HuskerExpat's 2013 College Football Thread

[HuskerExpat]

Posting my picks. I'm happy to hear opinions, etc., or to have someone bash my horrible weeks. Frankly, I don't expect most people to even read this thread, and am doing it mostly for my own purposes.

My approach:

1. Find value in the numbers, be it early or late in the week.

2. Each bet is a either 1 unit or a fraction of 1 unit.

3. I don't believe in any "best bet of the week" b.s. If my line is varies from the actual line (in a significant enough way), then there is value there and I bet it. Some Saturdays that might mean 30 bets others it might mean 5.

4. I'll try to keep a running total of the number of units up or down for the year.

[HuskerExpat]

Games for Thursday, 8/29/13

I always believe the early weeks have the softest lines. This year is no different as I have 6 bets for the first Thursday night.

1. Minnessota -14 (vs. UNLV): 1/2 unit
2. Tulsa +3.5 (at Bowling Green): 1 unit
3. UCF -21 (vs. Akron): 1/4 unit
4. Utah -2.5 (vs. Utah St.): 1 unit
5. Vanderbilt +3 (vs. Ole Miss): 3/4 unit
6. Rutgers +9.5 (at Fresno St.): 1 unit

[HuskerExpat]

And you can see, I find safety in numbers. My approach is not to score one big win each week but to make a bunch of bets with a small total +EV.

[HuskerExpat]

I always believe the early weeks have the softest lines. This year is no different as I have 6 bets for the first Thursday night.

1. Minnessota -14 (vs. UNLV): 1/2 unit
2. Tulsa +3.5 (at Bowling Green): 1 unit
3. UCF -21 (vs. Akron): 1/4 unit
4. Utah -2.5 (vs. Utah St.): 1 unit
5. Vanderbilt +3 (vs. Ole Miss): 3/4 unit
6. Rutgers +9.5 (at Fresno St.): 1 unit

A pretty good start to the season. A bit of bad luck with the Vandy game and I seem to have overvalued Tulsa (they have real issues in the defensive line). But overall, I'm very pleased with the start.

Season Total: +0.825 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[HuskerExpat]

Friday 8/30/13 Games

Two small bets tonight:

1. Western Michigan +28 (at Michigan St.): 1/4 Unit
2. SMU +5 (vs Texas Tech): 1/2 Unit

Season Record: 4-2
Season Results: +0.825 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[shopbar picks]

Nice night Thursday. Good luck tonight.

[shopbar picks]

What do you like tomorrow. I'm leaning. Nc st. Western Kentucky. ULM. Okie St. Arkansas. And Penn State. Any thoughts?

[HuskerExpat]

Two small bets tonight:

1. Western Michigan +28 (at Michigan St.): 1/4 Unit
2. SMU +5 (vs Texas Tech): 1/2

Proof that Mich St is not there yet.

Season record: 5-3
Season return: +0.57

[HuskerExpat]

I do like WKU and Oki St. I'd stay away from away from Penn St. I'm definitely taking Syracuse in that game. I'll post my picks in the morning..:

[HuskerExpat]

Saturday, 8/31/13

First Saturday, and lots of bets, as usual:

1. NC State (-14 vs Louisiana Tech): 3/4 unit
2. FIU +21 (vs Maryland): 1/4 unit
3. VTech +21 (vs Alabama): 1/2 unit
4. Troy -3 (vs UAB): 1 unit
5. WKU +4.5 (vs Kentucky): 1 unit
6. Miami OH +20.5 (vs Marshall): 1 unit
7. Oklahoma St -11 (vs Miss St): 1 unit
8. Oklahoma -21.5 (vs ULM): 1/2 unit
9. Washington St +14 (vs Auburn): 1 unit
10. Syracuse +8.5 (vs Syracuse): 1 unit
11. New Mexico -3.5 (vs UTSA): 1 unit
12. California +6 (vs Northwestern): 1.5 units

Season Record: 5-3
Season Return: +0.57 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[shopbar picks]

Good call on the orangemen. AS a sker fan my self .Wyoming, will be ranked at season end. That was a good football team. Will bet them alot this year. And maybe that game will drive the husker's line down. And also betting against SDSU and Oregon state.

[HuskerExpat]

1. NC State (-14 vs Louisiana Tech): 3/4 unit
2. FIU +21 (vs Maryland): 1/4 unit
3. VTech +21 (vs Alabama): 1/2 unit
4. Troy -3 (vs UAB): 1 unit
5. WKU +4.5 (vs Kentucky): 1 unit
6. Miami OH +20.5 (vs Marshall): 1 unit
7. Oklahoma St -11 (vs Miss St): 1 unit
8. Oklahoma -21.5 (vs ULM): 1/2 unit
9. Washington St +14 (vs Auburn): 1 unit
10. Syracuse +8.5 (vs Syracuse): 1 unit
11. New Mexico -3.5 (vs UTSA): 1 unit
12. California +6 (vs Northwestern): 1.5 units

Not a great day, but not horrible either.

