Originally posted by AznRacer305
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Sorry saw this too late, but if I didn't list it as one of my plays then it didn't make it through filters. Anything I give you would simply be a lean as either didn't make it through algorithm or didn't make it through sims...Comment -
May I ask you for your current season record?
GL with today, Leaning with you.Comment -
Originally posted by John Deere
See Mr. Reaper's post #1532.... 47-37 prior to this week's games.Comment -
Looking like a nice 10-5 weekend for us so it puts us at 57-42 on the short season so far
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great work reaper!Originally posted by vegasreaperLooking like a nice 10-5 weekend for us so it puts us at 57-42 on the short season so far
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just wondering, do you do this for nfl as well by any chance?Comment -
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Another successful weekend thanks reaperComment -
You got it AznRacer305, glad I could helpOriginally posted by AznRacer305
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reaper, been recently following you since a couple weeks ago. I'm a fan! thanks for the great picks and keep it up!
anything for this week's games?Comment -
Reeeeaaaaaapppppeeerrrrrr. Where you at mate?Comment -
Sorry everyone been a busy week running a tad bit late on these but here we go. Let's all get to the windows
120-TOLEDO-28
131-FLAINTL+11
140-WISC-24
149-LATECH+13.5
154-OHIO-4
163-NEB+2.5
167-OKLA-4
170-GATECH-3
173-MICHST+7
179-IDAHO+14
181-TULSA+14
184-SMISS-9
196-COL+8
197-AKRON+11
199-TCU-20.5
211-SDSU+2.5
213-OREG+2.5
AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL ~Comment -
Well thanks to another profitable week at 12-5 now we sit on the year at 69-47
cheers to everyone who follows see you next weekComment -
Always a fan. Hope retirement I'd goodComment -
nice work again reaper!!Originally posted by vegasreaperWell thanks to another profitable week at 12-5 now we sit on the year at 69-47
cheers to everyone who follows see you next week
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Here we go for another profitable week everyone
307-TEMPLE+3
327-INDIANA+17
330-MIAMI FLORIDA+7
350-ALABAMA-15.5
358-NEBRASKA-7
364-IDAHO+1.5
365-HOUSTON-21
378-LOUISVILLE-7.5
388-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-13
392-ARKANSAS-6
394-OKLAHOMA-14.5
396-OKLAHOMA STATE-32
403-FLORIDA ATLANTIC-6
AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL
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Temple is my first main play of the weekend and saw others on Ark and Ville.Comment -
Gah, I hate it when I'm on the other side of you, especially on my big plays! I like Clemson to dominate. BOL buddy!Originally posted by vegasreaperHere we go for another profitable week everyone
307-TEMPLE+3
327-INDIANA+17
330-MIAMI FLORIDA+7
350-ALABAMA-15.5
358-NEBRASKA-7
364-IDAHO+1.5
365-HOUSTON-21
378-LOUISVILLE-7.5
388-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-13
392-ARKANSAS-6
394-OKLAHOMA-14.5
396-OKLAHOMA STATE-32
403-FLORIDA ATLANTIC-6
AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALLComment -
Clemson just not the same team on the road my fiend . One road game this year and they didn't cover that one and it was with Louisville. But good Luck to you my friendOriginally posted by cmoney11Comment -
Hey Reap,
Do you think the BYU line of 50.5 is too high to touch? Seems like 2 / 3 Td's a quarter will be a piece of cake.Comment -
I don't mess with those kind of games my friend but good luck to you if you play it 7 TD's and a FG to ZEROOriginally posted by Blaker88Comment -
Further on that Blaker88 BYU is 7-0 vs FCS foes under Mendenhall and Wagner is 0-3 vs FBS schools having been outscored by 95-6 margin over the last 3 years. Too many points for me even though BYU only has a bye on deck and then sorry San Jose StateComment -
hey vegas. what is your take on the OK game? i can get OK at -14 but TT +14 looks pretty solid. unless im missing something?Comment -
I listed OKLAHOMA-14.5 as one of my plays so obvious who I likeOriginally posted by madLyfeComment -
Insight on LA Monroe/Idaho there reaper? I see you have the Vandals +1.5...was leaning ULM myself as a rather strong play.Comment -
My Sims on this game actually have this game within 2 points either way so I will take the home team getting the points in this revenge gameOriginally posted by TheSchafeComment -
A couple more tidbits for you my friend. 67% of the betting public are on ULM and 89% on them moneyline. Yet the line has moved the opposite way, tells me someone knows something and it usually isn't the general public
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Have you seen overall success in tailing reverse line movement? Always just looked at it as a myth, honestly.Comment -
Oh no my friend it is a reality I know people who make money this way regularly. These casinos and offshore books aren't being opened and built on the public being right...There are 2 games this week that fall under the rule of 70. I like to look at them closer to game time but they areOriginally posted by TheSchafe
372-MARYLAND+6.5
456-KC-2.5Comment -
456 was a quarterback issue. Not saying KC doesn't cover, but this wasn't organic.Originally posted by vegasreaperComment -
What is the 70% rule....and us its just a college football thing ?Comment -
wrong postComment -
curious as well. What's this 70 rule?Comment -
I think I found the answer... I'm copying and pasting here.
Once we identify that the public loves a certain side, we can start tracking the line movement. If the line moves toward the side that 70 percent of bettors are on, it’s as expected. Bookmakers are going to push the line up so they can induce some money on the other side. These kind of standard moves are not worth reacting to when buildingDFS lineups.
However, when a line moves the opposite way of those 70-plus percent of tickets, we have a reverse line move. Take a step back and think about what is happening there. The books are getting flooded with action on Side A; your friends, the barber, your mom and all the guys on ESPN think Side A is going to cover. But the books are moving the line toward Side B. That should illicit a big eyebrow raise and a “hmmmm.” The red flag is up.
So why would a line move the opposite way of all the action? It’s really quite simple. Even though tickets are coming in on Side A at a 70 percent or more clip, the money is actually coming in on Side B. And not just any money – the sharpest money in the world. The kind of money that moves a line in the face of heavy public perception. A book may take a thousand $10 bets on Side A, but then they took one $50,000 bet on Side B from a bettor they know to be world-class. So even though the ticket count remains extremely lopsided, the money shows the books that they have to move the line away from what the public likes.
This is easier to see in an example. During Week 15 of the 2015 season, the 10-3 Packers were playing the 7-6 Bills. The line opened Green Bay -6 and roughly 80 percent of the tickets were on Aaron Rodgers and company. By Sunday morning, the line was down to Green Bay -3.5 – a clear and significant reverse line move that proved the sharp money was flooding in on Kyle Orton’s Bills. When I saw this, I immediately made sure I had zero percent of Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelsonin my DFS lineups.Comment -
bumpOriginally posted by vegasreaperHere we go for another profitable week everyone
307-TEMPLE+3
327-INDIANA+17
330-MIAMI FLORIDA+7
350-ALABAMA-15.5
358-NEBRASKA-7
364-IDAHO+1.5
365-HOUSTON-21
378-LOUISVILLE-7.5
388-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-13
392-ARKANSAS-6
394-OKLAHOMA-14.5
396-OKLAHOMA STATE-32
403-FLORIDA ATLANTIC-6
AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALLComment
