Back to the Basics: IN JFF WE TRUST

[csknight3]

Okay guys, now that this season is almost over and Johnny Manziel has gone from having one of the most critized offseasons to putting up numbers and playing better than he did a year ago, its time to go back to the basics...Trust in JFF. I posted in a thread last year before Alabama that +14 on the road was a steal because of Manziel (Not trying to say I told you so. Just reminding you of what Manziel does to teams on the road when he is an underdog) Anyway this week we have Texas A&M on the road as +4.5 underdogs at Death Valley.

Are you kidding me??? A team with Johnny Football is +4.5... and on the road...and with the Heisman on the line. GTFO of here. Put your money on the guy who rises to the occasion every GD time. The guy that wins on the road every GD time. The guy that is so interesting that with one click of the send button on twitter, he can determine the headlines of every major sports news outlet in the world.

FACTS:
Manziel has NEVER lost on the road. Ever.

Sumlin is something like 11-0 in his past 11 road games.

Manziel has only lost at most in his career by 7 points and that was to Alabama this year. All his other loses (3, 4, 4). = 4.5 is a steal.

Manziel was somewhat contained by LSU last year. 8 of those defensive starters are gone. JFF wants revenge.

Les Miles blows big games.

A&M's defense sucks.


Okay with all the above. Don't over think this one guys. Its freakin Johnny Manziel. Love or hate him. Don't bet against him on big games. I know A&M's defense is a big concern and LSU's offense is much better this year than ever before. I think LSU screws themselves over by trying to slow the game. Who knows maybe A&M will just run the ball every play too. They have 4 RBs that can play with anyone. Who knows about all that non relevant stuff. Its all about JFF and its his time to shine.

Summary: A&M has not lost on the road with Sumlin and Manziel. Ever. They are underdogs on the road. Take A&M.


My Pick: +4.5 A&m (Obviously). Also adding this in a teaser is a great play. A&M +11...I hate the word lock and guarantee but +11 has a really really good chance of covering.

[Pivotpoint]

Nice write-up. It hadn't occurred to me that JF never lost on the road. They did just get by Ol Miss on the road by 3. Played two top 10 teams Bama and Auburn @ home and lost.

This is a super tough game to call. LSU can score and they have a solid D. Johnny is Johnny, but that A&M D makes me hesitant to back them. I like Tigers as Dogs, home Favs over 3, hesitant.

Johnny is fast as sh*t and even more elusive, but. If you watch closely, he's been taking some hits this year and has looked a little gun shy after taking some big pops. Yes, who wouldn't, just saying he looks more human. I don't know if the stats back this up, but he seems to be running less this year. Kid has a great arm/touch, but Mettenberger does also.

Remember last year LSU made some adjustments in the second half against Johnny and were much more effective.

More importantly, LSU has covered 6 straight when the line is single digits.

Mettenberger has great #'s this year and has some great WR's to toss to.

LSU D is stronger @ home.

I lean LSU with the stronger D @ home with a solid offense that should look even better than they are, against a soft A&M D. One big hit by aggressive Tiger D will slow Johnny down. Mettenberger is tough as nails.

gl

[csknight3]

Completely respect your opinion and agree with a lot you said. Good arguments. Best of luck Pivotpoint. I am just going with the X factor. I think with all this Winston accusations going on, Johnny will capitalize. I understand A&M's D has to do well. I think Sumlin keeps the game plan simple to limit turnovers. Lets be real. As good as Johnny is, he gets greedy sometimes, and his D is so bad, that any turnover is usually a score.

If A&M wins or stays even on turnovers, don't see them even losing. If not then it could go wrong. But once again. Manziel has never lost a game by more than 7 points. Remember this. Even when he was down 21 in the 4th to Bama. Even when he was down 14 to OleMiss on the road in the 4th two years in a row.

[Pivotpoint]

Good luck to you on Saturday, csknight3. Refreshing to see a guy do his homework and present his position. You pointed out a couple things to me that I was unaware of. Good work.

I'd like to have something on this, because I'll be toggling back and forth on tv remote in this time slot.

You probably would have received more responses/discussion if you're thread said "Johnny Football Penetrates Tigers". Thread would be at least 5 pages long by now.

Anyway, you made some solid points, enough for me to dig a little deeper. Still wavering back and forth. Here's a couple more juicy bits.

Aggies a perfect 10-0 away under Sumlin.

Tigers 2-7 ATS as Home Fav against rested opponent.

I stole this fact from another capper.

"Considering three common opponents, (Bama,Miss St and Ol Miss) the Aggies won the stats by +166 yards while Tigs lost the stats by -127 yards. This gave JF a 98 YPG net advantage.

With all that said, still can't get a strong enough feel to pull the trigger on one side. If I was a little brighter, I'd pass. Look at these games as a challenge, we'll see.

Keep up the solid work and cash some tickets this weekend. That's my boy DRose from the windy city, remember you and avatar last season making some solid contributions.