QUALITY FEEDBACK DESIRED: Oklahoma State vs Mississippi State in Houston, Tx

suicidekings · 07-30-13, 02:04 AM

This game opened at OSU -6.5 originally, but was closer to -10 by the time it became widely available. It was a huge error in the original placement of the line, and even now, I would lean to laying the chalk. MSU is a fraud, while OSU is looking to be fairly well set for 2013.

I think in general, when you see the opener move by a TD in Week 1 games, you should be leaning strongly towards that move.

Urbanwildlife · 07-30-13, 02:53 AM

Thank you my friend. Looking forward to hearing more comments to see how close they are to mine before I post my assessment.

BigdaddyQH · 07-30-13, 11:28 AM

This game does not sit well with me. First, with all of the wild odds on the board (and their are plenty of them), this game has not budged from it's 13.5 spread in a week. Just about every book has this game at 13.5. I donot know where anyone saw this game at -6.5, but I know it was not in Vegas. Looking at the teams, it is highly unlikely that Miss. State is going to stop Okie State. The big question is this. Can Okie State's pathetic defense stop Miss. State's pretty good offense. This looks like the books are begging people to take Okie State and give the points, and that always spells potential T-R-O-U-B-L-E. This game is a pass for me.

Huckleberry Pig · 07-30-13, 11:34 AM

I think I discussed this in another thread so sorry if you've heard it before but I just don't buy into Miss St. Out of their 8 wins last season, only 2 of those teams they beat had winning records. Those two teams were Jackson State and Middle Tennessee State. Needless to say they did not have any quality wins IMO. Second, they are not a great road team (this will be more like a road game for both teams). The only SEC team they have beat on the road in the last two years... Kentucky.

Last season, all 5 of their losses were blowout losses, each coming by 14 pts or more. Their average loss differential in those 5 losses was 21.4 pts! This shows me that when this team gets down, they tend to pack it in. They lose two key guys in their secondary and I look for OSU to exploit that big time. I know OSU will have a new qb but they return almost everyone else. Miss St. offense is mediocre, averaging only 16.2 ppg last season against what I consider "quality" opponents. OSU defense is not great but they do create turnovers and have lots of returning starters.

OSU will aslo be playing with something to prove. They know they can run the table this year in the Big 12 because of how weak it appears to be. That may not be enough to get them to a championship game though because of SOS esp since Ohio State could go undefeated this year and a 1-loss SEC team could jump them as well. So what might help that? How about a blowout win against an SEC team. You know Gundy knows this and knows how important this game is. I would really like to get OSU at anything under -14 for this one. Hoping the line stays at -13.5 but am tempted to jump on it now as I really see it going up.

BigdaddyQH · 07-30-13, 11:49 AM

Huck, that is my exact point. The line is 13.5 now for a reason. Everyone and their friends know that Okie State will more than likely win this game. The question becomes by how many points. You yourself said that you would take Okie State by anything under 14 points, and that is EXACTLY what the books are looking for. Gundy has to worry about getting past Texas, OU, Baylor, and other Big 12 teams. This game is a "win and get out" type of game. It meand absolutely nothing as far as the NC is concerned unless Okie State loses, and no one is saying that. This game is a pass for me. It has back door cover written all over it, especially with that rather pourous Okie State defense.

Huckleberry Pig · 07-30-13, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Huck, that is my exact point. The line is 13.5 now for a reason. Everyone and their friends know that Okie State will more than likely win this game. The question becomes by how many points. You yourself said that you would take Okie State by anything under 14 points, and that is EXACTLY what the books are looking for. Gundy has to worry about getting past Texas, OU, Baylor, and other Big 12 teams. This game is a "win and get out" type of game. It meand absolutely nothing as far as the NC is concerned unless Okie State loses, and no one is saying that. This game is a pass for me. It has back door cover written all over it, especially with that rather pourous Okie State defense.

I can definitely see what you're saying. I just figured Gundy would try to pad the numbers a bit to give him an edge should they go undefeated this season. Forgot to mention Miss St lost their two top receivers - lots of inexperience this year coming in as far as their receivers are concerned. We shall see. Still don't know if it's a play for me but my lean is OK State. Can definitely see where Bigdaddy is coming from though, makes a very good point about "win and get out"

Urbanwildlife · 07-30-13, 11:59 AM

Much appreciated all of your insights and discussion on it,

and I will post as promised later my breakdown of it. I was wanting to see this type of discussion because I do not want to get caught with my blinders on, which can easily happen.

WorkHorse · 07-30-13, 12:51 PM

**bump**

Huckleberry Pig · 07-30-13, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Urbanwildlife

Much appreciated all of your insights and discussion on it,

and I will post as promised later my breakdown of it. I was wanting to see this type of discussion because I do not want to get caught with my blinders on, which can easily happen.

Good call, I hadn't completely thought about what Bigdaddy had said. Always good to see the other side of the story. Was reading a matthew berry article on fantasy football and it was discussing how stats can be helpful but they can also hurt you if you just use them to support your opinion. Must be able to look at stats that do not support your opinion as well then come to a conclusion. If you can't be committed to do this your mind is made up before you even research stats and, again, your analysis will be skewed or biased and you could easily miss something.

Huckleberry Pig · 07-30-13, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by WorkHorse

**bump**

what are your thoughts on this game workhorse?

Urbanwildlife · 07-30-13, 01:33 PM

I also very rarely let line movement influence my decision, as my decision is based on my own due diligence, not on what others might feel I should be doing. On this particular game, I am very very high on OSU and will detail why when I feel it is time to share my breakdown of the game.

