-13-09
          • 19530

          #5
          Perhaps someone can explain why out of the 7 teams that were -9 or more, 5 failed to cover.
          Comment
          • New England Pats
            SBR High Roller
            • 01-09-13
            • 117

            #6
            Bama TT at 34.5....thoughts?
            Comment
            • Reener77
              SBR High Roller
              • 05-26-10
              • 120

              #7
              Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
              Perhaps someone can explain why out of the 7 teams that were -9 or more, 5 failed to cover.
              Perhaps someone can explain which of those games involved Alabama and Oklahoma.
              Comment
              • inTomWeTrust
                SBR MVP
                • 10-20-13
                • 1763

                #8
                Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                Perhaps someone can explain why out of the 7 teams that were -9 or more, 5 failed to cover.


                How many of those favorites had top 10 defenses?


                Or were they just over-hyper.. smoke and mirror offenses?
                Comment
                • inTomWeTrust
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-20-13
                  • 1763

                  #9
                  ........
                  Comment
                  • Lift2beFit
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 12-11-12
                    • 616

                    #10
                    Originally posted by GT21Megatron
                    Say what you want but there is a huge overeaction here because of what happened in the UCF/Baylor game which holds no weight in this game. Bama is the best team in the country. Sure they lost to Auburn but in rivalry game anything goes especially in that one. So I went digging and came up with this. Since 2010 this is what Bama has done in there bowl games against much better teams then what Oklahoma is going to throw at them tonight.

                    2010 Bama vs Texas... Bama -4. Bama 37-21...18 points
                    2011 Bama vd Mich St Bama -10.5 Bama 49-7 (Captial One Bowl)....42 points
                    2012 Bama vs LSU Bama -2. Bama 21-0.....21 points
                    2013 Bama vs ND. BAMA -8.5. Bama 42-14....28 points

                    Not getting people off their plays but do the math on those last 4 bowl games and Bama has won by an average of 27.5 points.

                    I'm laying the -16 because they don't play defense in the Big 12 and Oklahoma's offense is bad if you have watched them this year. They aren't going to be able to line up and just run down bamas throat and they cant pass so thats gonna be a problem. My two cents for what its worth. Saban will have them ready to play tonight given the track record and also wanting to get that bad taste out of their mouth with the Auburn loss.


                    saban likes to show up in PRIME primetime apparently, plus that loss to auburn... geez, i feel sorry for the oklahoma football program today
                    Comment
                    • GT21Megatron
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-20-13
                      • 10818

                      #11
                      Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                      Perhaps someone can explain why out of the 7 teams that were -9 or more, 5 failed to cover.
                      I know you have been big on dogs and these trends which I can find a trend for just about anything that involves numbers but this an entirely different animal. The Big 12 is a joke this year. You look at what TCU, Texas and WVU have done. K State got beat at home by a 1-AA squad which should never happen. Arguably the best team in the conference just got smacked around by UCF last night. Good luck.
                      Comment
                      • DoItFoDaKids
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 12-26-13
                        • 11

                        #12
                        42 - 17 Bama Wins!
                        Comment
                        • balls2wall
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-20-09
                          • 2642

                          #13
                          Originally posted by GT21Megatron

                          2010 Bama vs Texas... Bama -4. Bama 37-21...18 points
                          2011 Bama vd Mich St Bama -10.5 Bama 49-7 (Captial One Bowl)....42 points
                          2012 Bama vs LSU Bama -2. Bama 21-0.....21 points
                          2013 Bama vs ND. BAMA -8.5. Bama 42-14....28 points

                          Your math is a little off
                          Comment
                          • GT21Megatron
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-20-13
                            • 10818

                            #14
                            Originally posted by balls2wall
                            Your math is a little off
                            Yea your right I did this on my phone I'll fix it
                            Comment
                            • johnholtby
                              Restricted User
                              • 01-02-14
                              • 2

                              #15


                              Love me some fade material. OU +17 it is.
                              Comment
                              • Semper Fidelis
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-22-11
                                • 1999

                                #16
                                No need to fix anything buddy - 27 or 21 pts, fact remains Bama will romp tonight. Been on them the second I knew they're playing Oklahoma. We're on the same side on this one man, biggest play of the bowl season this far. BOL
                                Comment
                                • Bumdeal
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-17-13
                                  • 3954

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                                  Perhaps someone can explain why out of the 7 teams that were -9 or more, 5 failed to cover.
                                  Gambler's Fallacy. Believing that somehow past results influence the future.
                                  Comment
                                  • Jotoole0821
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 01-23-13
                                    • 857

                                    #18
                                    On the over and oklahoma first half and first half ml
                                    Comment
                                    • Tommy Karate
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-12-13
                                      • 13445

                                      #19
                                      lets go bama
                                      Comment
                                      • coitus_maximus
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 01-05-12
                                        • 870

                                        #20
                                        OU is reported as a top 25 Defense, and on paper it looks good, but given the eye test, their run Def is crappy even for Big 12 standards.
                                        I guess it will depend if you believe Yeldon is as good as Grey or Seastrunk.
                                        Comment
                                        • bluebeachred
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 12-27-13
                                          • 44

                                          #21
                                          Lol...a lot of people look stupid right now in this thread. Congrats to my Sooners and my $$$$$$
                                          Comment
                                          • Big Bear
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 11-01-11
                                            • 43253

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by GT21Megatron
                                            Say what you want but there is a huge overeaction here because of what happened in the UCF/Baylor game which holds no weight in this game. Bama is the best team in the country. Sure they lost to Auburn but in rivalry game anything goes especially in that one. So I went digging and came up with this. Since 2010 this is what Bama has done in there bowl games against much better teams then what Oklahoma is going to throw at them tonight.

