Week 4 Over/Under College Picks...

kobstopa · 09-17-13, 06:29 AM

nice one usma,
is that an excel 2013 you use ?
I have been look into picking the over only & will contribute on a separate post. Hopefully we can help people to make some good picks.

gl for the season

Rambo · 09-17-13, 03:05 PM

What is the second column from the right?

kobstopa · 09-17-13, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Rambo

What is the second column from the right?

Look like the predict score he putting it together

dymd3z · 09-17-13, 09:21 PM

Looks good.. .Keep us posted !!

gojetsgomoxies · 09-17-13, 09:50 PM

good stuff.... ok, i see that you have zero or no bet alot of games.... so you already are filtering out the predicted total close to the o/u line.

gutsy on ULM and baylor in the fifties. didn't baylor have 50+ at halftime vs. buffalo?

nms/ucla 75 points. that's NMS scoring alot of points i think

i see the vt/marshall over/under. thinking maybe just do marshall with the points or the moneyline

usma1992 · 09-17-13, 10:36 PM

I am trying to get to week 5 so this week... the

results still don't have enough data. Keep in mind I am only shooting for 60%. Most on the board think I am full of it, but I have spent 3 years developing this system and I think I have a reasonable chance of success. I will post NFL picks shortly.

usma1992 · 09-17-13, 10:39 PM

Picks with headings...

Time	Visitor		Home		Sprd	VEGAS	Proj	Bet
7:30 PM	Clemson	0	NCState	0	13.5	66.0	48.5	NB
9:00 PM	BoiseState	0	FresnoState	0	-3	67.5	86.0	O
12:00 PM	FloridaInt	0	Louisville	0	-41	56.5	69.0	NB
12:00 PM	WesternMichigan	0	Iowa	0	-17	48.5	46.7	NB
12:00 PM	Vanderbilt	0	Massachusetts	0	32	52.5	62.9	O
12:00 PM	WakeForest	0	Army	0	3.5	49.0	47.5	NB
12:00 PM	Marshall	0	VirginiaTech	0	-9.5	52.5	41.3	U
12:00 PM	UNC	0	GeorgiaTech	0	-6	60.5	54.0	U
12:00 PM	LouisianaTech	0	Kansas	0	-10.5	49.0	51.0	NB
12:00 PM	MTSU	0	FloridaAtlantic	0	4.5	47.5	57.5	O
12:20 PM	NorthTexas	0	Georgia	0	-32.5	67.0	70.8	NB
12:30 PM	Tulane	0	Syracuse	0	-14.5	54.5	47.5	U
1:00 PM	BallState	0	EasternMichigan	0	11	56.5	67.5	O
3:30 PM	Tennessee	0	Florida	0	-17.5	47.5	49.7	NB
3:30 PM	Purdue	0	Wisconsin	0	-24.5	48.0	65.5	O
3:30 PM	KentState	0	PennState	0	-19.5	54.0	59.5	O
3:30 PM	WestVirginia	0	Maryland	0	-6	52.5	52.3	NB
3:30 PM	UtahState	0	USC	0	-6	52.0	30.0	U
4:00 PM	LouisianaMonroe	0	Baylor	0	-28	74.0	56.1	U
4:30 PM	ArkansasState	0	Memphis	0	4	54.0	60.0	O
6:00 PM	LaLafayette	0	Akron	0	8	64.5	71.3	O
7:00 PM	ArizonaState	0	Stanford	0	-8	52.5	49.0	NB
7:00 PM	TexasState	0	TexasTech	0	-26.5	57.0	67.8	O
7:30 PM	Troy	0	MississippiState	0	-14	60.0	60.0	NB
8:00 PM	Hawaii	0	Nevada	0	-11.5	0.0	64.0	N
8:00 PM	KansasState	0	Texas	0	-3.5	0.0	49.5	N
8:00 PM	TexasSanAntonio	0	UTEP	0	-9.5	59.0	86.5	O
10:15 PM	Wyoming	0	AirForce	0	3.5	63.5	76.0	O
10:15 PM	Utah	0	BYU	0	-7	60.5	60.0	NB
10:30 PM	NewMexicoState	0	UCLA	0	-42	66.0	74.8	O

usma1992 · 09-21-13, 05:38 AM

First two games this weekend.. who is closer on the point total... me or vegas...

Both go to my model... enjoy the weekend. System picked the under in Kansas City(NFL) game also....enjoy...Dave

V4Value · 09-21-13, 06:17 AM

USMA out of 5. I'm with you on 4 and one NB. Keep up the hard work and graph is simple and great! BOL

AceKingHigh · 09-21-13, 07:58 AM

Sounds good! do you play this system already or just testing it?
How successful was it in prev. weeks? please give us some stats so far

and how are you picking your ACTUAL PLAYS?

gojetsgomoxies · 09-21-13, 10:15 PM

hey, i did really well over/under this week and i did combo my brain and your model. so thank you... didn't realize you split it into two posts. just thought you only modelled some of the games. my bad.

you ever thought of grading your picks by stars or betting units... big difference between 20% and 6% off on line. i realize that a bunch are no play so maybe you are doing that already.

thanks again... p.s. i like that your model has real outlier picks i.e. makes it very clear that this game will be very low or high scoring.

usma1992 · 09-22-13, 02:19 AM

Well week 4 was successful and I continue to add small features....

A couple of more games were added since my original post. I guess not all the lines were out. The model hit 55.2% or 16 out of 29. Glad you were successful in your betting. I have had many just use my model as a guide line. I am personally trying to remove the human element and not get attached to the picks. Very happy with this weeks success. I will be looking into the actual data etc... to see what week spots I need to continue to address. Unlike others, I believe my model will continue to evolve. Once you have the baseline approach down, you can begin to look for your weak spots to see if they also occurred in the previous 3 years. Good luck on Pro... I think I posted my picks. So far 1-0 on NFL this weekend. However, I will not be betting that until the week after next.

gojetsgomoxies · 09-22-13, 10:37 PM

hey thought i'd append this here as it's a good o/u thread.

i looked at the best over and under teams since and including 2010... unfortunately my rankings since 2010 incl. this year so it's slightly biased...

anyway, here are the top 10 over and under teams since 2010 and how they've done this year:

baylor +9 per game (thought it would be higher but their defense is stronger)
indiana +14
ec -7
LL +7
ASU +10
tulane +3
ole miss +3
nillinois +9
ball +6
wisconsin -3
oks -3

so a fair number have held in there. and none have collapsed in total points. oops, didn't see EC.... also, if my list was 2010 to 2012 (and didn't include the games this year) LT would show up as a top OVER team that has dropped really far. LT is -19.5 O/U per game.

surprised wv wasn't on list but they have been that great an over team the last 3 years either. 46% O/U +1 point per game for WV

best UNDER teams since 2010

nd zero points o/u this season
bc -8
byu -12
miami ohio -16
bg -4
smu -4
miss state 0
iowa state +1
vt -7 (sort of surprised me with higher scoring marshall game)
buffalo +*

so really all under teams, except buffalo, have been break-even or profitable UNDER Teams.

kobstopa · 09-23-13, 01:45 AM

I hate playing under for the most part and so are the public at large. The good thing about over is, it's a great feeling to have by 3rd quarter in some games you know you are getting pay already