Week 1 Pick

BigdaddyQH · 07-18-13, 12:19 PM

Poor play. First, Texas may not even score 42 points. Next, Brown will not risk a serious injury to a starter with a game at BYU coming up next week. NMSU returns their entire offensive line. If NMSU scores one TD, then Texas must score 50 points to cover. Brown and Company are 1-3 ATS in their past four openers against the cream puffs they always open the season with. This is a pass.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-18-13, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Poor play. First, Texas may not even score 42 points. Next, Brown will not risk a serious injury to a starter with a game at BYU coming up next week. NMSU returns their entire offensive line. If NMSU scores one TD, then Texas must score 50 points to cover. Brown and Company are 1-3 ATS in their past four openers against the cream puffs they always open the season with. This is a pass.

+1.... my sense is creampuffs have been good ATS picks over the past few years. internet making the recruiting world alot smaller??

Isaiah · 07-20-13, 01:22 AM

I wonder if a first half wager would be the better approach. First game against a patsy with dangerous BYU next week means Texas isn't going to show their playbook. Look for a very vanilla game plan on offense and basic defense. Secure the win and get the game over quickly and without injuries. Not exactly the ideal scenario for covering 42 1/2 points.

Givemhell Horns · 07-20-13, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by Isaiah

I wonder if a first half wager would be the better approach. First game against a patsy with dangerous BYU next week means Texas isn't going to show their playbook. Look for a very vanilla game plan on offense and basic defense. Secure the win and get the game over quickly and without injuries. Not exactly the ideal scenario for covering 42 1/2 points.

The Horns will run up tempo the entire game because this is a new system. They ran it the 2nd half of the Oregan St. game in the Alamo Bowl and that's it. Since up tempo is not allowing the D to sub and scoring quickly, i Just don't see them trying to milk the clock in this one. Plus like I mentioned, Mack knows they better look damn impressive each week because his butt is on the line. Not covering the line week 1 against a scrub like NMS would get fans howling early.

This is going to be my only bet week 1 and going to shoot 1/2 my stack.

WorkHorse · 07-20-13, 07:37 AM

Texas third teams could be New Mexico State by 42.

I take a different approach than what others have mentioned. This team needs confidence early on this season. I think they will score at will and often. I don't know if I'll play this game but if I did, I'd take the Horns -42. NMS couldn't beat many Division II schools. May be the worst team in Division 1 football!

Urbanwildlife · 07-20-13, 01:52 PM

I really like Texas in this game and have it as one of my favorite plays at this time for week #1 along with Notre Dame and Florida State. New Mexico State as WorkHorse pointed out is one of the worse teams in Division 1 football, and will be coming into this game with a new coaching staff, a new system, many new players, and they are even having to play as an independent, since the WAC was abandoned, and they have yet to find another conference.

J_On_A_Roll · 07-20-13, 03:17 PM

Texas gonna blow this one wide open ya hear me. Foot on the pedal of a ferrari!!!! Skurttt!!!!!!!!!!! A play for me.

Givemhell Horns · 07-20-13, 07:44 PM

The Horns starting 22 this year recruiting wise has an average star ranking of 4.1, tops in the country. Alabama is second with 3.8 and here some consider a lock for the NC where as the Horns were just picked 4 in the conference by Big 12 media. The talent is there but not the coaching and that is of course why fans want Mack gone.

Even though i do think the Horns are going to be really good this year in spite of Mack this pick has more to do how bad NMSU is as a program. They ranked over 100 in both total offense and defense last year, their last 9 games they scored more than 14 pts only twice and even BYU with their very sub par offense put up 50 a game before Texas St. scored 66. The last several years NMSU has been one the worst teams ATS.

SamDiamond · 07-20-13, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by Givemhell Horns

The Horns starting 22 this year recruiting wise has an average star ranking of 4.1, tops in the country. Alabama is second with 3.8 and here some consider a lock for the NC where as the Horns were just picked 4 in the conference by Big 12 media. The talent is there but not the coaching and that is of course why fans want Mack gone.

