Can someone talk me out of this bet. Illinois -7 @ Purdue

squardo · 11-18-13, 01:04 PM

I have Illinois winning by 2 TD and a FG. The only thing i dont like is them being on the road but i Still think they will cover this pretty easily.

CDMKMP · 11-18-13, 01:17 PM

Yeah I mean it's hard to make Illinois a huge favorite over anyone given their record, but they can put up points in a hurry ... and Purdue can't.

I don't know how Purdue keeps it close, I would definitely cap this game -10 at a minimum, and more like -14

I'm still so wary of it for some reason. Like WTF can Purdue bring to the table? Their offense looked decent against PSU but nothing special.

TiredPro · 11-18-13, 01:20 PM

Two sorry teams going nowhere. I don't see either team having a significant edge over the other. Move along.

Urbanwildlife · 11-18-13, 02:10 PM

Strongly considering taking Illinois myself, as Purdue is just down right horrible, but there is just something at the moment holding me back from doing so, just do not know what exactly it is.

CDMKMP · 11-18-13, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by TiredPro

Two sorry teams going nowhere. I don't see either team having a significant edge over the other. Move along.

Looking at whatever advanced stat you prefer Illinois is significantly better on offense. To the tune of the Illini being top 50 in the country on that side of the ball while Purdue is closer to 120

Both the defenses are pretty bad, I just don't think Purdue can keep pace.

irish1 · 11-18-13, 07:29 PM

very tempting!!!!!!!!

Eddy Munny · 11-18-13, 08:54 PM

You really think posting this would cause the line to shift? What parallel dimension would you be talking about?

CDMKMP · 11-19-13, 01:06 AM

Ha not really, but kinda wanna keep a good thing to myself if possible. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility for it to shift on the site I use.

Eddy Munny · 11-19-13, 01:30 AM

Well yea, lines shift. That goes for any site, but I don't think linesmakers are holding their breath for threads that pop up on SBR to determine their next maneuver. "Hey Billy, bump that Illinois line up on the double. Sweet jesus, I think they've figured us out. Somebody at SBRforum already has a thread about it. Dammit Billy, I knew it opened too low you assclown. Phuck my life. It's over for us now. The hotels, the fountains, the lights, the panache......it's all down the drain. Illinois only laying seven? Honest to god Billy, who does that?"

Koldazzice · 11-19-13, 01:35 AM

Purdue has played some tough competition lately and now they return home in what they consider a "winnable" game.

taking Purdue and the ML

ILL doesn't deserve to be favored by a td on the road to almost anyone.

CDMKMP · 11-19-13, 03:16 AM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

Well yea, lines shift. That goes for any site, but I don't think linesmakers are holding their breath for threads that pop up on SBR to determine their next maneuver. "Hey Billy, bump that Illinois line up on the double. Sweet jesus, I think they've figured us out. Somebody at SBRforum already has a thread about it. Dammit Billy, I knew it opened too low you assclown. Phuck my life. It's over for us now. The hotels, the fountains, the lights, the panache......it's all down the drain. Illinois only laying seven? Honest to god Billy, who does that?"

It was more if people agreed that this line was incredibly out of whack and started betting it before I pulled the trigger on mine. Not likely, but I think I found a very generous line here and didn't just want to shout it from the rooftops.

Originally posted by Koldazzice

Purdue has played some tough competition lately and now they return home in what they consider a "winnable" game.

taking Purdue and the ML

ILL doesn't deserve to be favored by a td on the road to almost anyone.

Purdue can't even beat FCS competition, so what they consider a winnable game has no real bearing. I'm not saying Illinois is good, but they at least have above average offense and bad defense. Purdue is trash on both sides of the ball, I don't know how in the world you would take them over just staying away if you don't think Illinois can cover. Illinois looked quite good against OSU all things considered.

Ill doesn't deserve to be favored by a TD on the road to almost anyone is right ... but Purdue isn't anyone, they are bottom of the barrel. You really can't get much worse than being 115ish in points for and points against, no matter who you're playing.

