Ball State vs. Tulsa GMAC Bowl 8:00 ESPN

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-06-09, 12:19 AM

strictlywinners...let get on this and cap this bitch

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-06-09, 12:21 AM

what kind of surface is this game played on...Ladd Peebles Stadium...Mobile Alabama, Tulsa is a threat on carpet...not so much off

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-06-09, 12:22 AM

Balls In Your Mouth State overall defense #11 vs. Tulsa Defense #84!!!!

Teabag On Your Chin State overall offense #14 vs. Tulsa #2

ADVANTAGE Scrot On Your Lip State

Tulsa 2-3 last 3 SU

**Blaze92585** · 01-06-09, 12:37 AM

I am liking Ball State...Both QBs are nice but Nate Davis of Ball State (projected 2nd round pick in the draft this offseason) is more efficient (7 picks thrown to Johnsons 18) (Turnover Margin on the season per team Ball St +8 Tulsa -8). Johnsons top receiver Brennan Marion blew out his knee in the C-USA game and will be watching from the sidelines. Johnson is also coming off a 5 interceptions game against ECU. Ball St has a better pass defense than Tulsa and I think a more complete team overall. Both teams are coming off a loss. Ball St has not been tested after a loss since this was there first loss of the season. Tulsa on the other hand lost @Houston 70-30 after their first loss to give them back to back losses.

I like Ball St in this game...like them on the ML too. But for +130 it isn't worth it when at the moment I can get +3 @ -105. After a little more in depth research I will make my decision final. For now its looking like a Ball State pick with the points.

**Seattle Slew** · 01-06-09, 12:44 AM

How could Tulsa allow 70 points in a game to Houston? Houston didn't look so great against Air Force, scoring 34.

I'd lean to Ball State. Hoping the line jumps to at least 3.

**Blaze92585** · 01-06-09, 12:45 AM

I am thinking the under as well at 75. Up a point since yesterday so I will hold off to see if it continues to move up

**Blaze92585** · 01-06-09, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by Seattle Slew

How could Tulsa allow 70 points in a game to Houston? Houston didn't look so great against Air Force, scoring 34.

I'd lean to Ball State. Hoping the line jumps to at least 3.

They let Houstons starting QB throw for 402 yds and 6 touchdowns with no picks. Oh yeh then they let the back up come in and he went 5/5 for 59 yards haha.

The line is at 3 and is looking like it is going to move to 3.5

**ijustwant2bpaid** · 01-06-09, 12:50 AM

liking ball state, and i as well am hoping the under might jump but because its already a high # i feel it might be time to jump on due to squares and their instincts to under high numbers. Ball state points I think feels solid, lets hear some input though i wanna hear the other sides reasoning considering Marion is out.

**Husker36** · 01-06-09, 01:30 AM

Here is what I think.......
I like TULSA -3

Tulsa from Conf USA VS Ball St from the Mid America Conference.
First of all.... .comparing the 2 conferences..... they dont even match up. Mid America is 0-4 in the bowl games. We already had one Conf USA vs Mid Amer matchup in the bowl season...... it was RICE vs W MIch and we all know how that come out. It was a nice story when Ball St was undefeated and ranked #12 in the nation. Then they played BUFFALO and got beat 42-24. Now I watched that game and the final score is a little misleading. Ball State completely fell apart at the end and Buffalo returned 2 fumbles for TDs. HOWEVER, Buffalo still beat them and we all saw how good Buffalo was vs UCONN.

A little side note...... when Ball St was undefeated...... they were asked if they beat Buffalo would they want to play undefeated Boise St in the Humanitarian Bowl. Ball St said they would not accept that invitation. It was too far for their fans to travel and it is a home game for Boise St. IMO..... if you are UNDEFEATED.... you wouldnt turn down a chance like that.... to play another undefeated team. IMO.... Ball States coach knows they are highly overrated and they have not played any real talent this year.

So..... I'm taking Tulsa in a game that I see being much like the Rice Western Mich game.

**strictlywinners** · 01-06-09, 02:24 AM

Sportslock you need to give me some time to find some good stats and different motives for each team. If you want my intial thought, just from looking at line, I would go Tulsa and the Over, this is just on a feeling and is subject to change but that is what I like at first glance.

**AdaBarber** · 01-06-09, 02:24 AM

Husker I am with you. I am betting small on this one though!

**strictlywinners** · 01-06-09, 02:27 AM

Husker we are on the same page, only thing that scares me is Nate Davis he is a raw talent. I wish I could sit down and ask him a few questions so I could judge if he is a Quarterback like Matt Ryan and Chad Pennington that shit the bed under preasure, or if he is cool and collected like Flacco and McCoy. Anybody know his # so I can give him a call for a quick interview.

**strictlywinners** · 01-06-09, 02:32 AM

Here is your first little stupid fun fact that makes me love the over, Ball State has not played one game all year that went over the orginal # of 77, they had one that pushed that number recently but thats it.

**demize21** · 01-06-09, 02:51 AM

Ball st +3

**sportsguy04** · 01-06-09, 02:55 AM

Theres going to be Td's no doubt. The -3/+3 wont matter honestly. This game wont be decided by a FG. Highscoring affair and will be decided by atleast a td.

Lean Ball state +3 only because they have a better D than Tulsa.

**_MisterMoney_** · 01-06-09, 03:04 AM

Leaning Tulsa my self right now guys. Gonna look at it some more but about 90% sure I'm going to take Tulsa.