Even though i do think the Horns are going to be really good this year in spite of Mack this pick has more to do how bad NMSU is as a program. They ranked over 100 in both total offense and defense last year, their last 9 games they scored more than 14 pts only twice and even BYU with their very sub par offense put up 50 a game before Texas St. scored 66. The last several years NMSU has been one the worst teams ATS.

Talent has not been Mack's problems lately. It's been coaching, or lack thereof.

He has more talent on his roster than any team he will play this year.

Let's not forget, Mack trailed Kansas last year 17-14, and needed a score in the final 30 seconds to beat Kansas. Kan-sas.

I certainly could see Texas laying waste to New Mexico State, but I don't know if this is the smartest play.

WorkHorse · 07-21-13, 08:25 AM

Brown said in December of 2011 that Texas would win a national title in the next two or three years. He knows what's expected from Longhorn fans this year and what he needs to do for higher rankings. If he can pile it on a lessor team this season...he probably will.

Urbanwildlife · 07-21-13, 01:20 PM

@ WorkHorse
But who the hell knows with Mack Brown, as I have about as much faith in him as I do in Les Miles, but as I stated in my earlier post, I have this game as one of my favorite plays of opening weekend along with Notre Dame and Florida State. Sending nothing but positive energy your way for a super successful season, as it is much deserving with the passion and time you put into doing your due diligence.

suicidekings · 07-21-13, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by WorkHorse

Texas third teams could be New Mexico State by 42.

I take a different approach than what others have mentioned. This team needs confidence early on this season. I think they will score at will and often. I don't know if I'll play this game but if I did, I'd take the Horns -42. NMS couldn't beat many Division II schools. May be the worst team in Division 1 football!

100% agree. I'm not a fan of big spreads for most of the season, but Week 1/2 games are a different animal.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 05:45 PM

wow, i was going to come in here and say NMS wasn't the worst team last year.

BUT,

looking at teamrankings.com, they were 11 points worse than the 2nd worst (Idaho). 24 points worse than the 10th worst (colorado)

i'm gonna double check with sagarin/steele.

gojetsgomoxies · 07-21-13, 05:49 PM

ok, two others have them worst. none anywhere near as far behind 2nd worst. one service has UMass worse.

anyway, terrible last year.

DvdBonan · 07-21-13, 08:46 PM

Its so tough to pick these games.... and what usually happens is you are up 45 with 3 minutes left and get back doored... as much as i want to take texas its just too dangerous and you can probably find better games on the board

BigdaddyQH · 07-22-13, 02:09 PM

I think there is a lot safer plays than Texas on the board in week 1. There has been no action at all on this game in Vegas.

Urbanwildlife · 07-22-13, 02:39 PM

I know I am going to enjoy the stroll to the pay window compliments of the Longhorns, and it is going to feel sooooooooo good!

Givemhell Horns · 08-24-13, 10:22 PM

I'am a paid subscriber to a Longhorn site where the mods are very good and objective. They have said Ash has been very, very impressive. Mentioned going into this season he is ahead of Colt when he was a junior.

The Texas O-line was terrible last year in the running game but not to bad in passing. All starters return with the most combined starts in the country. Not going to be a great line but will be above average. New kid this year left tackle JC transfer Desmond Harrison is a damn monster that could give this line a needed boost. 6'8 315 and if there was ever a lineman to pass the eyeball test it would be this cat, alot of muscle.

WR Austin Franklin considered NMSU best player both sides of the ball has been ruled academically ineligible for the season. The Horns as of to date have no major injuries.

Really feel for anyone that can stomach watching MLB for 2 minutes. Come on College football, home stretch!!!

thetrinity · 08-24-13, 10:48 PM

after looking at some of these beating nm st took last year to lesser teams and considering that they are probably worse or as inept, 42 doesnt sound like so much any more.

i dont really think taking texas in the first half is too smart though, these inferior teams get worn down as the game goes on and it may take texas a qtr or so to get rolling. i do think mack in some hot water and may feel the need to keep the foot on the gas here.

i wouldnt go to nuts on this game either way myself.

Vinnie Paz · 08-25-13, 03:43 AM

Maybe Texas team total is a wiser choice??