Against the Streak Picks

[Jayvegas420]

Air Force +4 SDST always covers in this matchup
Indiana/Michigan St under 52.5 always goes over in this matchup
VT -9 Pitt always covers in this matchup
Kansas +25/ TCU Kansas hasn't covered in last 6 tries
Georgia/Mizzou under 63.5 Georgia's last 7 games have been overs
NEB -14 Cornhuskers never cover road games
Mem/Hou over 52.5 Memphis games are always under this year
Navy/Duke under 57 always goes over in this matchup
Umass/Miami OH over 45 UMASS has played in 5 unders in a row
Troy/ Georgia St under 61 Troy has played in 6 straight overs
FLA/LSU under 47.5 has played in 6 straight overs
Cen. Mich/Ohio over 52.5 has played in 7 straight unders
Western Mich/Buffalo under 52 Buffalo always goes over
Baylor/KST under 72.5 Baylor always goes over in this matchup
SJST +4 Colorado St. always covers
Tulane +10 East Carolina always win this matchup
Rice/TXSA under 54 Texas SA home games always go over
Wyoming/NM ounder 68.5 New Mexico always goes over
NW/Wisc under 57.5 Badgers always go over in this matchup
Washington +13.5 Oregon has covered 7 straight & 9 straight in this matchup
Stan/Utah under 54.5 Stanford games are always over (Troy West on Stanford-9)
Arkansas St -24.5 Arkansas St 0-4 ATS
Golden Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games & UAB has played in 6 straight overs
Tulsa/UTEP under 61.5 Tulsa & UTEP always go over
Col +24 & under 66 Sun Devils always cover & have played in 7 straight overs
Cal +24.5 Cal 0-10 ATS


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[BigdaddyQH]

And your record this year is?

[JabooFootball]

Not trying to be a wise ass- but I'm new here, so let's say the Ga/Mizzou game (most models have it at 80) if/when it goes over do you just auto-bet the next GA under since now you've got 8 games going over? What I'm getting at is- are there other parameters to your model or is it basically just bet against the streak until the streak is broken? I don't see the value of including o/u in previous seasons as you're doing with UGA as the past bowl game weighs little on public perception.

[Jayvegas420]

Just picking against the streak, this particular week on these particular games.
I'm not betting them, I don't have any money this weekend.
Just a list of games for someone who might be wondering where all the book's money has been going.
They have most of mine.
Everytime someone bets on Cal ATS, the books are loving it. When someone bets against them the books worry.
Do what you want with the picks but the streaks are verified. Like, the books have actually paid the over in an Arizona St. game 7 times in a row. Not the largest sample but still something the books might consider when they open at 66?
Who knows.
Good Luck with your picks.

[Jayvegas420]

My record's not very good.
Does it matter when considering the infiormation in the OP?

[JabooFootball]

Here's the problem I have with info like this. It assumes that bettors are soley betting on those particular streak and "the books are getting killed". It assumes the books are about short term p/l metrics, essentially this is based on a strawman.

[JabooFootball]

But there is some helpful information. Thank you.

[Jayvegas420]

No, I agree with you totally. I just feel that when you bet against a streak in BJ or Roulette say....You are still betting on cards dealt or a ball dropping on a wheel. When you bet vs. a streak in sportsbetting you are betting lines thaare adjusted by the books & partially by the publics opinion.
I don't know.
There are already a lot of people here who think I'm way off on Air Force & a few that don't think Navy/Duke can stay under the total.
We'll see.
I'll bet I go 17-10.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think it's very good information.. thank you OP

[Jayvegas420]

Air Force looks really good though!