Chalk picks from last year's square

[alabasterf]

I'd love to see what favorites y'all like for week 1. I got buried last year with the chalk, but hope to not overreact by focusing too much on dogs this year. I'm liking the following to cover and would appreciate feedback, insights, and any other worthwhile discussions.
Auburn -13 v WSU
Cincinatti -13 v Purdue
Northwestern -8 at Cal
Fresno -8 v Rutgers

Not that anyone would tail me, but I'd recommend that you do not. I am not a dumb-ass, but certainly no pro. Just a former D1 player who bets mostly on instinct and public data, although I am working on refining my skills. Thank you to those on the forum with your helpful feedback and insightful comments.

[Urbanwildlife]

Very nice selection. The only one that would concern me is the Cincinnati/Purdue game. Take it to the pay window!

[nickeydyme]

I like them all to win too. Fresno is one of my top plays of week 1, I have write up in the forum somewhere. I'm starting to like auburn more and more, just superior athletes. I think Cincinnati should win but new coaches, New rb, lose a lot on def, that game might be ugly and close. Northwestern should win but big 10 record is terrible playing Pac 12 teams on west coast last 10 year's, 5-20. They def are superior team tho.

[gojetsgomoxies]

cal has been day and night home vs. road. much, much better at home.

seems like alot of people like WSU in that game. i guess theory is that leach will have them much improved this year. i think my favourite service has them as most improved in nation this year... and they weren't as bad as people may think last year. sagarin had them 104.... auburn should bounce back alot too. not sure they'll be high powered scoring for awhile though.

tons of people (too many?) on fresno in that game. rutgers has had great D last few years but losing a ton of starters.

i haven't done any picks yet, but i like all of those except wasu-auburn.

[Stingerbaits]

There are too many questions in the WSU/Auburn game for me to be comfortable enough to bet on it. Auburn's QB situation was a train wreck last year, I know that Malzahn recruited Fraizer to work his system, but I doubt there will be major improvements from last year. I also question Malzahn's importance on the defense side of the ball, Auburn always has a decent D, but without improvements they will not be able to maintain their strength. On the WSU side, everyone is waiting for Leach to turn WSU into the scoring machine he had at TTU, but we still have no proof that is possible. It could happen this year, it could not.

As for the rest, there is a good bit of talk about Fresno this year, with Carr looking like a potential first rounder and they traditionally show up ready to play big programs, I want to say going with Fresno at -8 is a good call, I need to research Rutgers a little more to be certain.

Cinncy at Purdue: I like Tommy T. at Cinncy, he was able to take good/decent players at Auburn and TTU and make them play beyond expectations. I would actually look at the O/U for this game. My off the wall guess is that it will be set around 42, and I would take the Under. I expect some defense in this game.

NW at Cal: Northwestern is trying to make a decent program up there, I expect them to put up some points against Cal.

[BigdaddyQH]

I will buy Fresno State, and I took Auburn -12 on a GOY wager. Cal and Purdue both can surprise people. I would pass on those two games.

[gojetsgomoxies]

On the WSU side, everyone is waiting for Leach to turn WSU into the scoring machine he had at TTU, but we still have no proof that is possible. It could happen this year, it could not.

agreed. i think assumption in some peoples' minds that it will happen this year.

i saw a study that coaches who have done a great job at a mid-level program are great ATS after having a stumble year (assuming they weren't fired of course)... and author tried to apply this to leach at wsu (and author made clear it isn't the same but analogous)..... FWIW, it's interesting.

[BigdaddyQH]

There are two technical points and one situational point that led me to taking Auburn and giving 12 points. First, Wazzu is 0-7 ATS in their first away game in the past 7 seasons and 1-7 ATS in their first lined game of the season in their past 8 seasons. The Situational point is that Auburn had their worst conference record every last season, and they are going to want the entire SEC to know that they are back. Both of these teams went 3-9 last season, and Auburn is going to want to prove that a 3-9 SEC team playing at home is much better than a 3-9 Pac 12 team.

[alabasterf]

Like those angles too bigdaddy. Thanks for that. Hope I'm not just looking for confirmation of my initial thoughts. The post above yours seems plausible, but I like your angle because it meets more of my criteria.

[nickeydyme]

Auburn will double their wins at least this year imo. The understanding is juco transfer nick Marshall will be starting qb and he fits the mold of a cam newton, best option they have but needs to make better decisions with the ball. At rb they are gonna have great 1-2 punch with 1000 yard back mason and #1 juco rb transfer, artis-payne. Receiver position they are green and lose top 2 targets but inspread off you just need depth which they have. 70 starts return to the oline, so that is a big strength to their offense this year.

Defensively they return 8/10 top tacklers. Their dline should be big and nasty and is experienced, 3/4 back. Linebackers should improve with juco transfers. Secondary returns all four corners and both safeties. Plus Ellis Johnson is new dcoordinator after horrible year at smiss. He was d coordinator for south Carolina before, so he knows how to defend in sec.

Their pure size, athletic ability, speed, familiarity with system, first home game all should factor into an auburn 31-17 type of win imo.