Week 3 Leans

RavensFan2k3 · 09-10-13, 05:29 PM

Interested in hearing your rationale behind Ohio

Eric22174 · 09-10-13, 05:44 PM

Currently purely based on line movement. When the spread moves -2 points (example -6 to -8) the record for a favorite in this position is 87-105. Ohio isn't as bad as they have looked of late. This is still a very talented team with a great coach.

Eric22174 · 09-10-13, 05:51 PM

In addition......just wanted to throw out there that Ohio is playing at home. Ohio won this match up last year and the QB who threw for 3 td's along with the RB who rushed for over 100 yards will be playing in this game. Marshall has no defense.

RavensFan2k3 · 09-10-13, 07:05 PM

Thanks for the insight bro! What about yout Washington pick? I like it, just seems like 10 is alot to cover for them on the road, you kno?

Eric22174 · 09-10-13, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Thanks for the insight bro! What about yout Washington pick? I like it, just seems like 10 is alot to cover for them on the road, you kno?

Washington played very-very well against Boise State. This could be the year Price breaks out. I have the opening spread at -7.5 and currently at -10. The movement suggests if it stays the same that the record for a favorite with a movement of -2.5 is 85-59. On top of that the OVER is 19-31 in this position with the total moving 4 points towards the over (58-62 O/U). I think this will be a game where Washington wins by 14. You have to remember week one Illinois gave up 34 points to Southern Illinois. This Illinois team is no different from years past. They start out good but they are still the same team with the same scheme. Washington had one extra week to rest for this game.

Eric22174 · 09-10-13, 07:49 PM

Illinois is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Illinois is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Illinois is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
Illinois is 2-17 SU in 19 recent games as a double-digit underdog.

Washington returns it's starting RB from last year and the top WR. The top WR was pretty non-existent in the win against Boise State so that speaks volumes about how this team has multiple ways to score. They incorporated a more up-tempo offense and that proves to be very successful for Keith Price.

Eric22174 · 09-10-13, 07:58 PM

Added Leans:

Based on movement according to TeamRankings.

Arkansas Under 49.5 - Win/Loss record O/U (84-121)
Ball State Under 61 - (41-56)
Fresno State Under 66.5 (41-56)
Rutgers Over 51 (78-60)
Auburn Under 51 (85-104)
Pitt Over 52 (78-60)
Michigan Under 56 (85-104)

beerman2619 · 09-11-13, 01:01 AM

Washington Also Gets There Top Offensive Threat Back. Tight End Jenkins Didn't Play Vs Boise St. He Is One Of The If Not Best Tight End In College Football.

Night-Tripper · 09-11-13, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by beerman2619

Washington Also Gets There Top Offensive Threat Back. Tight End Jenkins Didn't Play Vs Boise St. He Is One Of The If Not Best Tight End In College Football.

surffreak · 09-11-13, 09:41 PM

bg pick is a

andywend · 09-11-13, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by Eric22174

Alabama -7.5

Army +28.5 - Probably won't play.

Ohio +8

Bowling Green +2.5

New Mexico +21

Western Kentucky -10

Mississippi +4.5 - Upset ALERT

Washington -10

UCF +5 - Upset ALERT

South Carolina -13.5

Tulsa +24.5

Florida Atlantic +12.5 - Probably won't play.

Western Michigan +31

Any thoughts and/or opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance fellas. Have a great day!!!!

While there might be a few people who actually care about the games you like, why would anyone care what games you're "leaning" on.

Hotlanta Steam · 09-11-13, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by andywend

While there might be a few people who actually care about the games you like, why would anyone care what games you're "leaning" on.

So he can open up discussion about the games...last time I checked this was a college football betting forum.... not a let me post my

picks and show you what a genius I am forum...

gojetsgomoxies · 09-11-13, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by Eric22174

Illinois is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Illinois is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Illinois is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
Illinois is 2-17 SU in 19 recent games as a double-digit underdog.

Washington returns it's starting RB from last year and the top WR. The top WR was pretty non-existent in the win against Boise State so that speaks volumes about how this team has multiple ways to score. They incorporated a more up-tempo offense and that proves to be very successful for Keith Price.

thanks for the information.... i would note though that illinois covered the spread by 36 points last game, and against a "thought to be" very good opponent......... i said before last week's game that illinois is probably a good fade but that the trend is pretty long in the tooth.

washington covered by 28 in its only game, and that was against a "thought to be" elite team.....

i like illinois at home (apparently chicago, but last time i looked that was in illinois) but probably won't play it.

gojetsgomoxies · 09-11-13, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Eric22174

Currently purely based on line movement. When the spread moves -2 points (example -6 to -8) the record for a favorite in this position is 87-105. Ohio isn't as bad as they have looked of late. This is still a very talented team with a great coach.

very interested in the stat you cited....... is that from a website/service or do you track it yourself?.... there has been crazy movement from openers this year, it seems like . and then sometimes that opener wasn't even the true opener.. i can't see how taking a team that has moved adversely 4-5 points (less favourable to bet) can be good value.

Eric22174 · 09-12-13, 05:00 AM

It's a combined stat and trend from TeamRankings and Decision Tree Power Rankings dating back to 2008 to current. It's been pretty solid. I get the opening lines and closing lines from Vegas Insider. I use the spread provided by Team Rankings as well because that's what the data represents. I do not use Scores and Odds.

Believe it or not the record if a game had moved -4.5 pts is 12-7-1. Now see below. This is a chart based on the Favorite moving up. (example -6 to -9). That would indicate a movement of -3

-9.5	1	0-0-1	--
-8.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%
-7	1	0-1-0	0.0%
-6.5	3	1-2-0	33.3%
-6	4	2-2-0	50.0%
-5.5	5	3-2-0	60.0%
-5	10	6-4-0	60.0%
-4.5	20	12-7-1	63.2%