Week 5...Over/Unders if your interested...

[usma1992]

I know in 2010 week 5 only yielded 50% but I am hoping for the best. I probably have to go back through the previous years and eliminate the division I vs. division II matchups or FBS whatever they call them. I am a little concerned the Ohio State vs. Florida A&M stats... but my guess at some level they have occurred the last few years. I will consider doing this in the off season. My picks... critique away... I am betting this week...Only bet that changed was Temple... it was an over but line move up too much. Sorry about the color... purple means I have bet it already. I am holding off on the later games to leverage my bankroll a little.

7:30 PM	VirginiaTech	0	GeorgiaTech	0		-7	41.5	33.0	U
7:30 PM	IowaState	0	Tulsa	0		-2.5	54.0	55.0	NB
8:00 PM	MTSU	0	BYU	0		-21.5	59.5	57.0	NB
9:00 PM	UtahState	0	SanJoseState	0		10	61.0	48.7	U
12:00 PM	NorthernIllinois	0	Purdue	0		3.5	58.0	68.5	O
12:00 PM	MiamiOhio	0	Illinois	0		-24.5	51.0	91.2	NB
12:00 PM	SMU	0	TCU	0		-20	52.5	53.0	NB
12:00 PM	Miami	0	USF	0		19.5	48.5	26.2	U
12:00 PM	SouthCarolina	0	UCF	0		7	53.0	44.8	U
12:00 PM	OklahomaState	0	WestVirginia	0		18.5	57.0	46.3	U
12:20 PM	SouthAlabama	0	Tennessee	0		-20	54.5	50.6	NB
12:30 PM	Virginia	0	Pitt	0		-6	52.0	51.0	NB
12:30 PM	EastCarolina	0	UNC	0		-12	59.5	49.5	U
2:00 PM	Navy	0	WesternKentucky	0		3	58.0	67.0	O
2:30 PM	Akron	0	BowlingGreen	0		-15	53.5	53.0	NB
3:00 PM	Troy	0	Duke	0		-10.5	67.0	72.0	NB
3:00 PM	Toledo	0	BallState	0		-2.5	66.0	62.0	NB
3:00 PM	Colorado	0	OregonState	0		-10.5	60.5	66.0	O
3:30 PM	Connecticut	0	Buffalo	0		2	48.5	46.5	NB
3:30 PM	CMU	0	NCState	0		-24	52.0	58.9	O
3:30 PM	FloridaState	0	BostonCollege	0		21.5	52.0	50.9	NB
3:30 PM	Iowa	0	Minnesota	0		1	47.0	52.5	NB
3:30 PM	UTEP	0	ColoradoState	0		-14	51.5	63.5	O
3:30 PM	LSU	0	Georgia	0		-3	61.5	66.0	NB
3:30 PM	Oklahoma	0	NotreDame	0		3.5	48.5	39.0	U
3:30 PM	WakeForest	0	Clemson	0		-28.5	58.5	32.0	U
4:00 PM	Army	0	LouisianaTech	0		-1	56.0	57.5	NB
4:00 PM	Houston	0	TexasSanAntonio	0		3	63.0	90.0	O
5:00 PM	Temple	0	Idaho	0		7.5	56.5	61.5	NB
6:30 PM	OleMiss	0	Alabama	0		-16	57.0	74.9	O
7:00 PM	KentState	0	WesternMichigan	0		-2	51.5	46.5	NB
7:00 PM	Arizona	0	Washington	0		-8.5	63.5	55.0	U
7:00 PM	Tulane	0	LouisianaMonroe	0		-12.5	56.5	60.5	NB
7:00 PM	Florida	0	Kentucky	0		13	46.0	45.6	NB
7:00 PM	Wyoming	0	TexasState	0		12	56.5	60.5	NB
7:00 PM	FloridaAtlantic	0	Rice	0		-13.5	52.5	62.5	O
7:30 PM	UAB	0	Vanderbilt	0		-21	55.5	53.1	NB
7:30 PM	ArkansasState	0	Missouri	0		-21	62.5	63.2	NB
8:00 PM	Wisconsin	0	OhioState	0		-7.5	54.0	49.5	NB
8:00 PM	UNLV	0	NewMexico	0		2.5	54.0	46.0	U
8:00 PM	SanDiegoState	0	NewMexicoState	0		17.5	54.0	64.0	O
10:00 PM	Stanford	0	WashingtonState	0		10	48.0	49.4	NB
10:15 PM	SouthernMiss	0	BoiseState	0		-27.5	56.5	66.9	O
10:30 PM	California	0	Oregon	0		-37	84.0	78.4	NB
10:30 PM	USC	0	ArizonaState	0		-6	50.5	49.0	NB
12:00 AM	FresnoState	0	Hawaii	0		18.5	58.0	66.2	O

