Early Leans Week 12

[byrdpickem]

I can't bet until day of so these lines will change on me, but as of now:

NIU -6
PivotPoint's post pretty much nails it here. Check it out.

West Virginia -6.5
Outside of the beating they took in Manhatten, WV offense is starting to put up some points. Kansas on the otherhand is absolutely nauseating. Mountain Men, should cover even on a bad week in Lawerence.

FAU -17
I've been cashing out at the expense of this pitiful Southern Miss team all year. FAU coming off a bye week and played with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder against a solid Tulane team 2 weeks ago (34-17). There are over 100 teams that could cover any line under 3 TDs

Houston +16.5
Cards have trouble covering these big lines against the other competant AAC (see Rutgers, UCF). Houston damn near came home with a win in Orlando this last week. Taking the points with UH this week, this should be a 4th quarter game.

Colorado St -6
I was very impressed with the rushing attack of New Mexico last Friday. Problem is CSU's rushing defense can hold it's own ranking #30 in Rushing D YPG. Its big weakness is the secondary, but luckily for the Rams the passing game in New Mexico is virtually non-existent. This CSU team is playing for bowl-eligibility and should be able to stack the box for 4 quarters and cover. Lay the 6!


Thoughts welcome!

[NeilV]

All 5 are my favorites too. BOL to you this week.

[byrdpickem]

You as well Neil!

[TiredPro]

Like Louisville to cover this big number versus Houston. Have a feeling the line was set that high to attract Houston money. Lines makers know Louisville may bury them.......especially after disappointing the betting alum last week at Connecticut. Houston has played emotional football the past 3 weeks. Bridgewater and cards catch Houston at a good time.

[byrdpickem]

Like Louisville to cover this big number versus Houston. Have a feeling the line was set that high to attract Houston money. Lines makers know Louisville may bury them.......especially after disappointing the betting alum last week at Connecticut. Houston has played emotional football the past 3 weeks. Bridgewater and cards catch Houston at a good time.

It does feel like they are begging us to take UH. Felt that way about the UCF game last week too, but the Cougs hung in there. Curious to see how much this line will move by Saturday!

[M.W.]

Who cares if they're begging for UH money? They're obviously clueless about how good Houston is, which is why Houston is 7-1 ATS this year.

[TiredPro]

You should care if you are playing the game. Seldom will you see a team go 11-1 or 10-2 against the spread. Louisville defense will be prepared and up for Houston. I think Louisville covers this number.

[RPK2004]

I like FAU -17. S. Miss turns the ball over at an alarming rate and FAU needs to win their last three games to become bowl eligible, which they will be favored in all three, starting with this one. This will actually be the largest number FAU has had to cover in 5 years (not counting last years season opener vs. Wagner <won SU 7-3>, so that is scary, but S Miss is just a fade machine right now. FAU was not distracted by the Pelini firing Vs. Tulane, and now off a bye, should get the job done.


I took Houston +17 just for the fact that I was expecting this to come out around 13 and this is a ton of points to a Houston team that gets better each week and has only lost 1 game ATS. O'Korn at QB gets better every week and even if L'Ville is up big in the 4th, Houston has quick strike capability and backdoor potential. They are on the second of back-to-back road games and had a tough loss to UCF. Greenberry at WR is an underrated true Fresh and even though Louisville is clearly the more talented team, UH also leads the nation in turnover margin, which has obviously helped their ATS record. I see a high scoring game that Houston came stay within this line.

I don't bet on KU and would actually never put my money down on this years team. They are actually not as bad as some of the scores of their games, but if I was going to bet it, I would take WV. Something about the line is making me feel like this might be a close one though.