Deebz · 07-30-13, 03:18 PM

I also am very high on OSU. Miss st losing 2 key corners is going to be a big issue for them this year. Gundy is also a much better offensive mind vs Mullen in my opinion. I personally believe that all the hype Miss St had from being ranked 10th before being dismantled by Alabama is rolling over to this season and Vegas is looking for people to bet the SEC is better than Big12

Urbanwildlife · 07-30-13, 05:12 PM

Keep the postings coming.

Like your thought process Deebz.

WorkHorse · 07-30-13, 07:22 PM

The Cowboys are the high profile team here but they have some issues/questions just like Mississippi State does. Like replacing the core of the offensive line. New players at left guard, center and right guard. Also, the cowpokes defense, especially the pass defense (110th) ain't something to write home about. The Pokes fired their defensive coordinator and brought in Glenn Spencer???? Not knocking the guy but he has to replace three of the top defensive ends and two in a secondary that was God Awful. Until Gundy makes a statement on defense...the Cowboys are nothing more than a crowd pleaser scoring machine with the public. Should beat MSU...but we are all interested in covering...got my doubts. Doubt it gets there, but if the line goes to 14.5...I'm all over the Bulldogs.

Urbanwildlife · 07-31-13, 01:59 AM

Oklahoma State is bringing back 18 returning starters and again is going to have a very explosive offense lead by an outstanding group of receivers and some good running backs. The Cowboys also are going to have a good offensive line that will get the job done no matter who the quarterback is going to be, as all three quarterbacks bring different attributes to the table, and all will be successful when provided with the opportunity in my opinion. I do not believe anyone questions the explosiveness of the offense, and there is going to be very few teams in the country that are going to be able to hang in a shoot out with OSU based on my due diligence, as this offense is just loaded with play makers lead by first team All Big 12 receiver Josh Stewart who last year had over 100 catches!.

As in years past, the problem with OSU lies with the defense. As pointed out by WorkHorse, OSU has a new defensive coordinator this year, and he loves to have his defense be very aggressive and attack attack attack, so you can expect lots of blitzes and pressure from everywhere. The defense has the speed and talent to be a good defensive, but time will tell. They bring back two very good tackles, and 2 very talented guys at the safety position and they have two studs returning at linebacker. They just need the corners to step up and do there job, and they need to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback, which they should be able to do with the new pressure/blitzing defense the Defensive Coordinator is installing. Also helping the defense this year will be a couple of Juco transfers and a couple of outstanding freshman recruits who should make an immediate impact.

One suspect area for the Cowboys that concerns me, is there special teams, as they will have a new kicker and punter, but hopefully with there explosive offense they will not need to use them that much.

Mississippi State
As others have pointed out I am just not sold on them, and also feel they are very overrated, and until I proven differently nothing is going to change my mind. There offense should be ok especially with Tyler Russell returning at quarterback, and they have a good offensive line returning, but ..... who is he going to throw to, unless someone steps up to be the guy?. For them to beat OSU they are going to have to be able to have a running game to be able to control the clock. They do have talent returning at the running back position, but last year they were only able to be successful with the running game against the easier teams, so why should it be any different this year, as nothing has really changed to my knowledge.

On defense MSU is bringing back most of there defense from a year ago but there defensive backfield is very suspect, which is where they lost two of there starters from a year ago through graduation, and they also lost there top linebacker who was also there leading tackler through graduation. The biggest problem MSU had last year on defense was getting pressure on the quarterback, ending up dead last in the conference in sacks, and 2nd to last in tackles for losses, and I see no reason why anything different will take place this year, as they have no difference makers coming in that I am aware of.

The special teams of MSU should be very good, and this is the one edge I give them over Oklahoma State.

Prediction:
I see no way in hell that MSU can keep pace with Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is just to explosive and talented on offense, and going against a team that has not improved itself on defensive is a call for a blowout win by the Cowboys. If you cannot get to the Oklahoma State quarterback, and you have a questionable secondary, you are having to replace your leading tackler and linebacker, how the hell are you going to stop Gundys offensive powerhouse, your not! Mississippi State will score, but to keep pace with the Cowboys is going to be an impossible task.

Thank you for those who shared your thoughts and opinions on this game, and I hope you all have a successful 2013-14 season, and I hope to see many of you at the pay window!

This game is going to be my number one play of week #1 for the reasons I stated. Now if any of you care to elaborate on my other game that I posted about, University of Southern Cal at Hawaii it would be very appreciated, as that game is also a game I am excited to hear others points of views about, hoping to reinforce what I already know, or providing me with more information that I am not seeing.

Huckleberry Pig · 07-31-13, 09:22 AM

workhorse: I didn't think Ok State was losing 3 lineman? Googled their returning starters and I saw 10 are returning on offense from one site (date of article was 4/24/13) but phil steele had much less returning, but his article was from January.

Someone straighten this out for me

BigdaddyQH · 07-31-13, 10:58 AM

It depends on what you consider a "starter" as. Some consider the player who started the most games in a certain position as their "starter". Others consider any player who started one game or more as a starter. There is where the difference lies. Example. Steele has Ole Miss returning 9 offensive starters and 10 defensive starters. Mark Lawrence has it 8 and 11. Steele has Okie State returning 8 on offense and 7 on defense. Lawrence has it 7 and 8.

Urbanwildlife · 07-31-13, 12:28 PM

Much appreciated the information shared and keeping things respectful.

M.W. · 07-31-13, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by Huckleberry Pig

workhorse: I didn't think Ok State was losing 3 lineman? Googled their returning starters and I saw 10 are returning on offense from one site (date of article was 4/24/13) but phil steele had much less returning, but his article was from January.

Someone straighten this out for me

They lost two starters from the OL, the starting tailback, and a starting WR (Anderson), who missed a number of games with injury, but it's debatable whether Anderson should be counted as a starter, I guess.