This is my first post as a member of this site but I have been looking through the forum for the last year or so. I saw this play through my book and thought I would comment on it...
I have been betting on the WAC games all year mid-week and have had pretty good luck with them. I honestly think the league is unlike most other D1 football leagues as the bottom teams and top teams are so far apart talent wise - the big spreads can scare people away....My thoughts on this game below...
1. Western Michigan hasn't lost to a anyone but Iowa by more than 35 points. While most of their games have been comfortable wins by the other team, Western Michigan has put up enough points to make it reasonable. To me, this makes the -35 a no play as we can get better value.
2. Northern Illinois is in a battle for a BSC game as well as a Heisman. Lucky for those backing them, this usually means that a team will try and run the score up as much as possible to separate from competing teams. It's also important to mention that Fresno State who is also battling for a BSC spot plays a below average San Jose State team which they will more than likely put up huge numbers against. Take it from an individual that played college football at this level, Northern Illinois players and coaches know this.
3. I don't think anyone can argue that Northern Illinois isn't far more talented and better coached than Western Michigan. I also don't think many can argue that Western Michigan has not seemed to put together reasonable total points against opponents between 13-24 per game. If you are looking at the lines for this game and you think Northern Illinois is the play at -35 then you are more than likely expecting that Lynch plays the whole game (Heisman hopes) and Northern Illinois does not call the dogs off (BSC bowl). If you think that these variables combined with the fact that Western Michigan might be able to put together a few scores are true then the bet with the most value available would be the -6.5 4th quarter. Lynch stays in the game, Northern Illinois keeps playing offence, and the better team outscores the weaker team by a touchdown in 15 minutes.
I would love to hear your opinions and Good luck all!
I have been betting on the WAC games all year mid-week and have had pretty good luck with them. I honestly think the league is unlike most other D1 football leagues as the bottom teams and top teams are so far apart talent wise - the big spreads can scare people away....My thoughts on this game below...
1. Western Michigan hasn't lost to a anyone but Iowa by more than 35 points. While most of their games have been comfortable wins by the other team, Western Michigan has put up enough points to make it reasonable. To me, this makes the -35 a no play as we can get better value.
2. Northern Illinois is in a battle for a BSC game as well as a Heisman. Lucky for those backing them, this usually means that a team will try and run the score up as much as possible to separate from competing teams. It's also important to mention that Fresno State who is also battling for a BSC spot plays a below average San Jose State team which they will more than likely put up huge numbers against. Take it from an individual that played college football at this level, Northern Illinois players and coaches know this.
3. I don't think anyone can argue that Northern Illinois isn't far more talented and better coached than Western Michigan. I also don't think many can argue that Western Michigan has not seemed to put together reasonable total points against opponents between 13-24 per game. If you are looking at the lines for this game and you think Northern Illinois is the play at -35 then you are more than likely expecting that Lynch plays the whole game (Heisman hopes) and Northern Illinois does not call the dogs off (BSC bowl). If you think that these variables combined with the fact that Western Michigan might be able to put together a few scores are true then the bet with the most value available would be the -6.5 4th quarter. Lynch stays in the game, Northern Illinois keeps playing offence, and the better team outscores the weaker team by a touchdown in 15 minutes.
I would love to hear your opinions and Good luck all!