I've been at this for 25+ years, and I don't look for a particular type of bet, I look for stealthy plus-EV wagers, that the odds makers are going to put little time into, because no one is going to exploit them on this, and the amount bet certainly is not going to hurt them no matter what. Most players will bypass this because it is out of their main stream of thinking, which is ok. My thinking has no boundries, if something has proven statistical plus-EV I'm all over it. here is one of my plays for week 1.Since 2005 (last 8 years), teams in game number 1 as a home favorite of -19.5 to
-24 are 51-0 straight up. That includes:
C. Fla -1450
Fla -2330
MD -1240
Okla -2230
UCLA -1155
Louis -1330
Put these in a 6 team parlay and you wager 100.00 to win 47.33
That is negative EV, however. There is an early season bias to huge home
favorites, and the upsets simply occur at a much slower rate.
Looking at the results in game number 1 shows: (all based on the last 30 yrs)
-21 .960
-23.5 .960
-20 .938
-23.5 .960
-19.5 1.00
-20.5 .938
Those odds parlayed now show a 77.84% chance of winning or over 100 bets:
77.84 x 47.33 = 3684.16 winning bets
22.16 x 100.00 = 2216.00 losing bets
--------------------------------------------------------------
1468.16 profit / 10000 risked =
14.68% ROI
Looking at results from game number 2:
-21 .966
-23.5 1.00
-20 .880
-23.5 1.00
-19.5 1.00
-20.5 1.00
Those parlayed show an 84.48% chance of winning or over 100 bets is:
88.48 x 47.33 = 4187.76
11.52 x 100.00 = 1152.00
____________________________
3025.76 / 100000 risked = 30.25%
ROI
This works because the early season preparation and depth of the much better
team creates a bias in results week 1-2, that gradually declines as the season
progresses, so there is a great opportunity to catch serious +EV here
-24 are 51-0 straight up. That includes:
C. Fla -1450
Fla -2330
MD -1240
Okla -2230
UCLA -1155
Louis -1330
Put these in a 6 team parlay and you wager 100.00 to win 47.33
That is negative EV, however. There is an early season bias to huge home
favorites, and the upsets simply occur at a much slower rate.
Looking at the results in game number 1 shows: (all based on the last 30 yrs)
-21 .960
-23.5 .960
-20 .938
-23.5 .960
-19.5 1.00
-20.5 .938
Those odds parlayed now show a 77.84% chance of winning or over 100 bets:
77.84 x 47.33 = 3684.16 winning bets
22.16 x 100.00 = 2216.00 losing bets
--------------------------------------------------------------
1468.16 profit / 10000 risked =
14.68% ROI
Looking at results from game number 2:
-21 .966
-23.5 1.00
-20 .880
-23.5 1.00
-19.5 1.00
-20.5 1.00
Those parlayed show an 84.48% chance of winning or over 100 bets is:
88.48 x 47.33 = 4187.76
11.52 x 100.00 = 1152.00
____________________________
3025.76 / 100000 risked = 30.25%
ROI
This works because the early season preparation and depth of the much better
team creates a bias in results week 1-2, that gradually declines as the season
progresses, so there is a great opportunity to catch serious +EV here