Playing Big Negative Money Lines

[BigdaddyQH]

I see that some people are losing their tails in here taking favorties and laying some big numbers in ML wagers. Here is a little clue to help out those who obviously need help.

This past season I did the same thing. Here are my picks. All of them won.

Florida State -350 at Pitt. Game 1 for both teams. Enough said.
Oregon -1800 at Virginia. The biggest amount I gave. UVA ends the season at 2-10.
Lousiville -456 at Kentucky. Louisville was 2-0. Kentucky 1-1. Kentucky also ended up 2-10.
Stanford -350 at Washington State. Stanford was 3-0. Wazzu 3-1.
LSU -350 at Miss. State. LSU was 4-1. Miss. State 2-2.
Michigan State -375 at Illinois. MSU was 6-1 and undefeated in the Big 10. Illinois was 3-3, 0-2 in Conf.
Missouri -530 at Kentucky. Mizzou was 8-1. Kentucky was 2-6.

The secret with all of these winning wagers was simple. First, a good team played a poor team. Second, all of the teams I picked were on the road. Teams playing on the road tend to give a little more effort to avoid the humiliation of an upset. Third, some of the teams that I faded had won their previous game, lowering the line from what it should have been, thus lowering the risk factor. It also helps if the favorites are in a "must win" situation agaionst a poor team.

What I dod NOT do was to place a wager that I had to give -700 to fade a team that had a record of 11-1. Ths is just crazy. Think it out people, and do your homework. Too many guys in here lose their tails because they are simply too lazy to do their homework. The people in here looking for a handout are the ones that always get their tails handed to them.

[inTomWeTrust]

Nice moves, But what exactly was the logic on the Miss St. and LSU game you layed that on?? Miss St. arent any slouches

[BigdaddyQH]

Nice moves, But what exactly was the logic on the Miss St. and LSU game you layed that on?? Miss St. arent any slouches

Tom, it was rather simple. At the time, LSU was 4-1, coming off a very tough loss at Georgia, but had already defeated Auburn. The thinking at that time was that LSU was the only team with a legitimate chance of defeating Alabama and winning the SEC West. Alabama had already defeated A&M, and I was pretty sure that LSU could take care of A&M at home, which they eventually did. A loss to Miss. State would have ended all of that for LSU. Miss. State was 2-2, with wins against Alcorn State and Troy, and losses to Okie State and Auburn. They were also 1-9 ATS in their last 10 at home vs LSU. Everything pointed to an LSU win. This is what I mean when I say that people have to do their homework.

[ShogunRua]

So crazy how smart/sharp you are in hindsight. Too bad none of this is documented. What a waste of a read. Road favorites on the ML. Yeah, that is the key to winning money.

[GT21Megatron]

I see that some people are losing their tails in here taking favorties and laying some big numbers in ML wagers. Here is a little clue to help out those who obviously need help.

This past season I did the same thing. Here are my picks. All of them won.

Florida State -350 at Pitt. Game 1 for both teams. Enough said.
Oregon -1800 at Virginia. The biggest amount I gave. UVA ends the season at 2-10.
Lousiville -456 at Kentucky. Louisville was 2-0. Kentucky 1-1. Kentucky also ended up 2-10.
Stanford -350 at Washington State. Stanford was 3-0. Wazzu 3-1.
LSU -350 at Miss. State. LSU was 4-1. Miss. State 2-2.
Michigan State -375 at Illinois. MSU was 6-1 and undefeated in the Big 10. Illinois was 3-3, 0-2 in Conf.
Missouri -530 at Kentucky. Mizzou was 8-1. Kentucky was 2-6.

The secret with all of these winning wagers was simple. First, a good team played a poor team. Second, all of the teams I picked were on the road. Teams playing on the road tend to give a little more effort to avoid the humiliation of an upset. Third, some of the teams that I faded had won their previous game, lowering the line from what it should have been, thus lowering the risk factor. It also helps if the favorites are in a "must win" situation agaionst a poor team.

