I'm back! NCAAF 2013 Season long picks

[weatherhawg]

Thanks vyomguy...

I'd like to see more deep detailed discussion of games than what I see here sometimes. But also be careful bc I haven't finished my research on the leans I posted earlier and I'm only batting ~.500 on bets this year so far. Tail at your own risk :-)

Glad I could be of some assistance though...

[weatherhawg]

Locked in plays for today:

Michigan State +1.5 over Iowa
Arkansas +13 over Florida
Mississippi State +7.5 over LSU (regret not getting this line at 9.5 or even 10 but still think it could come down to one possession.. Under was also a consideration)
Auburn +3 over Mississippi (I think they win outright)
Kentucky TT under 17 (-125)
South Carolina -21 over Kentucky (coach Mark Stoops lamented over Kentucky players' effort mid-week during practice...)

Parlays:

6 teamer (pays 15:1) - Michigan State +3, Georgia -500, Arkansas +14, Mississippi State +14, Auburn +3, and Kentucky TT under 17

3 teamer (pays 1:2) - Georgia -500, Alabama -infinity, and OU -350

[weatherhawg]

Yet another break-even week. Disappointed in how Arkansas got away from a productive run game against. Florida also exposed weaknesses in Hogs pass defense, but wasn't really able to run much due to a dominant effort by the Hogs' d-line.

Kentucky gave far more effort than I anticipated and backdoored their line like no other lol...

LSU and Florida will be interesting. I feel like Florida has the defense to slow LSU down in a major way. Love backing strong defensive teams on the road...

Leans this week:
Rutgers +19, ML over Louisville
Oklahoma -14 over Texas
Florida +7 over LSU
Baylor -17 over Kansas State, over 73
Texas A&M/Mississippi over 75 (some upset potential here but I bet A&M wins by 3 or so)
Michigan State -10 over Indiana

ML parlay:
Oklahoma over Texas
Texas Tech over Iowa State
Michigan State over Indiana
Baylor over Kansas State
Wisconsin over Northwestern
Mississippi State over Bowling Green

[PhilTheTHRILL]

Yet another break-even week. Disappointed in how Arkansas got away from a productive run game against. Florida also exposed weaknesses in Hogs pass defense, but wasn't really able to run much due to a dominant effort by the Hogs' d-line.

Kentucky gave far more effort than I anticipated and backdoored their line like no other lol...

LSU and Florida will be interesting. I feel like Florida has the defense to slow LSU down in a major way. Love backing strong defensive teams on the road...

Leans this week:
Rutgers +19, ML over Louisville
Oklahoma -14 over Texas
Florida +7 over LSU
Baylor -17 over Kansas State, over 73
Texas A&M/Mississippi over 75 (some upset potential here but I bet A&M wins by 3 or so)
Michigan State -10 over Indiana

ML parlay:
Oklahoma over Texas
Texas Tech over Iowa State
Michigan State over Indiana
Baylor over Kansas State
Wisconsin over Northwestern
Mississippi State over Bowling Green

I really like the parlay.

Not a fan of Florida or Rutgers though. Those are quite the stretch in my mind. But hey, someone has to be right! BOL to ya! guess we shall see

[weatherhawg]

Thanks for the feedback Phil...

Rutgers is a stretch I admit... But they will have to find a way to get to Bridgewater to keep it close. Gonna do more research to cap this. Also believe Florida's offense can move it on LSU and Florida's defense may be the best in the nation... But betting against LSU last week cost me. Will look more into it but gut feeling says Florida will keep it within the number...

[weatherhawg]

Went ahead and bet on Rutgers +19... Felt like the spread was too bit for the talent disparity between the two teams (very little)...though Bridgewater could easily get going and destroy me. Also got Rutgers +970 for very small...

[weatherhawg]

At this rate I don't even think Rutgers +38 is safe...let alone +19. Rutgers is having trouble offensively and Louisville is moving it with ease at times.... Yikes!

Still a half to go and a lot can happen... But not pretty right now. I'm afraid Louisville is legit :-/

[weatherhawg]

Notice OU/Texas line has fallen to -11 at some places... yikes! That scares me off the line a bit. Hope ML bet is still safe...

Locking in these plays.. Good luck to everyone today!!!
Florida +7.5 over LSU
Baylor -17 over Kansas State, over 73
Texas A&M/Mississippi over 75 (some upset potential here but I bet A&M wins by 3 or so)
Michigan State -10 over Indiana

Oklahoma over Texas
Texas Tech over Iowa State
Michigan State over Indiana
Baylor over Kansas State
Wisconsin over Northwestern
Mississippi State over Bowling Green

[weatherhawg]

Also added this parlay for a small bet. Iowa State worries me a bit (+14 seems like too many points but they're coming off a tough, last minute home loss)

Parlay (pays 5:1)
Oklahoma ML
Michigan State ML
Texas Tech ML
Texas A&M ML
Mississippi State ML
Georgia ML
Baylor ML
Wisconsin ML
Alabama ML

[weatherhawg]

3-4 last week... :-/

New leans for week 8...
Arkansas TT under 11
Florida -3 over Missouri
LSU/Mississippi over 59
LSU TT over 34
Florida State ML over Clemson
Auburn +12.5 over Texas A&M
Tennessee +7.5 over S Carolina
W. Virginia +7 and ML over Texas Tech
TCU +7 over Oklahoma State

[weatherhawg]

Betting UCF +14.5 and under 56 tonight... Feel like UCF might be live coming off of a bye week but going to hold off on the ML for now...

[weatherhawg]

Hoping for a few upsets today...

Locked in WV +5.5, Florida -3, UCLA +4.5, Georgia Tech -7 and a 4 teamed ML parlay: NW, Cincy, A&M, and Ohio State

Good luck everyone!

[weatherhawg]

Really kicking myself for not betting Tennessee +7.5. Tennessee covering easily with a real chance at winning SU...

[weatherhawg]

Upset potential this week as well. I have several leans but probably not going to bet each of these...

WV over Kansas State (ML and spread)
Baylor/Kansas over 66
S. Carolina ML over Mizzou
Mich. St. ML over Illinois
Tennessee +28 over Alabama
Connecticut +23 over UCF
Georgia St. +12 over UL Monroe (ML small)
SDSU +8 over Fresno
Texas ML over TCU

Also several ML parlay bets:
A&M
Miss. State
Va. Tech
SMU
Ohio St.
Mich. St.

OU -7 looks enticing as Texas Tech doesn't really match up well in this game. Staying away for now but will watch things...

[weatherhawg]

Late to the games today.... here's a few picks:

Tennessee +28 over Alabama
Tennessee ML over Alabama (very small...feel like this game could come down to one possession)
West Virginia +13/+385 ML over Kansas State
UCLA TT under 24.5
OU -7 over Texas Tech
OU/Texas Tech under 59
Texas +3, ML over TCU

ML Parlay (pays 6:5):
Miss. St
Virginia Tech
Florida State
Texas A&M
Ohio State

[weatherhawg]

Grief. Tennessee/Alabama was over before it started, WV gives up 21 in the 4th quarter after leading a good part of the game, and Virginia Tech lays an egg at home. Ridiculous.

[weatherhawg]

And just like that, Tech takes the lead endangering my OU -7 bet. WTF!