Pac 12 Notebook

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 01:42 PM

2012 Pac 12 ATS

Stanford	64%	3.8
Oregon St	62%	7.1
Oregon	62%	2.6
Arizona St	62%	8.3
Washington	62%	0.4
UCLA	57%	1.8
Arizona	46%	-0.7
Wash State	46%	-3.6
Utah	42%	-2.2
California	25%	-7.4
Colorado	25%	-8.6
USC	23%	-5.9

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 01:44 PM

note: last column on ATS is ATS cover per game. some pretty good and poor ATS teams there.

eyeballing it, ASU and OSU were 4th and 8th best ATS teams in the country.

colorado, cal and USC were 6th, 11th and 16th worst ATS teams in the country

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 01:52 PM

PAC-12 Returning starters, further left is national rank. note K/P = 1 means both k and p are back. a top analyst says returning kickers are key (punter makes tons of sense to me)..... stats from philsteele.com

no real imbalances between O and D returning starters.

		O/D	O	QB	OL	D	K/P
8	Arizona	17	7	0	3	10	0
8	Colorado	17	10	1	5	7	1
8	Washington	17	10	1	4	7	1
24	Oregon	15	8	1	4	7	0
24	Oregon St	15	8	1	4	7	0
24	Stanford	15	8	1	4	7	0
24	USC	15	8	0	4	7	0
24	Washington St	15	7	0	4	8	1
41	Arizona St	14	6	1	3	8	0
58	UCLA	13	7	1	4	6	0
58	Utah	13	6	1	2	7	0
117	California	9	4	0	2	5	1

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 01:57 PM

Pac 12, O/U.... last column is Over margin last year.... Az/Col were 7th and 8th best OVER (over margin) and wash/stan were 7th and 10th UNDER

Arizona	75%	7.3
UCLA	64%	1.4
Utah	58%	3.9
Oregon St	58%	-1.1
Oregon	58%	0.6
Wash State	55%	-3.1
Colorado	55%	7.6
Arizona St	50%	3.4
California	46%	-0.1
Washington	42%	-6.2
USC	39%	-3.3
Stanford	36%	-5.6

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 02:04 PM

since 2010 pac 10 has been good OVER both conf and non-conf. amazing OVER ex. USC.....

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 02:15 PM

returning starters - % that are senior/junior.... those are pretty low %'s for UCLA/Oregon. Those are 3rd and 15th worst (huge tie) for NCAA in total.

Arizona	86%
Arizona St	82%
Utah	82%
Oregon St	77%
Washington St	77%
Stanford	73%
USC	73%
Washington	73%
Colorado	68%
California	64%
Oregon	64%
UCLA	55%

NCAA average is 75% with 10% standard deviation....

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 02:27 PM

2012 offense/defense NCAA rating (adj. for opposition).....

	O	D
Arizona	10	85
Arizona St	16	51
California	71	66
Colorado	91	119
Oregon	1	16
Oregon St	23	20
Stanford	49	4
UCLA	28	52
USC	36	25
Utah	74	43
Washington	70	24
Washington St	82	81

some pretty big imbalances..... didn't realize washington had such stout defense. nice UNDER team i think...

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 02:28 PM

offense and defense rank within PAC 12 (adj for opponent)

	O	D
Arizona	2	11
Arizona St	3	7
California	9	9
Colorado	12	12
Oregon	1	2
Oregon St	4	3
Stanford	7	1
UCLA	5	8
USC	6	5
Utah	10	6
Washington	8	4
Washington St	11	10

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 02:28 PM

gonna rest for awhile i think....

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 02:30 PM

my sources so far as philsteele.com, teamrankings.com usatoday.com, masseyratings.com........

anyone know where i can find pass o/d and rush o/d.....

Fredvic247 · 07-20-13, 04:10 PM

Just beautiful, keep it coming....

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 04:31 PM

2012 pac 12 strength of offensive running and passing attacks..... not totally sure about rankings like this. i use footballoutsiders.com that corrects for the opposition. i will try to confirm with another site that is just raw numbers. given that most games are against pac 12 adjustment for opponents shouldn't have been a massive adjust......

and of course, a team that barely runs but has a 7 ypc is hard to classify, that certainly isn't one of the top running attacks in america... but anyway, basically ncaa rankings followed by p12 rankings. OFFENSE. defense to come.