                                            2010 Bama vs Texas... Bama -4. Bama 37-21...16 points
                                            2011 Bama vd Mich St Bama -10.5 Bama 49-7 (Captial One Bowl)....42 points
                                            2012 Bama vs LSU Bama -2. Bama 21-0.....21 points
                                            2013 Bama vs ND. BAMA -8.5. Bama 42-14....28 points

                                            Not getting people off their plays but do the math on those last 4 bowl games and Bama has won by an average of 26.75 points.

                                            I'm laying the -16 because they don't play defense in the Big 12 and Oklahoma's offense is bad if you have watched them this year. They aren't going to be able to line up and just run down bamas throat and they cant pass so thats gonna be a problem. My two cents for what its worth. Saban will have them ready to play tonight given the track record and also wanting to get that bad taste out of their mouth with the Auburn loss.
                                            come back strong with The Buckeyes tonight
                                            Comment
                                            • GT21Megatron
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-20-13
                                              • 10818

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Big Bear
                                              come back strong with The Buckeyes tonight
                                              I swear Baylor and OU got their uniforms mixed up for their games. Nobody and I mean nobody saw OU putting up 48 points
                                              Comment
                                              • bluebeachred
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 12-27-13
                                                • 44

                                                #24
                                                I'm from Oklahoma....and not even this loyal fan saw this outcome happening. But...I did win alot of $$$ parlaying my Sooners.
                                                Comment
                                                • Regul8er
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-06-07
                                                  • 10666

                                                  #25
                                                  Oklahoma +17 was about the easiest money to be had this season. I know I'm late, and hind sight is 20-20.......but this was a 10x bet on the dog. Just total disrespect for a solid Bob Stoops coached team.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GT21Megatron
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-20-13
                                                    • 10818

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Regul8er
                                                    Oklahoma +17 was about the easiest money to be had this season. I know I'm late, and hind sight is 20-20.......but this was a 10x bet on the dog. Just total disrespect for a solid Bob Stoops coached team.
                                                    Good call but I have watched OU all year and still have no clue of how they put up 48....SMH
                                                    Comment
                                                    • StackinGreen
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-09-10
                                                      • 12140

                                                      #27
                                                      There was a reason I took the over. I liked Oklahoma + points, but only because they were SO many and this bowl season makes no sense. Le'ts be honest, UCF +17 was a WAY better play than this. Alabama had real weapons and a real QB (so did UCF); Oklahoma had an unknown QB who Stoops wouldn't even announce.

                                                      OU played in an average to bad big conference and beat no one of real acumen all year. Bama beat a few good teams but was generally a weaker schedule (for them), but the teams they beat were far superior to any opponent OU had. I think this justified taking the 17 but my word, no way this was EASY at any point

                                                      Oklahoma had momentum and Bama just didn't come to play

                                                      I was glad I was on the over; never had to sweat
                                                      Comment
                                                      • greypimps
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-13-13
                                                        • 2175

                                                        #28
                                                        Op lay off the stats.. every game is different.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Winning oasis
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 06-14-11
                                                          • 1240

                                                          #29
                                                          "Bama is the best team in the country" LMAO. Quote of the year. Shit Saban and Bama WHO????????? Laughing until next season starts.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BigdaddyQH
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-13-09
                                                            • 19530

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                                                            Perhaps someone can explain why out of the 7 teams that were -9 or more, 5 failed to cover.
                                                            Make that 6 out of 8 that failed to cover. 4 lost outright. Anyone who played the ML on Baylor and/or Alabama is now buried. Vegas made a fortune on you people because they managed to sell you the inflated line on Baylor and Alabama. Just look at the line history. 'Bama went from 15 to 17. Baylor went from 15 1/2 to 17. Few of you did your homework. If you did, you would see that Alabama was a .500 team ATS. They gave up 34 points to an Auburn team that did NOT have a passing game at all. Add that on to the 45 they gave up last night and you get 79 points in two games. Baylor was worse, failing to cover in their last 4 games. Baylor's defense gave up 123 points in their first 8 games and 141 in their last 4 games, not including the 52 they gave up to UCF.

                                                            I cannot stress the importance of making your own mind up by doing your homework. I read just about every post in here, but only to see if I have overlooked some fact that may change my mind. Peoples OPINION mean absolutely NOTHING if they are based on what they think, instead of solid information. I told all of you that the conference does NOT matter in these games. The teams matter. How many of you saw Texas and Baylor lose and decided that the Big 12 was worthless?
                                                            Comment
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