[jtin103779]

va tech ga tech

Figure VA Tech defense tired after triple overtime game with Marshall and quick turnaround. Median totals of combined teams yields 49. Making large bet over unless you can talk me out of it.

[usma1992]

It is really tough to model that... actually impossible... but

I appreciate your comments. Maybe, you and others can use my statistical piece and pick and choose what you want. For me personally, once you bring in the human element and begin picking and choosing... I find human biases to be too much. Dave

[usma1992]

BTW ... thank you for the push back...

Enjoy Dave

[gojetsgomoxies]

what's with the color schemes?

any idea what kind of record you've had this season? has over or under worked out better for you?

i did some statistical checking and it seems like UNDER has been very good this year. not that many teams way OVER like most years after 4 weeks..

as i mentioned before won big last week with combo your picks and my brain so thank you

[blumpkin]

love the thread.. just to be clear in houston/texas san antonio your model predicts 90 total pts?

[usma1992]

Yep... the predictive piece is on the far right...

Well... I am live and 1-0 which is always better than 0-1. In addition, the bet that was not bet was dead on also. If they hadn't gone for it at the end with the lead and just kicked the field goal, Tulsa game would have hit my 55 points exactly. I am sure there are some bugs in the system that I will have to continue to work through... but yes it says 90 points and at this point I stand by my numbers and go from there.

[usma1992]

I hope you didn't go too deep... what I have learned over time is the points scored or given up are almost meaningless when determining the score of the game. Good Luck... I am live for the first time this year. I did notice the Tech line moved up from 41.5 to 42 or 42.5 so most were betting the way you did. I'm just happy the first two games were solid. Tulsa game was almost dead on and definitely shouldn't have been bet ... good have gone both directions.

[jjgold]

How are you doing with this model?

[2daBank]

How are you doing with this model?

it been pretty damn solid from what ive seen..

[usma1992]

The purple just means... I have placed the bet already ...

I have double placed bets before when I have been drinking LOL. So I try to keep better records now. I added the Air Force and Texas A&M game. Take the Air Force Over.... other one is a NB.

[gojetsgomoxies]

hey, got an O/U question unrelated (i think) to your model

what's your experience with O/U and weather?... horrible rainy day in pac nw

[usma1992]

Weather rating Rain and Wind(20mph or more) def factor on under.... Snow can actually add to the over. Defense can't react in snow so the slip and can't cut as well. In windy environment... less passing more running check out last years game Texas Tech/WVU... over/under was 70 scored 30-40 because of 30 mph winds. Rain also deters ...my guess about 90% of projected. In truth, that is the one feature I want to add... but I than have to go through 1500 games and find out what the weather was when the game was played. Enjoy

[gojetsgomoxies]

Weather rating Rain and Wind(20mph or more) def factor on under.... Snow can actually add to the over. Defense can't react in snow so the slip and can't cut as well. In windy environment... less passing more running check out last years game Texas Tech/WVU... over/under was 70 scored 30-40 because of 30 mph winds. Rain also deters ...my guess about 90% of projected. In truth, that is the one feature I want to add... but I than have to go through 1500 games and find out what the weather was when the game was played. Enjoy

thanks.... good response.... i see vegasinsider has a weather page..... although looks like weather has high correlation as you would expect... all of wsu/wash/ore/osu at home tomorrow and weather looks terrible (it's terrible right now..... wsu is in seattle so same weather as wash/ore/osu tomorrow generally)

[usma1992]

I guess we will see during Oregon state game... my system said over...

[usma1992]

I guess I would load up on Washington under and my system projects Oregon under also. I am not allowed to bet it because Oregon has too many attempts.

[gojetsgomoxies]

seeing you at 12-9 for the week. very nice