80.5 % College Football Thread......LOL

**vegasreaper** · 10-08-15, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by AznRacer305

Reaper any suggestion for tonight games?

Sorry saw this too late, but if I didn't list it as one of my plays then it didn't make it through filters. Anything I give you would simply be a lean as either didn't make it through algorithm or didn't make it through sims...

**John Deere** · 10-10-15, 09:59 AM

May I ask you for your current season record?

GL with today, Leaning with you.

**Tanko** · 10-10-15, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by John Deere

May I ask you for your current season record?

GL with today, Leaning with you.

See Mr. Reaper's post #1532.... 47-37 prior to this week's games.

**vegasreaper** · 10-11-15, 01:06 AM

Looking like a nice 10-5 weekend for us so it puts us at 57-42 on the short season so far

**Can U Tank It** · 10-11-15, 07:47 AM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Looking like a nice 10-5 weekend for us so it puts us at 57-42 on the short season so far

great work reaper!

**tr4sh** · 10-11-15, 10:48 AM

just wondering, do you do this for nfl as well by any chance?

**vegasreaper** · 10-11-15, 06:50 PM

Here you go tr4sh

I Sukk at NFL - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2590870-i-sukk-nfl.html

NFL betting and handicapping forum: discuss football picks, NFL odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results.

**AznRacer305** · 10-12-15, 07:47 AM

Another successful weekend thanks reaper

**vegasreaper** · 10-12-15, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by AznRacer305

Another successful weekend thanks reaper

You got it AznRacer305, glad I could help

**9fives** · 10-15-15, 07:52 AM

reaper, been recently following you since a couple weeks ago. I'm a fan! thanks for the great picks and keep it up!

anything for this week's games?

**sheikster403** · 10-16-15, 01:35 PM

Reeeeaaaaaapppppeeerrrrrr. Where you at mate?

**vegasreaper** · 10-16-15, 04:13 PM

Sorry everyone been a busy week running a tad bit late on these but here we go. Let's all get to the windows

120-TOLEDO-28
131-FLAINTL+11
140-WISC-24
149-LATECH+13.5
154-OHIO-4
163-NEB+2.5
167-OKLA-4
170-GATECH-3
173-MICHST+7
179-IDAHO+14
181-TULSA+14
184-SMISS-9
196-COL+8
197-AKRON+11
199-TCU-20.5
211-SDSU+2.5
213-OREG+2.5

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL ~

**vegasreaper** · 10-18-15, 01:21 AM

Well thanks to another profitable week at 12-5 now we sit on the year at 69-47

cheers to everyone who follows see you next week

**shopbar picks** · 10-18-15, 01:47 AM

Always a fan. Hope retirement I'd good

**Can U Tank It** · 10-18-15, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Well thanks to another profitable week at 12-5 now we sit on the year at 69-47

cheers to everyone who follows see you next week

nice work again reaper!!

**vegasreaper** · 10-22-15, 01:24 AM

Here we go for another profitable week everyone

307-TEMPLE+3
327-INDIANA+17
330-MIAMI FLORIDA+7
350-ALABAMA-15.5
358-NEBRASKA-7
364-IDAHO+1.5
365-HOUSTON-21
378-LOUISVILLE-7.5
388-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-13
392-ARKANSAS-6
394-OKLAHOMA-14.5
396-OKLAHOMA STATE-32
403-FLORIDA ATLANTIC-6

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

**reigle9** · 10-22-15, 06:53 AM

Temple is my first main play of the weekend and saw others on Ark and Ville.

**cmoney11** · 10-22-15, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Here we go for another profitable week everyone

307-TEMPLE+3
327-INDIANA+17
330-MIAMI FLORIDA+7
350-ALABAMA-15.5
358-NEBRASKA-7
364-IDAHO+1.5
365-HOUSTON-21
378-LOUISVILLE-7.5
388-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-13
392-ARKANSAS-6
394-OKLAHOMA-14.5
396-OKLAHOMA STATE-32
403-FLORIDA ATLANTIC-6

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

Gah, I hate it when I'm on the other side of you, especially on my big plays! I like Clemson to dominate. BOL buddy!

**vegasreaper** · 10-22-15, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by cmoney11

Gah, I hate it when I'm on the other side of you, especially on my big plays! I like Clemson to dominate. BOL buddy!

Clemson just not the same team on the road my fiend . One road game this year and they didn't cover that one and it was with Louisville. But good Luck to you my friend

**Blaker88** · 10-23-15, 11:00 PM

Hey Reap,

Do you think the BYU line of 50.5 is too high to touch? Seems like 2 / 3 Td's a quarter will be a piece of cake.

**vegasreaper** · 10-24-15, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by Blaker88

Hey Reap,

Do you think the BYU line of 50.5 is too high to touch? Seems like 2 / 3 Td's a quarter will be a piece of cake.