What I dod NOT do was to place a wager that I had to give -700 to fade a team that had a record of 11-1. Ths is just crazy. Think it out people, and do your homework. Too many guys in here lose their tails because they are simply too lazy to do their homework. The people in here looking for a handout are the ones that always get their tails handed to them.

Werent all those games you posted very early in the season? Did we really think for a second Auburn would be in the National Championship? I sure as hell didn't! They won 3 damn games last year and had a new coach. You can't get a feel for who is what until you get into conference play.

[BigdaddyQH]

GT. No one can predict the future. When I played this game, (October 5th), no one including myself expected Auburn to luck out and end up in the NC Game. This is why that you will notice that I played three non-con games in the first three weeks, and only 4 games (all conference games) for the rest of the season. This is the type of wager that you make 5-10 times per season, and that is it. The circumstances must be just about perfect to play this type of wager because one loss can really put a dent in your overall plans for the year. Right now I am 58-45-1 for the year. 7 of those wins were playing these ML games. One a week. That means I am 51-45 for the season on the rest or my games and that is not good. This is just a way to supplement your income.

Shogun. Unfortunately for you, it is documented. Just check my spreadsheet, something that you obviously do not know about. You will see it there. For a guy who had to borrow points, you really have a big mouth. How did you do in the BTP contest? I believe you finished 166th. 38-36-1, right? As you can clearly see, I did much better. I suggest that you learn your subject before you start flappping you jaws.

[GT21Megatron]

GT. No one can predict the future. When I played this game, (October 5th), no one including myself expected Auburn to luck out and end up in the NC Game. This is why that you will notice that I played three non-con games in the first three weeks, and only 4 games (all conference games) for the rest of the season. This is the type of wager that you make 5-10 times per season, and that is it. The circumstances must be just about perfect to play this type of wager because one loss can really put a dent in your overall plans for the year. Right now I am 58-45-1 for the year. 7 of those wins were playing these ML games. One a week. That means I am 51-45 for the season on the rest or my games and that is not good. This is just a way to supplement your income.

Shogun. Unfortunately for you, it is documented. Just check my spreadsheet, something that you obviously do not know about. You will see it there. For a guy who had to borrow points, you really have a big mouth. How did you do in the BTP contest? I believe you finished 166th. 38-36-1, right? As you can clearly see, I did much better. I suggest that you learn your subject before you start flappping you jaws.

Thats a lot of wood to lay...I played the LSU and FSU games and swallowed the points. I really don't like playing $$$ lines to be honest and usually either take or lay the points. I would of taken UCF $Line last night but it wasn't offered to me on my book.

[johnholtby]

I see that some people are losing their tails in here taking favorties and laying some big numbers in ML wagers. Here is a little clue to help out those who obviously need help.

This past season I did the same thing. Here are my picks. All of them won.

Florida State -350 at Pitt. Game 1 for both teams. Enough said.
Oregon -1800 at Virginia. The biggest amount I gave. UVA ends the season at 2-10.
Lousiville -456 at Kentucky. Louisville was 2-0. Kentucky 1-1. Kentucky also ended up 2-10.
Stanford -350 at Washington State. Stanford was 3-0. Wazzu 3-1.
LSU -350 at Miss. State. LSU was 4-1. Miss. State 2-2.
Michigan State -375 at Illinois. MSU was 6-1 and undefeated in the Big 10. Illinois was 3-3, 0-2 in Conf.
Missouri -530 at Kentucky. Mizzou was 8-1. Kentucky was 2-6.

The secret with all of these winning wagers was simple. First, a good team played a poor team. Second, all of the teams I picked were on the road. Teams playing on the road tend to give a little more effort to avoid the humiliation of an upset. Third, some of the teams that I faded had won their previous game, lowering the line from what it should have been, thus lowering the risk factor. It also helps if the favorites are in a "must win" situation agaionst a poor team.

What I dod NOT do was to place a wager that I had to give -700 to fade a team that had a record of 11-1. Ths is just crazy. Think it out people, and do your homework. Too many guys in here lose their tails because they are simply too lazy to do their homework. The people in here looking for a handout are the ones that always get their tails handed to them.

I can tell who the noob of the forum is. Love gathering fade material.

[Tommy Karate]

Nice moves, But what exactly was the logic on the Miss St. and LSU game you layed that on?? Miss St. arent any slouches

wow, did someone else steal your keyboard toot toot?

[BigdaddyQH]

I can tell who the noob of the forum is. Love gathering fade material.

I have nearly 8000 posts and you have 2. And you have the guts to talk about noobs? Get a life.

[pulledclear]

Dead as a hammer.

[ShogunRua]

Shogun. Unfortunately for you, it is documented. Just check my spreadsheet, something that you obviously do not know about. You will see it there. For a guy who had to borrow points, you really have a big mouth. How did you do in the BTP contest? I believe you finished 166th. 38-36-1, right? As you can clearly see, I did much better. I suggest that you learn your subject before you start flappping you jaws.

Your spreadsheet? Really? You have over 10 pages of edits and deletions on your spreadsheet. Once you have 1 or 2, it loses all credibility. Nice job erasing/changing losing picks. I only wonder how many huge ML favorites were removed or edited.

I think its hilarious that you bring up the BTP contest in every single thread. Wow, 1 contest. Congratulations, you are validated because you finished 3rd in 1 contest.

Why do you always abandon your losing threads? You've posted quite a few losers here in the past week or so, but you just completely forget about them like they never happened. Yet, if someone questions you, you bring up the BTP contest like that is all that matters.

[Night-Tripper]

Your spreadsheet? Really? You have over 10 pages of edits and deletions on your spreadsheet. Once you have 1 or 2, it loses all credibility. Nice job erasing/changing losing picks. I only wonder how many huge ML favorites were removed or edited.

I think its hilarious that you bring up the BTP contest in every single thread. Wow, 1 contest. Congratulations, you are validated because you finished 3rd in 1 contest.

Why do you always abandon your losing threads? You've posted quite a few losers here in the past week or so, but you just completely forget about them like they never happened. Yet, if someone questions you, you bring up the BTP contest like that is all that matters.

Kinda like bringing a fingernail clipper to a gunfight...

[Microbetter]

Oregon -1800 ML? Really? This has to be the dumbest bet you can make. -1800??? Please say this is a typo! Even Cornie isn't that dumb.

[Night-Tripper]

GT. No one can predict the future. When I played this game, (October 5th), no one including myself expected Auburn to luck out and end up in the NC Game. This is why that you will notice that I played three non-con games in the first three weeks, and only 4 games (all conference games) for the rest of the season. This is the type of wager that you make 5-10 times per season, and that is it. The circumstances must be just about perfect to play this type of wager because one loss can really put a dent in your overall plans for the year. Right now I am 58-45-1 for the year. 7 of those wins were playing these ML games. One a week. That means I am 51-45 for the season on the rest or my games and that is not good. This is just a way to supplement your income.

Shogun. Unfortunately for you, it is documented. Just check my spreadsheet, something that you obviously do not know about. You will see it there. For a guy who had to borrow points, you really have a big mouth. How did you do in the BTP contest? I believe you finished 166th. 38-36-1, right? As you can clearly see, I did much better. I suggest that you learn your subject before you start flappping you jaws.

[Killer_Demo]

Hey bigdouche wheres your texas pick you lying fukk?

[Killer_Demo]

[ATTACH]63808[/ATTACH]

Bigdouche deleting his losing plays...what a LOSER

[suicidekings]

What I dod NOT do was to place a wager that I had to give -700 to fade a team that had a record of 11-1. Ths is just crazy. Think it out people, and do your homework. Too many guys in here lose their tails because they are simply too lazy to do their homework. The people in here looking for a handout are the ones that always get their tails handed to them.

Amazing how much hate is being thrown around in this thread. The original point was a good one. And timely considering the way the OU/Bama game is playing out.

Personally, I'd rather use these heavy faves in ML parlays that pay out in the -150/+150 range and treat them like regular 1-2u plays, but to each his own.