Season Record: 11-8-1
Season Return: +1.34 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[HuskerExpat]

Good call on the orangemen. AS a sker fan my self .Wyoming, will be ranked at season end. That was a good football team. Will bet them alot this year. And maybe that game will drive the husker's line down. And also betting against SDSU and Oregon state.

I really wanted to take Wyoming and the points in that game, but I generally don't bet against Nebraska. My one concession of loyalty in sports gambling. haha. Anyway, their QB looked pretty good; very accurate. I'm not sure if it was him carving up our defense or our defense giving away too many opportunities, but it is going to be a very long season if we continue to play at a level where we give up 581 yeards offense to Wyoming. It's been my experience that the Huskers are almost always over-valued, so I hardly ever get a chance to bet on them. And the last bet I made on them was the Big 10 Championship game last year. Enough said...

[shopbar picks]

Yeah the title game was brutal. Even Larry mentioned it on history TV show. My top 2 plays are OU and Ohio St. This week. And a 7 team parlay. OU. Ohio State. Oregon. Michigan. Wyo. Texass. And Nebraska. Think they respond back in a big way

[shopbar picks]

Give me your thoughts. And where you from. I'm north of Omaha

[HuskerExpat]

My preliminary line in both of those games is -13 OU and -29 Ohio St. So I wouldn't take either OU or OSU in those games. WVU and SDSU had really bad games last week, but those lines are probably a bit of an overreaction to those games...

[HuskerExpat]

Monday, 9/2/13

Once Pitt went to +10.5 this became a play:

1. Pitt +10.5 (vs. Florida St.): 3/4 unit

Season Record: 11-8-1
Season Return: +1.34 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[HuskerExpat]

1. Pitt +10.5 (vs. Florida St.): 3/4 unit

That Florida St QB is pretty damn good....

Season Record: 11-9-1
Season Return: +0.52 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[HuskerExpat]

Thursday, 9/5/13

1. Florida Atlantic +20.5 (at ECU): 1/2 unit

Season Record: 11-9-1
Season Return: +0.52 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[HuskerExpat]

1. Florida Atlantic +20.5 (at ECU): 1/2 unit

Season Record: 12-9-1
Season Return: +1.02 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[HuskerExpat]

Anyone have any thoughts about Wake Forest vs. BC tonight. I have BC as roughly a TD favorite. Anyone have any thoughts why line is only -3?

[Hotlanta Steam]

Anyone have any thoughts about Wake Forest vs. BC tonight. I have BC as roughly a TD favorite. Anyone have any thoughts why line is only -3?

I think because of the lack of supreme talent on both teams, the oddsmakers are looking at experience... Tanner Price is a senior and a very serviceable QB. Wakes best WR Campanaro is also back playing tonight and the defense was pretty stout last week vs Presbyterian (only like 150 yards total)... while holding a below average FCS school to minimal yards may not mean a lot it still means that you make tackles and can cover receivers.

BC beat a very good FCS squad in Nova last week but did it with a bit of smoke and mirrors. They scored on a fake punt and got 4 turnovers... Nova also missed on a 4th and 1 from the BC 1....

I don't think BC is a bad play by any means but Wake and Jim Grobe's offense are never fun to prepare for.

[HuskerExpat]

Friday, 9/6/13

One bet tonight, I like B.C. by about a TD, so my bet tonight is:

1. Boston College -2.5 (vs. Wake Forest): 3/4 unit;

Season Record: 12-9-1
Season Return: +1.02 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[smack3179]

BC by by at least a TD!!

[HuskerExpat]

1. Boston College -2.5 (vs. Wake Forest): 3/4 unit;

Season Record: 13-9-1
Season Return: +1.77 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[shopbar picks]

Nice call on BC. Whats the plays for tomorrow.

[HuskerExpat]

Still early in the year with soft lines, so there are a ton of bets today:

1. Oklahoma St. -27 (vs. UTSA): 1/2 unit;
2. Ball St. -8 (vs. Army): 1 unit;
3. Cincinnati -7.5 (vs. Illinois): 1 unit;
4. USF +23 (vs. Michigan St): 1/2 unit;
5. Miami OH +17 (vs. Kentucky): 1 unit;
6. Michigan -4 (vs. Notre Dame): 3/4 unit;
7. Ohio -4 (vs. North Texas): 1 unit;
8. Navy +12.5 (vs Indiana): 1 unit;
9. Syracuse +16.5 (vs. Northwestern) 1 unit;
10. Air Force +9.5 (vs. Utah St.) 1 unit;
11. North Carolina -17.5 (vs. Middle Tennessee): 1 unit
12. Western Kentucky +12 (vs. Tennessee): 1/2 unit
13. UTEP -6 (vs New Mexico): 1 unit
14. Minnesota -15 (vs. New Mexico St.) 3/4 unit

Season Record: 13-9-1
Season Return: +1.77 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

[HuskerExpat]

Not a good start to the day, but there is time left....