Colorado St. not a good road favorite at all, which is why I think has a little to do with the line being suspiciously low, not to mention the Rams haven't seen the triple option all year. It is NM's home finale, this will be their last winnable game, but Colo St has owned this series in recent years. I actually liked New Mexico when first looking over this game, but I was expecting the line to be closer to 10 or 11. When it came out at 5, I took it there, but am hoping it rises closer to 10 and I might try to take New Mex and middle it. I don't trust Colo St as a road favorite and last weeks win at Nevada is misleading as they were in a battle up to mid 4th quarter where they had 2 straight def Int ret TD's to break it open. More on the line for Colorado St here though and I think they'll win.

[RavensFan2k3]

Is WVU starting QB gonna play this werk? Im pretty sure he got hurt vs Texas

[TexasJayhawk]

I like FAU -17. S. Miss turns the ball over at an alarming rate and FAU needs to win their last three games to become bowl eligible, which they will be favored in all three, starting with this one. This will actually be the largest number FAU has had to cover in 5 years (not counting last years season opener vs. Wagner <won SU 7-3>, so that is scary, but S Miss is just a fade machine right now. FAU was not distracted by the Pelini firing Vs. Tulane, and now off a bye, should get the job done.


I took Houston +17 just for the fact that I was expecting this to come out around 13 and this is a ton of points to a Houston team that gets better each week and has only lost 1 game ATS. O'Korn at QB gets better every week and even if L'Ville is up big in the 4th, Houston has quick strike capability and backdoor potential. They are on the second of back-to-back road games and had a tough loss to UCF. Greenberry at WR is an underrated true Fresh and even though Louisville is clearly the more talented team, UH also leads the nation in turnover margin, which has obviously helped their ATS record. I see a high scoring game that Houston came stay within this line.

I don't bet on KU and would actually never put my money down on this years team. They are actually not as bad as some of the scores of their games, but if I was going to bet it, I would take WV. Something about the line is making me feel like this might be a close one though.

Colorado St. not a good road favorite at all, which is why I think has a little to do with the line being suspiciously low, not to mention the Rams haven't seen the triple option all year. It is NM's home finale, this will be their last winnable game, but Colo St has owned this series in recent years. I actually liked New Mexico when first looking over this game, but I was expecting the line to be closer to 10 or 11. When it came out at 5, I took it there, but am hoping it rises closer to 10 and I might try to take New Mex and middle it. I don't trust Colo St as a road favorite and last weeks win at Nevada is misleading as they were in a battle up to mid 4th quarter where they had 2 straight def Int ret TD's to break it open. More on the line for Colorado St here though and I think they'll win.

You go to KU or just a fan?

[byrdpickem]

Is WVU starting QB gonna play this werk? Im pretty sure he got hurt vs Texas

They aren't saying much. If you ask Clint Trickett he says he feels fine, and is ready to go. However, head-injuries are long, drawn out processes (as they should be) and there is no clear starter yet. Even if he is cleared, Millard may get the nod depending on how much practice Trickett misses. Not the first time WV has been unsure of the QB situation.

[byrdpickem]

Colorado St. not a good road favorite at all, which is why I think has a little to do with the line being suspiciously low, not to mention the Rams haven't seen the triple option all year. It is NM's home finale, this will be their last winnable game, but Colo St has owned this series in recent years. I actually liked New Mexico when first looking over this game, but I was expecting the line to be closer to 10 or 11. When it came out at 5, I took it there, but am hoping it rises closer to 10 and I might try to take New Mex and middle it. I don't trust Colo St as a road favorite and last weeks win at Nevada is misleading as they were in a battle up to mid 4th quarter where they had 2 straight def Int ret TD's to break it open. More on the line for Colorado St here though and I think they'll win.

All great points. If they had any type of passing game I wouldn't be leaning as much, but I just think CSU knows what it has to do here. This is for win number 6, not to mention their only hope of staying in the race for the Mountain Division. I was unaware of the Nevada scenario you pointed out. I do have to say, you've got me second guessing myself here. I appreciate your feedback RPK!

[Eric22174]

I have West Virigina winning 27-21 but thats in favor of Kansas on the spread. But factoring on where the line goes will tell if i take the Jayhawks. Would like to get it at +7.5 at home.