	Run	Pass	R P12	P P12
Arizona	16	18	2	4
Arizona State	61	39	9	6
California	22	59	4	8
Colorado	97	115	10	12
Oregon	2	4	1	1
Oregon State	54	17	7	3
Stanford	57	43	8	7
UCLA	40	32	6	5
USC	17	9	3	2
Utah	102	79	11	9
Washington	33	80	5	10
Washington State	111	95	12	11

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 04:39 PM

defensive rankings by run and pass. ncaa rank and rank within pac 12

	d run	d pass	d run	d pass
	pac 12	pac 12	pac 12	pac 12
Arizona	59	57	11	8
Arizona State	54	15	9	3
California	28	49	3	7
Colorado	121	115	12	12
Oregon	32	13	4	2
Oregon State	27	29	2	5
Stanford	7	8	1	1
UCLA	40	58	6	9
USC	45	26	8	4
Utah	34	79	5	10
Washington	42	34	7	6
Washington State	57	94	10	11

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 04:52 PM

2012 ncaa and pac 12 yards per point for offense.......... be careful. alot like this stat. i think it's more nfl stat where most games are competitive. if oregon is leading colorado 42 in the 2nd quarter, colorado can often get tons of yards later in the game but very few points (oregon gets more serious in its own end, colorado goes for TD's not FG's etc.... etc...)

so not the greatest stat for NCAA but enjoy anyway...

2012 offense yards per point... warning: i'm confused on the national rankings and where that came from. not sure it's right. it looks right.

ARIZONA	13.8	62	5
ARIZONA ST	12.1	111	11
CALIFORNIA	17	20	2
COLORADO	16.9	21	3
OREGON	10.8	123	12
OREGON ST	13.3	79	9
STANFORD	13.4	74	8
UCLA	13.6	69	6
USC	13.5	70	7
UTAH	12.2	110	10
WASHINGTON	14.8	45	4
WASHINGTON ST	17.6	15	1

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 04:59 PM

2012 defensive ypp ncaa and pac 12 ranking..

same caveats as offense, except that the national rankings are correct for sure this time. up to viewer to as to whether you want to rank high to low or vice versa...

ARIZONA	14.1	73	9
ARIZONA ST	14.4	65	8
CALIFORNIA	13.3	90	10
COLORADO	10.6	122	12
OREGON	17.3	18	2
OREGON ST	17.2	21	3
STANFORD	19.5	8	1
UCLA	15.1	51	5
USC	16.2	33	4
UTAH	14.5	64	7
WASHINGTON	14.8	56	6
WASHINGTON ST	12.6	110	11

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 05:07 PM

2012 turnover margin.... ncaa and pac 12 rank....

phil steele loves this one. not sure it shows anything too insightful (edit: i should note, in the case of these teams this season. i do think it's a good thing to watch closely) ............... yes, colorado will be much improved this year. how could they not be..

i think a detailed breakdown, which i'll do in next few days would be helpful...

Arizona	-0.08	63	8
Arizona St.	0.46	38	5
California	-0.58	96	10
Colorado	-1.58	118	12
Oregon	1.62	1	1
Oregon St.	0.62	27	3
Southern California	-0.15	69	9
Stanford	0.64	26	2
UCLA	0.5	36	4
Utah	0.33	42	7
Washington	0.38	39	6
Washington St.	-0.75	101	11

gojetsgomoxies · 07-20-13, 06:07 PM

instead of cutting and pasting into excel and then putting some of it here.

here is link to philsteele.com and his projections for pac 12 teams..

Page not found - Phil Steele

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2013/JUN13/DBJune26.html

he seems pessimistic vs. market on ucla, arizona and stanford.. optimistic on USC and ASU...... i will note that stanford and usc play ND which is a tough non-conf game (stanford plays sjsu too, who has improved like crazy).... anyway, his projections don't adjust for strength of schedule.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 11:56 AM

looking thru sporting news preview.....

seems to confirm phil steele's analysis.

UCLA has a sophomore at QB. 3 sophs on OL, 2 of 3 wr's = sophs..... 2 LB = sophomore. 3 of 4 in secondary are sophomore or freshman (freshman starts on corner)........ not sure alot of people have picked up on this. obv. hundley is a great QB. not sure about rest.

very bullish on ASU. they rate taylor kelly as best passing QB in pac12.

fyi, they have stanford over oregon.............. looks like that's "the game" in the pac 12 this year.

not related to sporting news but i see people starting to perceive stanford as a "winning program". i don't understand that. weren't good before willingham. weren't good after willingham until harbaugh arrived (walt harris?). they seem to get top recruits but i'd question the depth of their classes. sporting news has them rated 10th of 12th for most recent year recruiting. obv they have some elite classes before that. but classic small elite school and football needs alot of players. it's working for now.

fyi, sporting news has ucla as #1 recruiting class this year. pretty impressive.

sporting news is relatively bearish on usc. QB question (i think barkley was outstanding) and chemistry issues. alot of returning starters though.