**twitch66** · 01-06-09, 03:38 AM

for what its worth... i'm going with tulsa -3 (7 units) and under 75 (13 units).

a total of 20 units, trying to make up for the ut debacle

**Make_Me_Puss** · 01-06-09, 08:12 AM

bALLLL STATE +3 ALL DAY

**mick** · 01-06-09, 09:28 AM

Weather is going to be nasty this evening severe t-storms. Just can't bet on Ball State after watching them play Buffalo. Hopefully the game will go on and Tulsa should get the job done easily.

**Mr Handicapable** · 01-06-09, 11:19 AM

Yeah the MAC is not strong football but Phil Steele has both of these teams in the bottom 5 for strength of schedule! Yet w/their weak schedule Tulsa still gave up 41 ppg (2-2 SU) in their last 4 road games vs beasts like Marshall and SMU! Tulsa's most dangerous WR Marion is out w/a knee injury (1100 yds, 8 TDs, 25.9 pc)!
Add to that Tulsa's secondary has allowed 32 TDs with only 8 Ints! Ball State has 14 TDs/16 picks and may get a chance to add to their 16 picks w/QB Dave Johnson throwing 5 picks in his last game! Also their kicker hasn't made a FG over 37 yds all season so that will factor in if its close late!
Ball State's coach left but Stan Parrish (O-Coord.) got promoted and this is his first game! BS also has NEVER won a bowl game in their history so they will be pumped up! They overlooked Buffalo because all the talk that week was about the attempt to matchup undefeated Boise w/BS! Naturally, the kids overlooked Buffalo! I think the better D and better QB prevail tonite! I have BS ML +125 and may pickup a little more +3!

**strictlywinners** · 01-06-09, 11:21 AM

Sportslock, I'm in on Tulsa -3 for 2k for now, I still have to make a decision on total whether to take it or leave it alone. Also if this line climbs to 3.5 or 4, I may consider putting 1k on Ball State and just hope for spread to be right on point.

**keitht** · 01-06-09, 11:25 AM

tulsa wins big.... ball st. had a very lucky year... this was a team that won like 2 games in a two year span a few years ago...... they also will have a new coach tonight...... tulsa should handle this cupcake easily........

**jesron1269** · 01-06-09, 11:33 AM

I have a couple of angles that I have been looking at. First, the head coach for Ball State already accepted a job and moved to San Diego State and will not be coaching this game. Second, I question the motivation of this Ball State team. They were undefeated and looking at being a BCS buster and low and behold Buffalo knocked them off the top of their perch. Tulsa also got upset by ECU but with the coaches speak anyway they appear to be pumped up for this game (but of course that is merely coaches speak). Third, Tulsa has a better SOS than Ball State (going to your conference USA argument versus MAC conference). Fourth and probably most importantly, every time we have seen this drastic line movement from dog to favorite the new favorite has won (e.g. Louisiana Tech, Oregon, and Ole Miss).

I am playing Tulsa -2.5 and would lean under 74. I am also playing Tulsa +6 to complete my teaser from last night (played Texas +1 and under 62 in last nights game).

Those are the angles I am looking at. BOL!

**bmw530i** · 01-06-09, 03:04 PM

Sports LP...Balls In Your Mouth State---Got damn haha
For me so far. Over 1st half total 37. pa pa peace

**xxxvince** · 01-06-09, 03:12 PM

its 72.5 now, damn what u guys think abt this bet there will be a score in the first 7 1/2 minutes of the game YES -240. good bet?

**Husker36** · 01-06-09, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by xxxvince

its 72.5 now, damn what u guys think abt this bet there will be a score in the first 7 1/2 minutes of the game YES -240. good bet?

I would be willing to be there will be 2 scores by then!

**xxxvince** · 01-06-09, 03:30 PM

cool i got 60 bucks they will score in the first 7.5 mins -240 hope they do it .. though i went under 72.5 for the game

**DIF** · 01-06-09, 05:26 PM

+3 -102 in price for more than an hour on ball state. (bet jamaica) its still there.

**DIF** · 01-06-09, 05:37 PM

gone now -115 +3

**JsmooveFTW** · 01-06-09, 05:56 PM

Guys, I'd hold your horses and watch the radar up until gametime. Heavy rain is just now moving into the area and it's not going to stop for a long while. I was going to go with Tulsa -3 but no play here with the rain. I want to make a large play on the under but being our new offensive coordinator is coaching his last game at Tulsa, I want to actually watch the game not possible having to hope his offense falters. I can't see them reaching 72 regardless, but nevertheless passing on this. If it wasn't for the rain I'd go big on Tulsa ATS, but the under is the real play now.

**ElCapitan** · 01-06-09, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by jesron1269

...every time we have seen this drastic line movement from dog to favorite the new favorite has won (e.g. Louisiana Tech, Oregon, and Ole Miss).

I suppose the LA Tech/NIU game might qualify as "drastic line movement" but Ole Miss went from +7 to +4 - that makes them still a dog.

What about Clemson and Nebraska? Clemson started out as the dog (+1 to -2.5) closed as the favorite and they lost.

Pitt/Ore St?? Pitt opened at +3, closed as a pick and they lost.

WV/NC?? WV opened at +1, closed at -2.5 - they lost against the closing number

I think I'd throw that angle out.

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-06-09, 06:19 PM

i like Tulsa team total UNDER 38, it may be Balls In Your Mouth State that hangs the 50 spot on this horrific defense...

**strictlywinners** · 01-06-09, 06:27 PM

Damn so we aren't on same play tonight, you didn't like any regular total or side play. I hate taking team totals.

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-06-09, 07:42 PM

total is down to 69!!!