Illinois probably puts up 35+ this game and I see no way that Purdue matches that.

Only thing that concerns me is what the weather might be.

SteveKerrsJunk · 11-19-13, 05:00 AM

Purdue ML. Illinois is trashtacular, and haven't won a big ten game since ummm forever.

TexasJayhawk · 11-19-13, 06:19 AM

According to Football Outsiders and any other sports media source:

INFIGHTING ILLINI.
Illinois had many, many problems against Ohio State, but the offense wasn't one: Despite the haplessness of the defense, the Illini managed to generate 420 yards and 35 points, as many as they've scored at any point in their ongoing, 20-game Big Ten losing streak. As usual, though, when things went wrong they went really wrong. In the third quarter, with the score still conceivably within reach at 35–21, starting quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase left the game for one snap after his helmet came off during a play; in went backup Reilly O'Toole, who was immediately sacked, fumbling the ball into the end zone for a Buckeye safety. It was at this point that head coach Tim Beckman had to be forcibly restrained from assaulting his offensive coordinator.

Big Bear · 11-19-13, 07:52 AM

you do realize illinois hasnt won a conference game in 2 years right?

both teams are awful but if you fade Purdue i can't blame you

Trmeyer · 11-19-13, 10:00 AM

I have posted about purdue on here a few times before. I live right next to the campus so I see a lot of their games. They are absolutely horrible. I havent looked at this game yet, but before you bet it, look at the weather. There were tornados going through here on sunday and we've had about 20-30 mph wind since. Also look at Illinois kick off coverage as that is the only thing Purdue is decent at. They can take one to the house every now and then. If the weather cooperates, I might lean towards the over. I'm gonna say Purdue dcores 17-21 pts. Hope this helps.

bods72 · 11-19-13, 10:21 AM

LOL!!! Nice satirical post.

CDMKMP · 11-19-13, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by TexasJayhawk

According to Football Outsiders and any other sports media source:

INFIGHTING ILLINI.
Illinois had many, many problems against Ohio State, but the offense wasn't one: Despite the haplessness of the defense, the Illini managed to generate 420 yards and 35 points, as many as they've scored at any point in their ongoing, 20-game Big Ten losing streak. As usual, though, when things went wrong they went really wrong. In the third quarter, with the score still conceivably within reach at 35–21, starting quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase left the game for one snap after his helmet came off during a play; in went backup Reilly O'Toole, who was immediately sacked, fumbling the ball into the end zone for a Buckeye safety. It was at this point that head coach Tim Beckman had to be forcibly restrained from assaulting his offensive coordinator.

Not really worried about this. Everyone saw it unfold and they were just heated during a big-f*ck up at a crucial point in the game. Both guys talked about it later and seemed totally fine, they still put up 14 more points after it.

"restrained from assault" lol ... they didn't even touch each other.

As for the weather it looks like it's gonna be clear and around 35 degrees, with 15mph winds. I just can't see how Illinois offense isn't a few steps ahead of Purdue, but I'll keep looking.

No way I'd take Purdue here ever.

TexasJayhawk · 11-20-13, 03:16 AM

Originally posted by CDMKMP

Not really worried about this. Everyone saw it unfold and they were just heated during a big-f*ck up at a crucial point in the game. Both guys talked about it later and seemed totally fine, they still put up 14 more points after it.

"restrained from assault" lol ... they didn't even touch each other.

As for the weather it looks like it's gonna be clear and around 35 degrees, with 15mph winds. I just can't see how Illinois offense isn't a few steps ahead of Purdue, but I'll keep looking.

No way I'd take Purdue here ever.

I'm with you man. Purdue is playing a bunch of freshman anyways as they're strictly focused on next year. If Purdue can barely beat a 1-10 FCS school (beat Indiana State 24-20 2nd or 3rd week of year) then I think Illinois can beat the living hell of them.

CDMKMP · 11-20-13, 11:14 AM

Messed up part is the line dropped to 6.5 when I checked last night. Back to 7 now.

I just don't get how anyone could back Purdue here. I'd either go huge on Illinois or completely stay away.