****A Lean for tonights game - ULL v. Ark St.****

[Jago2008]

I will be backing Arkansas St. tonight as small dogs at home +122

I think coming into this game people, well mostly squares (even though the distribution publicly is about equal), are looking at ULL being favored, their record, recent win over W.Kentucky last week and saying they should beat this 3-3 Ark ST. team at home. However basing that decision on ULL's record and recent performance leaves you vulnerable, IMO. If I may make a comparison, it's like a pitchers ERA in baseball- high or low it sometimes does not tell the full story.

- The point being this Ark. St team is 3-3 because they've lost to two AP top 25 teams in Auburn, and a really good Missouri team. They've had close to two weeks to prepare for this ULL team, and are undefeated at home.

- Terrence Broadway of ULL did not impress me last week, he went a dismal 5-of-12 for just 90 yards in that win over W. Kentucky, aided by 4 turnovers by W. Kentucky.

- Situationally I think this is a good spot to back Ark. St. as an undefeated home dog.


If anyone wants to check my previous threads, currently 4-0 on my CFB picks:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/2630700-play-duke-virginia-total.html

Florida vs. LSU - disucssion/lean.

Try to live-bet the 'Under' in this Rutgers v. Louisville matchup.

TCU +10-9.5 v. OKLAHOMA

GL.

[Melda]

I agree. Well put

[Jago2008]

I agree. Well put

Thank you, GL.

[Bbfromgpt]

I got ML 1H ASU GL

[Jago2008]

I got ML 1H ASU GL

GL.


Wow that was a really bad INT by Adam Kennedy, good thing defense held them to a FG. Let's see how Ark. St. responds here, they've always responded well at home.

[Fred The Hammer]

You can see LL owns the line of scrimmage early but that was somewhat expected. Ark St. needs to be the more dynamic team...crossing patterns...screens..etc. I'd pack the line on D and make them put the ball in the air. I'm on Ark St. ML too

[Bbfromgpt]

Yea hoping I get lucky for the 1st half but from the looks of it I like ULL for the game. They're pushing ASU all around the field. That will be bad, real bad late in the game

[Bbfromgpt]

Lol first they muff a punt and it goes out of bounds then the qb makes a retarded throw off his back foot and completes it

[Bbfromgpt]

That was a great spot on the 3rd down throw, looked a lot closer to two yards short

[Fred The Hammer]

Not a good start but lets see what happens....Ark State has bring up the safeties and take some chances or they'll pound out 4-6 yards or more on the Dline all night.

[Jago2008]

ULL is so far dominating every aspect of the game.

[Jago2008]

Ark St. needed that 1st down.

[Bbfromgpt]

This is one of the worst game plans you'll ever see. This team went from well coached to poorly coached. Sad

You can't put a struggling pass protecting oline in a situation where everyone knows they're passing. Not to mention the dumbass run on every first down for 0 yards

[Bbfromgpt]

This is why you don't make blind plays like I did haha. This team is awful

[Jago2008]

Yeah 20-7 at the half, seems like a loser, they had a chance to make it 17-10 therr before the end of the half but did nothing with field position.

[Jago2008]

This is why you don't make blind plays like I did haha. This team is awful

Game is not over yet though man, don't give up yet

[Jago2008]

Forget abt the unit I lost in that game, I just want 3 hours of my life back for that Gawd-awful mess.

Bad play guys, sorry.

Well 4-1 on recent picks.