[HuskerExpat]

Still early in the year with soft lines, so there are a ton of bets today:

1. Oklahoma St. -27 (vs. UTSA): 1/2 unit;
2. Ball St. -8 (vs. Army): 1 unit;
3. Cincinnati -7.5 (vs. Illinois): 1 unit;
4. USF +23 (vs. Michigan St): 1/2 unit;
5. Miami OH +17 (vs. Kentucky): 1 unit;
6. Michigan -4 (vs. Notre Dame): 3/4 unit;
7. Ohio -4 (vs. North Texas): 1 unit;
8. Navy +12.5 (vs Indiana): 1 unit;
9. Syracuse +16.5 (vs. Northwestern) 1 unit;
10. Air Force +9.5 (vs. Utah St.) 1 unit;
11. North Carolina -17.5 (vs. Middle Tennessee): 1 unit
12. Western Kentucky +12 (vs. Tennessee): 1/2 unit
13. UTEP -6 (vs New Mexico): 1 unit
14. Minnesota -15 (vs. New Mexico St.) 3/4 unit

Season Record: 21-16-1
Season Return: +2.74 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spspreadsheet

This week I was a few plays from where I wanted to be. My real problem was probably that I fell into the trap of believing Petrino was going to perform a miracle at WKU. My own power ratings said I should have bet Tennessee and not WKU and I foolishly ignored them. And I haven't given Northwestern enough credit (as well as my assumption that K Colter wouldn't play because of the concussion was wrong). Still, my goal is slow and steady forward progress. I'd like to make somewhere between 5-10% return on my bankroll each week and this week was only 2%. Hopefully next week will be a little better (or that I'll make up some ground on the NFL tomorrow, though historically NFL is not a source of big returns for me).

[shopbar picks]

I'm hammering ucla. The Nebraska defense is terrible. Thanks to the coaching. Whats your thoughts.

[HuskerExpat]

I'm hammering ucla. The Nebraska defense is terrible. Thanks to the coaching. Whats your thoughts.

Strictly based upon my power ratings, I like Nebraska. No way I'm betting it though. If I were going to bet, I'd be on UCLA too. Too many chokes by Nebraska to trust them. Their defense is very exploitable right now too.

[HuskerExpat]

Thursday, 9/12/13

1. Louisiana Tech, -7 (vs Tulane): 1 unit;
2. Arkansas St, -7 (vs Troy): 3/4 unit.

Season Record: 21-16-1
Season Return: +2.74 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

[HuskerExpat]

1. Louisiana Tech, -7 (vs Tulane): 1 unit;
2. Arkansas St, -7 (vs Troy): 3/4 unit.

Ugly start to the weekend....

Season Record: 21-17-2
Season Return: +1.69 units

http://huskerexpat.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet

[Hotlanta Steam]

I'm hammering ucla. The Nebraska defense is terrible. Thanks to the coaching. Whats your thoughts.

I have a strong feeling you are going to regret that play at about 2:30pm tomorrow... The national media is jumping all over "Nebraska has a terrible defense" and not examining why... Nebraska had been trying to play a 2 gap system for the last several years but it requires a dominant D Line with fantastic brains and brawn... Suh was that guy and to a lesser extent so was Baker Steinkuhler... They have abandoned the 2 gap system and are just going to let the athletes play instead of think so much. Nebraska has a great secondary if the D Line does its job and contains the QB scrambles... Tomorrow after the game, a name you will know well is Randy Gregory... He is a potent potent rush end.

I think Nebraska wins this by double digits... maybe even 20+ and UCLA struggles to score 25...

[HuskerExpat]

I have a strong feeling you are going to regret that play at about 2:30pm tomorrow... The national media is jumping all over "Nebraska has a terrible defense" and not examining why... Nebraska had been trying to play a 2 gap system for the last several years but it requires a dominant D Line with fantastic brains and brawn... Suh was that guy and to a lesser extent so was Baker Steinkuhler... They have abandoned the 2 gap system and are just going to let the athletes play instead of think so much. Nebraska has a great secondary if the D Line does its job and contains the QB scrambles... Tomorrow after the game, a name you will know well is Randy Gregory... He is a potent potent rush end.

I think Nebraska wins this by double digits... maybe even 20+ and UCLA struggles to score 25...

One of you was clearly right.

I missed last weekend due to a family emergency. I'll be back to posting picks next weekend.