I don't mess with those kind of games my friend but good luck to you if you play it 7 TD's and a FG to ZERO

**vegasreaper** · 10-24-15, 12:32 AM

Further on that Blaker88 BYU is 7-0 vs FCS foes under Mendenhall and Wagner is 0-3 vs FBS schools having been outscored by 95-6 margin over the last 3 years. Too many points for me even though BYU only has a bye on deck and then sorry San Jose State

**madLyfe** · 10-24-15, 12:39 AM

hey vegas. what is your take on the OK game? i can get OK at -14 but TT +14 looks pretty solid. unless im missing something?

**vegasreaper** · 10-24-15, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by madLyfe

hey vegas. what is your take on the OK game? i can get OK at -14 but TT +14 looks pretty solid. unless im missing something?

I listed OKLAHOMA-14.5 as one of my plays so obvious who I like

**TheSchafe** · 10-24-15, 01:23 AM

Insight on LA Monroe/Idaho there reaper? I see you have the Vandals +1.5...was leaning ULM myself as a rather strong play.

**vegasreaper** · 10-24-15, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by TheSchafe

Insight on LA Monroe/Idaho there reaper? I see you have the Vandals +1.5...was leaning ULM myself as a rather strong play.

My Sims on this game actually have this game within 2 points either way so I will take the home team getting the points in this revenge game

**vegasreaper** · 10-24-15, 01:35 AM

A couple more tidbits for you my friend. 67% of the betting public are on ULM and 89% on them moneyline. Yet the line has moved the opposite way, tells me someone knows something and it usually isn't the general public

**TheSchafe** · 10-24-15, 01:40 AM

Have you seen overall success in tailing reverse line movement? Always just looked at it as a myth, honestly.

**vegasreaper** · 10-24-15, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by TheSchafe

Have you seen overall success in tailing reverse line movement? Always just looked at it as a myth, honestly.

Oh no my friend it is a reality I know people who make money this way regularly. These casinos and offshore books aren't being opened and built on the public being right...There are 2 games this week that fall under the rule of 70. I like to look at them closer to game time but they are
372-MARYLAND+6.5
456-KC-2.5

**POOLSIDE** · 10-24-15, 04:14 AM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Oh no my friend it is a reality I know people who make money this way regularly. These casinos and offshore books aren't being opened and built on the public being right...There are 2 games this week that fall under the rule of 70. I like to look at them closer to game time but they are
372-MARYLAND+6.5
456-KC-2.5

456 was a quarterback issue. Not saying KC doesn't cover, but this wasn't organic.

**wusntmeman** · 10-24-15, 07:41 AM

What is the 70% rule....and us its just a college football thing ?

**dvb02** · 10-24-15, 09:17 AM

wrong post

**wufpakman21** · 10-24-15, 09:23 AM

curious as well. What's this 70 rule?

**wufpakman21** · 10-24-15, 09:26 AM

I think I found the answer... I'm copying and pasting here.

Once we identify that the public loves a certain side, we can start tracking the line movement. If the line moves toward the side that 70 percent of bettors are on, it’s as expected. Bookmakers are going to push the line up so they can induce some money on the other side. These kind of standard moves are not worth reacting to when buildingDFS lineups.
However, when a line moves the opposite way of those 70-plus percent of tickets, we have a reverse line move. Take a step back and think about what is happening there. The books are getting flooded with action on Side A; your friends, the barber, your mom and all the guys on ESPN think Side A is going to cover. But the books are moving the line toward Side B. That should illicit a big eyebrow raise and a “hmmmm.” The red flag is up.
So why would a line move the opposite way of all the action? It’s really quite simple. Even though tickets are coming in on Side A at a 70 percent or more clip, the money is actually coming in on Side B. And not just any money – the sharpest money in the world. The kind of money that moves a line in the face of heavy public perception. A book may take a thousand $10 bets on Side A, but then they took one $50,000 bet on Side B from a bettor they know to be world-class. So even though the ticket count remains extremely lopsided, the money shows the books that they have to move the line away from what the public likes.
This is easier to see in an example. During Week 15 of the 2015 season, the 10-3 Packers were playing the 7-6 Bills. The line opened Green Bay -6 and roughly 80 percent of the tickets were on Aaron Rodgers and company. By Sunday morning, the line was down to Green Bay -3.5 – a clear and significant reverse line move that proved the sharp money was flooding in on Kyle Orton’s Bills. When I saw this, I immediately made sure I had zero percent of Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelsonin my DFS lineups.

**dvb02** · 10-24-15, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Here we go for another profitable week everyone

307-TEMPLE+3
327-INDIANA+17
330-MIAMI FLORIDA+7
350-ALABAMA-15.5
358-NEBRASKA-7
364-IDAHO+1.5
365-HOUSTON-21
378-LOUISVILLE-7.5
388-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-13
392-ARKANSAS-6
394-OKLAHOMA-14.5
396-OKLAHOMA STATE-32
403-FLORIDA ATLANTIC-6

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

bump