Firm Fiasco Bowl Picks

[Fiasco]

This is my thread to track my bowl picks and losses this bowl season...

All plays are in UNITS

Plays aren't meant to be followed but I'd like to share my views and opinions on the games... Haven't dedicated much time to football this year as I've been busy with college, and working on college and pro basketball... I have hit my large plays this year though in college football, my biggest being on USC over Ohio State (along with everyone else...)
To the best of my ability though, my bowl selections...

Plays will be posted when I make my final decisions...

I like to parlay picks when possible. That way I don't have to hit 52% to profit

To start things off today...Navy/Wake
Navy has covered their previous 4 bowl games with each game going OVER the posted total... They're 7-2 in bowl games the past 30 years... (and 18-5 in December games since 92)

ACC is horrific when favored in bowl games... hitting like 23% (3-10) in their last 13... they hit 3-5-1 as favs against non bcs conferences

Parlay:
Navy vs Wake Forest (ESPN)(Eagle Bank Bowl @ RFK Stadium, Washington, DC) Navy +3
Navy vs Wake Forest (ESPN)(Eagle Bank Bowl @ RFK Stadium, Washington, DC) Over 43.5
1 to win 2.65

Navy +1.5 1h
1.05 to win 1

Lets start Bowl Season off right!

More picks to come as the day passes...(love memphis right now but haven't played it yet)

[Fiasco]

Navy let me down, so close to being up 20-0 cruising to a W and heading over... Hit the over but only because of the "burn" td by wake late to give the huge popular favorite the cover... It was a loss pretty much any way for me going into the 4th so I'm not bitter. (I did cash the 1h after all...)

on the day 1-1 +0 U

On to the 2nd game. Only 1 play on these terrible teams...
Fresno State is a letdown
but Colorodo State is absolutely terrible, arguably the worst team to get a bid... no real need for a write up as both teams are ridiculously bad ats in such roles... I feel the better team wins today, and the game goes under... after all bowl history leads to under and I see more of a 35-14 victory by fresno...

Under looks like the best bet and I'll parlay that with fresno at -2.5

Parlay:
Fresno St vs Colorado St (ESPN)(New Mexico Bowl @ University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM) Fresno St -2.5
Fresno St vs Colorado St (ESPN)(New Mexico Bowl @ University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM) Under 61.5
1 to win 2.65

GL

[Fiasco]

1-2 (-1 Units) on the day

1 parlay for tonight

Pac-10 is 4-13 against non bcs conference teams in bowl games recently. The under is 11-6 in these games... Mountain west is 10-6 (now 11-6 after today) in bowl games over the previous 4 seasons. As a dog of over 3, the Mountain West is 6-2 ats recently... In the last 11 games in the mountain west bowl games, the under has been 7-4 with mwc teams holding opponents to under 20 8 times...
BYU is terrible against the spread this year and struggles against fast teams. With that said I backed them as I feel that defense will pay more of a role in tonights game and expect the game to be close... 24-21 type finish

Parlay
BYU vs Arizona U (ESPN)(Las Vagas Bowl @ Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas NV) BYU +3.5 -120
BYU vs Arizona U (ESPN)(Las Vagas Bowl @ Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas NV) Under 61
1 to win 2.5

[Fiasco]

1-3 (-2 Units)

Rough day yesterday on parlays to start the bowl season off... Today I look to get back on track with Southern Miss and the Under...

Southern Miss has tightened up on D giving up only 35 pts in last 4 outings and winning each of those games SU and ATS... Troy on the other hand has given up only 29 points in 15 of the past 16 qtrs only faltering in the 4th against lsu giving up 30... D will dominate this bowl game I believe, as I believe it goes down to the end with Southern Miss getting the upset victory on a late fg. 27-24

Under hit in 4 of last 5 s miss bowl games and they're 3-1 su and ats in pre-chistmas bowl play...

A close defensive game means the points and the UNDER

Troy vs SO Mississippi (ESPN)(New Orleans Bowl @ Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans LA) Under 54.5
Troy vs SO Mississippi (ESPN)(New Orleans Bowl @ Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans LA) SO Mississippi +4.5
1 to win 2.65

gl

[Fiasco]

1-4 (-3 Units)

Going for my first true win tonight with Boise St +3 parlayed with the over...

Everyone seems to be on TCU and the Under. They site that TCU has the supurior defense and Boise stands no chance playing with the big boys... I disagree. I see both defenses as very good, yet Boise having the supurior O. Most see the game as a 24-17 type finish... I think both teams put up at least 24 and see boise winning it late 31-28...

Underdogs are 4-1 in last 5 Boise st bowl games...
4 of last 5 Boise St bowl games have gone over the posted total averaging just over 74 pts a game.
Underdog in TCU bowl games is on a 6-3 ats run
Both teams had great numbers ats coming in, with tcu showing more success in bowl games in the past... (Boise beat tcu 34-31 in 03)

Overall I think Boise will be upset that they didn't get a BCS bid and will be out to prove themselves. With the heavy focus on how great these defenses are I feel it will be a shootout... If it is a shootout, edge goes to boise and the ticket cashes...

I remind all that I'm clearly terrible at forcasting games... fade and win

TCU vs Boise St (ESPN)(Poinesettia Bowl @ Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA) Over 45
TCU vs Boise St (ESPN)(Poinesettia Bowl @ Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA) Boise St +3 -105
1 to win 2.73

TCU vs Boise St (1st Half) Boise St +2.5 -110
1.1 to win 1

TCU vs Boise St (ESPN)(Poinesettia Bowl @ Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA) Boise St +145
1 to win 1.45

GL

[Fiasco]

Adding 2h play since first half hit:

TCU vs Boise St (2nd Half) Boise St +6 even
TCU vs Boise St (2nd Half) Over 23.5 -110
1 to win 2.82

[Fiasco]

2-7 (-5 Units)


Notre Dame -2.5
3.3 to win 3

TEASER:
Hawaii +10
Over 41
3.25 to win 2.5

No way Notre Dame loses tonight... If somehow the sun has gotten to them this week however, It won't be a result of lack of points... I really think Notre Dame rolls 35-28 in this one and am looking to middle the game with my teaser... and get back on the winning side of things.

