P #19
Fla -16.5 > Fsu
__________
Ats:
Cbb: 4-5-1
Cfb: 1-1
Nfl: 5-1
Overall: 10-7-1
Fla -16.5 > Fsu
__________
Ats:
Cbb: 4-5-1
Cfb: 1-1
Nfl: 5-1
Overall: 10-7-1
-
-
I hate when it changes the letters to lower case.
Anyways, maybe this a spot where one should give pause.... being that it is rivalry game with history and so forth. But Florida has been in absolute annihilation mode these past few weeks. They are 8-2 ATS with one of those ATS losses coming by a point. Basically, in recent weeks they're avg'ing roughly 6 touchdowns and giving up less than 1 Td/game. Their defense is destroying people and they are absolutely blitzing people.
Bottom line in sports betting is that you don't fade a tidal wave. It will stop eventually and the spreads will catch up with it, but right now Florida is an irresistible force.
Worst-case scenario Florida gets 5 TD's. I can't see FSU getting more than 2 TD's. The spread seems huge (-16.5) for a regular team, and especially against a home dog in a rivalry game, but 17 pts to Florida is like a touchdown to other teams.Comment -
I know this is off topic, but am I reading this right? You managed to post 36 messages to the board each day from the time you joined 6 days ago? Woah! Now that's forum dedication, IMO.Comment -
Florida may have a few drives ending in FGA's, so give em 6-9 pts extra. FSU may have similar attempts so give them 3-6 pts extra. But at the end of the game when FSU is down big, FG's won't be on the menu. So I expect a range of 21-30 for the final spread.
FSU max pts: 17 ... range (7-17)
FLO min pts: 38 ... range (38-48 ... maybe 51)Comment -
Spoon -- you are correct, sir. Love this site.
...
Also, back-door cover possibility... Assuming a the tightest game possible that FSU can manage, I'd see Florida up 10 in the 4th quarter. This still leaves open the door for a 17-pt win. But I just can't see FSU within 10 pts in the 4th quarter.
Maybe the Florida express stops today, but I think it keeps going.Comment -
One concern is the total in this game and it's relation to the spread. Historically, at least recently, FLO/FSU games have gone under. And although Florida has been pounding the Over lately with their destruction of other teams, the total opened at a high and has dipped down. That is not a good correlation for a large spread unless the losing team gets held to zilch and donuts.Comment -
One last point. Style points. In light of Boise St and Oklahoma's recent annihilation of opposing teams and the whole BCS bullshit, Florida must continue to look good.
A 17-pt win is not a good outcome for Florida in this game. Anyways, the dye is cast.Comment -
Nailed it.
Fla -16.5 > Fsu
45-15 FT
__________
ATS:
CBB: 4-5-1
CFB: 2-1
NFL: 5-1
Overall: 11-7-1Comment