Transition into NCAA Week 1

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  • austintx05
    SBR MVP
    • 08-24-06
    • 3156

    #1
    Transition into NCAA Week 1
    Still in MLB Mode, but I started looking at the lines for NCAA tonight. I developed a system last year for football which was very successful, but it factored in home field and off/def production. I startin usin it around week 5 so I could get a better feel on the production of each team.

    I am looking over the lines right now and I know ND, Ohio State, Texas, Michigan, USC, Nebraska all look to be huge public bets and I just dont' like taking those DD spreads in week 1. I always am a bit precautious in the opening weeks because weird upsets seem to happen. NFL Week 1 comes ot mind last season.

    There is 1 game that I am looking at right now.

    UTEP @ SDST -1.5

    I really like SDST laying 1.5 here. St played somes teams like TCU tough at home last year, I remember because I had TCU and it killed me. I did find some interesting stats regarding these two teams going head to head.

    UTEP is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. SDST since 1989
    UTEP is 6-21-1 ATS on the road in September
    since 1991.
    UTEP is 4-11 ATS since 2000 in non-conference
    play.

    UTEP is shaping up to be a public play and at almost a pick 'em, I am leaning towards SD ST.

    Its gonna take me a week or so to transition into NCAA Football, because I have been in MLB Mode for so long, but I would love to hear anyone's thought and/or comments regarding this game.

    Thanks.

  • pags11
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-18-05
    • 12264

    #2
    I'm on UTEP and I don't consider myself a square...
    Comment
    • austintx05
      SBR MVP
      • 08-24-06
      • 3156

      #3
      Why do you like UTEP?
      Comment
      • pags11
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-18-05
        • 12264

        #4
        Redsoxnation,

        for one they have the better coach in Mike Price...I think Chuck Long's playcalling leaves a little to be desired (if you wacthed him call plays at OU)...also, slight edge in QB to UTEP, definite edge at WR to UTEP, SDSU probably has a slight edge at RB, edge to UTEP at kicker as well...defensively, these teams are very similiar, maybe a little more team speed from UTEP, but I'm not sure they're quite as physical as SDSU...

        bottom line is that it's just a game that sticks out to me...I expect it to be a dog fight for a half-to three quarters with UTEP pulling away late...GL...
        Comment
        • bigboydan
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 08-10-05
          • 55420

          #5
          I haven't even really looked too indepth on this game just yet. Although, i'm a little curious on how Chuck Long will do this year. I'm just not convinced he's head coach material just yet.
          Comment
          • Razz
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-22-05
            • 5632

            #6
            Hate your username, like the play. I'm personally waiting, because I think they may close as the dog here.
            Comment
            • pags11
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-18-05
              • 12264

              #7
              Razz,

              sorry we'll be against eachother in this one...yeah, I think SDSU closes as a 2-3 point dog here...justifiably so though IMO...
              Comment
              • austintx05
                SBR MVP
                • 08-24-06
                • 3156

                #8
                also looking at

                Tenn -1
                Miami -3
                Comment
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