Hawaii will play there hearts out against a pitiful Notre Dame squad. They'll have success on offense and will struggle on D causing the game to go over... A lot are on hawaii ML... I'll take 10 points and predict the game falls between a 3 and 10 in the Irish favor... not to push my luck or anything (pushes don't lose)

GL

[Fiasco]

Adding

ND/Hawai Over 48.5

2.2 to win 2

[Fiasco]

4-8 (-3.25 Units)

I feel confident on todays bowl games... hope to finally see profit this bowl season or drown today trying...

First Halves
W Virginia vs N Carolina (1st Half) N Carolina +0.5 -120
Wisconsin vs Florida St (1st Half) Florida St -3 -115
Miami Florida vs California (1st Half) California -6 -110
1 to win 5.56

N Carolina +0.5 1 to win 2

UNC +120
2.5 to win 3

Miami +300
1 to win 3

Miami Florida vs California (ESPN)(Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park, San Francisco CA) California -10
Miami Florida vs California (ESPN)(Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park, San Francisco CA) Over 50.5
1 to win 2.65

Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Florida St -6 even
Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Over 52
1 to win 2.82

W Virginia vs N Carolina (ESPN)(Meineke Care Bowl @ Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte NC) Under 47
Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Over 52
Miami Florida vs California (ESPN)(Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park, San Francisco CA) Over 50.5
1 to win 6

Miami Florida vs California (ESPN)(Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park, San Francisco CA) California -10
Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Florida St -6 even
W Virginia vs N Carolina (ESPN)(Meineke Care Bowl @ Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte NC) N Carolina +120
1 to win 7.4


And just because I feel so good about today I threw a unit on a parlay of all games sides and totals today...

W Virginia vs N Carolina (ESPN)(Meineke Care Bowl @ Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte NC) N Carolina +120
W Virginia vs N Carolina (ESPN)(Meineke Care Bowl @ Bank Of America Stadium, Charlotte NC) Under 47
Miami Florida vs California (ESPN)(Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park, San Francisco CA) California -10
Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Florida St -6 even
Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Over 52
Miami Florida vs California (ESPN)(Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park, San Francisco CA) Over 50.5
1 to win 57.45

Good Luck Today

[Fiasco]

Adding

Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Florida St -0.5 tzd 6.5 -105
Wisconsin vs Florida St (ESPN)(Champs Sports Bowl @ Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando Fl) Over 44.5 tzd -6.5
Miami Florida vs California (ESPN)(Emerald Bowl @ AT&T Park, San Francisco CA) Over 44 tzd -6.5
4 Units to win 7.2

[Fiasco]

7-15 (-4.37)

NC State vs Rutgers (ESPN)(Papa Johns Bowl @ Legion Field, Birmingham AL) NC State +17 tzd 10 -120
Northwestern vs Missouri (ESPN)(Alamo Bowl @ Alamodome, San Antonio TX) Missouri -2.5 tzd 10
NC State vs Rutgers (ESPN)(Papa Johns Bowl @ Legion Field, Birmingham AL) Under 68 tzd 10
3.6 to win 3

NC State vs Rutgers (ESPN)(Papa Johns Bowl @ Legion Field, Birmingham AL) NC State +210
1 to win 2.1

NC State vs Rutgers (ESPN)(Papa Johns Bowl @ Legion Field, Birmingham AL) NC State +7 -120
3.6 to win 3

GL

[Fiasco]

Adding:

Northwestern vs Missouri (ESPN)(Alamo Bowl @ Alamodome, San Antonio TX) Over 67
Northwestern vs Missouri (ESPN)(Alamo Bowl @ Alamodome, San Antonio TX) Missouri -13.5
1 to win 2.65

Northwestern vs Missouri (ESPN)(Alamo Bowl @ Alamodome, San Antonio TX) Over 67
4.4 to win 4

GL

[Fiasco]

9-20 (-4.77 Units)

W Michigan vs Rice (NFL NETWORK)(Texas Bowl @ Reliant Stadium, Houston TX) Rice -2.5
4.4 to win 4

W Michigan vs Rice (NFL NETWORK)(Texas Bowl @ Reliant Stadium, Houston TX) Over 74
6.6 To Win 6 **** BIGGEST PLAY OF THE BOWL SEASON THUS FAR

W Michigan vs Rice (NFL NETWORK)(Texas Bowl @ Reliant Stadium, Houston TX) Rice -2.5
W Michigan vs Rice (NFL NETWORK)(Texas Bowl @ Reliant Stadium, Houston TX) Over 74
2 to win 5.3

W Michigan vs Rice (NFL NETWORK)(Texas Bowl @ Reliant Stadium, Houston TX) Rice -2.5
Nevada vs Maryland (ESPN)(Humanitarian Bowl @ Bronco Stadium, Bois ID) Maryland +3
W Michigan vs Rice (NFL NETWORK)(Texas Bowl @ Reliant Stadium, Houston TX) Over 74
1 to win 6

(Lean was all over Nevada but the Terps prepare better, are from a stronger conference, ACC plays extremely well as dogs, and good running teams don't bother them... Just threw them into my favorite game of the day for fun...)

GL Today