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you're going to see a lot more volatility in Weeks 1/2/3 than you will later in the year.
When it comes to gauging the importance of line movement in football, you're better off using the widely available "opener" as a reference point anyways. With competition among books to get the first line out, books tend to make a lot of mistakes, so if someone jumps the gun and puts out a line thats a full TD off of where it ultimately finds equilibrium, it can be misleading. You have to decide whether the original line was a good one or not. 99% of the time, a big move means the opener was trash and therefore not really that helpful.
Also, making any conclusion on Friday night can be a mistake as you can expect money to come in on the other side to some degree on gameday, with the number often crashing back towards the opener. You need to look at the full timeframe to get the best result out of you line movement analysis.Comment