BigdaddyQH · 07-21-13, 12:07 PM

Stnford is +4 at home against Oegon now. Hard to turn that down.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 12:27 PM

just something i whipped up comparing the team's rush and passing offense from last year. my analysis basically adjusted for the fact that yards per pass attempt are generally much higher than yards per carry. higher variability of course and you have to mix it up.

positive means rushing attack was better. negative means passing attack. and of course a terrible offense or great offense can have one much better. doesn't mean much. for instance, i think WSU had a 1.4 yard rushing average. absolutely dreadful. probably could capture the same with rush and passing ranking in ncaa.

ARIZONA	27.5%
ARIZONA ST	-6.7%
CALIFORNIA	20.7%
COLORADO	-7.5%
OREGON	32.5%
OREGON ST	-20.4%
STANFORD	6.9%
UCLA	-1.9%
USC	6.3%
UTAH	-5.8%
WASHINGTON	7.9%
WASHINGTON ST	-62.2%

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 12:43 PM

simpler way to show passing and rushing offenses in 2012. NOT adjusted for opponents. shouldn't matter that much for pac 10 ratings. but ranked vs. 124 teams, pac 12 teams have much harder schedules.

	NCAA	NCAA	pac12	pac12
	Orush	Opass	Orush	Opass
ARIZONA	8	64	2	6
ARIZONA ST	50	18	6	1
CALIFORNIA	29	79	4	8
COLORADO	113	118	11	12
OREGON	1	44	1	5
OREGON ST	92	26	9	3
STANFORD	55	75	7	7
UCLA	50	37	6	4
USC	24	23	3	2
UTAH	101	94	10	9
WASHINGTON	80	101	8	11
WASHINGTON ST	124	101	12	11

arizona = great running game, but their QB who fit RichRod's system perfectly is gone. on flip side, RichRod has had a year to formulate things now.

wow, washington state had a bad running game. hard to believe they can't average more than 1.4 YPC when the defense is more expecting pass.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 01:06 PM

here are ncaa and pac 12 rankings of run and pass defenses in 2013

	NCAA	NCAA	pac12	pac 12
	Drun	Dpass	Drun	Dpass
ARIZONA	87	89	11	10
ARIZONA ST	73	3	9	1
CALIFORNIA	73	63	9	8
COLORADO	123	120	12	12
OREGON	56	9	5	2
OREGON ST	56	22	5	4
STANFORD	10	20	1	3
UCLA	64	73	7	9
USC	64	52	7	6
UTAH	32	59	2	7
WASHINGTON	78	32	10	5
WASHINGTON ST	56	93	5	11

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 01:08 PM

surprised ASU had such stout pass defense. good pass rush?

colorado was really bad. fyi, the rush d = 1.7 stdev's bad, the pass defense 2.3 stdev's bad.

to some degree oregon's defensive numbers are irrelevent. so many blowouts by halftime.

utah good against run. but that NT some mock's awhile back had going #1 overall is gone.

washington = nice pass D

bear in mind again, that these aren't adjusted for opponents but as i said comparing pac 12 teams to each other should be fine.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 01:27 PM

regarding asu's stout pass defense and ats implications:

ASU had 7 comfortable ATS covers. 3 of those teams averaged less than 7 yards per attempt (full season). 2 more teams averaged less than 6.... arizona had a good passing attack 7.2 ypa and lots of yards... navy had a high ypa but mostly runs the balll.......... so 6 of 7 covers against poor pass offenses.

asu had 4 comfortable ATS losses. all teams were high 7's ypa or higher.

so asu covered 6-0 vs. poor passing teams. went 1-4 ats vs. good passing teams.

i guess you could also say asu was 5-1 ATS (not sure about navy so didn't count it) against poor teams. 1-4 ATS against good teams.

anyway, i think this is some of the beauty of focussing your analysis on one conference. see seidel's book about handicapping one conference for NCAAB betting.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 01:43 PM

fyi, colorado and utah have been in the pac 12 for 2 years now.

colorado is 28% ATS, average ats win/loss = -5.2..... conference they've been just normal bad, but non-conference 17% with average -13.7 point misses (1-5 small sample size, but maybe lesser conference teams getting excited to destroy a pac 12 team)

utah is 44% ATS, relatively benign -0.5 miss.

utah is 39% ATS -3.5 conference. 57% +7 non-conference.

WorkHorse · 07-23-13, 07:35 AM

Some strong information Gojets.....keep up the good work Bud!