Leans for Satuday 12/6/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Satuday 12/6/08
    Oh my, I see some teams that should not be catching points this weekend.

    Hawaii+8

    First of all when teams go to the Honolulu, they get mesmerized by the beauty of the island and the women and the partying. Then they step onto the field as favorites and rarely cover. WAC teams are not afraid of any conference or of any team. And that is an awful ong plane ride that the Bearcats are going to make before all of the festivities, as well as a sever time change. Interesting stat: the Bearcats have not played one single game this season in pacific standard time. I'll take the home dog in this one with only 13% of bettors on their side.

    Virginia Tech+1

    Boston College is not as used to the big stage as the Turkeys. Only a last second pick preserved the victory for them last week against Maryland, which I feel after watching the game outplayed the Eagles. Virginia Tech is a grind it out type f team that wins with unusual ways of scoring. A blocked kick, a safety, etc. They are playing this game with revenge after a close heartbreaking loss to the Eagles earlier this year 28-23, which incidently was the first time they were made a dog against BC in 10 games. To make the Turkeys underdogs to BC twice in the same season is another first. With only 19% of bettors on the side of the Turkeys, i will have to ride with them in this matchup.

    UCONN-2.5

    This promises to be a close game with a last possession win. UCONN has Pitt's number going 3-1 ats in their breif series history, and are coming into this game off a bye week to work out the kinks and get prepared after a road loss to South Florida. Pitt meanwhile upset the West Virginia Mountaineers and are still riding the emotional high of that game. Now comes the bad: UCONN only gives up 18.5 points per game, and 290 total yards on defense. Pittsburgh surrenders 24.2 points per game. Since this will be a defensive struggle, I have to roll with the home team getting the calls and less bettors on their side (18%).
  • MSUSpartan32
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-01-08
    • 948

    #2
    Against you on the Hawaii game. You make solid points, but this is a Cincy team that was even competitive in the Oklahoma game for a bit. The time change and other things will be issues, but Cincy is a very good football team and I think finds a way to win this game by 7-10 points. FWIW, I bought it down to 6.5

    Status of BC quarterback? Without him, if it's the Davis kid that played last week, I love the Hokies.
    Comment
    • cocknocker
      Restricted User
      • 11-06-08
      • 8001

      #3
      Midweek report

      Boston College is still enjoying a 66% edge with bettors and still favored by 1.

      Hawaii has only 16% of bettors on their side, yet the line has now gone down from 8 to 7. That is great reverse movement.

      UCONN has only 32% and is still a 2.5 favorite.

      So all of my games mid week are still looking good!
      Comment
      • cocknocker
        Restricted User
        • 11-06-08
        • 8001

        #4
        I can't believe that the Crimson tide is getting that many points with a defense as good as theirs is. Wow! I may have to get a couple of dollars in on that one. Maybe maybe not on that one.

        But another game that is getting my attention is Arizona State at Arizona. Despite 60% of bettors on their side (Arizona), the line has not moved any. Arizona State is 5-1 straight up against Arizona and 5-1 ats on the road at Arizona. They were picked pre season to contend with USC for the PAC 10 title, but injuries hurt their cause. The Sun Devils become bowl eligible with a win, which means a maximum effort will be put forth in this game. I think that the Sun Devils will pull off an outright upset in this game.

        So I have updated my card to include the Sun Devils

        UCONN-3 ( I will play it at -2.5 however buying a hook)
        Arizona State+10.5
        Virginia Tech+1
        Hawaii+7.5 (Kind of on the fence about this one I want a higher amount of points)
        Last edited by cocknocker; 12-04-08, 08:17 PM.
        Comment
        • cocknocker
          Restricted User
          • 11-06-08
          • 8001

          #5
          Bama is being given too many points in this matchup, and the moneyline is waaaaay off on this game. A 10.5 point spread should have an accompanied moneyline of -450/+325. However, the moneyline for this game is -360/+300, which is the moneyline for a 7 to 7.5 spread. I love the points in this matchup. You just can't give a defense like that a 14 point lead. I am all over the Elephants in this one.
          I am also going to play the moneyline too. So my updated plays are:

          UCONN-2.5 (bought a hook)
          Virginia Tech-1
          Alabama+10.5
          Arizona State+10.5

          Dropped Hawaii
          Comment
          • Rixsaw
            SBR MVP
            • 10-23-08
            • 4532

            #6
            Good luck bro...I'll be on Bama and VT.
            Comment
            • The_Kid
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-09-08
              • 5049

              #7
              Originally posted by cocknocker
              Virginia Tech+1

              Boston College is not as used to the big stage as the Turkeys. Only a last second pick preserved the victory for them last week against Maryland, which I feel after watching the game outplayed the Eagles. Virginia Tech is a grind it out type f team that wins with unusual ways of scoring. A blocked kick, a safety, etc. They are playing this game with revenge after a close heartbreaking loss to the Eagles earlier this year 28-23, which incidently was the first time they were made a dog against BC in 10 games. To make the Turkeys underdogs to BC twice in the same season is another first. With only 19% of bettors on the side of the Turkeys, i will have to ride with them in this matchup.

              UCONN-2.5

              This promises to be a close game with a last possession win. UCONN has Pitt's number going 3-1 ats in their breif series history, and are coming into this game off a bye week to work out the kinks and get prepared after a road loss to South Florida. Pitt meanwhile upset the West Virginia Mountaineers and are still riding the emotional high of that game. Now comes the bad: UCONN only gives up 18.5 points per game, and 290 total yards on defense. Pittsburgh surrenders 24.2 points per game. Since this will be a defensive struggle, I have to roll with the home team getting the calls and less bettors on their side (18%).
              CK, I'm tailing you on those football plays. Rough night in the NBA, but tomorrow is another day.
              Comment
              • jackpot269
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 09-24-07
                • 12827

                #8
                Looks like a solid card to me GL cn
                Comment
                • peterpan19
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-02-08
                  • 3377

                  #9
                  ck

                  do you think mizz +17 has at least a chance of covering today against oklahoma ??
                  Comment
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