Serbone Bowl Thread

[Serbone]

15-14 + 4*

Good picks today 5-1 and a little luck with some, finally no back-door-dog-covers or any bs like that. Fla State had 324 yds at halftime and stuffed NI, only led 14-3. Drive me crazy. But they pulled away to cover like good favorites do. Some bs big name service touts had GOY's on Nebraska and Wisconsin, blah, blah. They are jokes.
SIX bowl games to go, some great gambling match ups. And we have learned a lot about the relative strenghts of conferences, other things, too.



(still pissed about the Duke game; will be a yr for that one to wear off; 3 in 1,400 according to ESPN sports gambling probability guru... have I mentioned that? at "the bar" I frequent, you are either a "had Duke" guy or an "asshole who had Cincinnati" guy)

[CakeMan]

Thanks for sharing

I have to tell you - I really appreciate your picks and also the insight you share as to why you selecting those picks(even though I may not agree with the selection prior to reading) but once I see things on the other "side of the coin" by reading your posts .... which after many years of being strong minded (and losing my shirt) - I have learned to see things the differently and now I am simply not losing.
In short .... I am trailing you and I plan on doing so for some time to come.

So I'm going to tell you who I like this evening and why - although I may not get you to agree but after reading Tell me what you think of how I see this.

I like Louisville +14 and I'm leaning under and here is why:
I'm looking at tonight's match up as to what last night's match up was between FSU and NIU. Gators defense is stout just like FSU. Gators are 14 point favorites just like FSU. Game is in the south (Kentucky not as North as Ill). but its up there so Gators have a home turf advantage just like FSU did last night - doesn't matter if school sponsors 66 buses - Gators will be the home team and we will hear it. This is what I see that is different that really persuades me to see Louisville to cover and possibly have shot of winning out right:
EJ Manual (FSU QB) is much more effective and productive (by the #'s) and in my opinion better than Jeff Driskel (Gators QB). I see Louisville coming out of the Big East going up against a SEC powerhouse which is not as much as a gap of last nights head to head MAC conference Champ vs FSU. I also see Louisville being down to Rutgers (awesome DEF, IMO) coming back to win 20-17 (they were down at halftime 14-3) - did I mention they played without their star (Big East player of the year) Teddy Bridgewater. Yes he is back and healthy at 100% for this game. Louisville also has former Defensive coordinator Charlie Strong now coaching Louisville. He knows the Gator scheme and its vulnerabilities. Don't get it wrong - Gillislee (rb GATORS) is awesome but so are many of the Big East RBs. I see this being a tight game similar to last night up into the 4th quater - but I think Louisville's defense is better and can hold for an entire game without fake punts, onside kicks etc - by the way - how the hell wasn't FSU ready for that - makes me crazy .... since Strong is a defensive fabric coach unlike NIU offensive cooridinator fill in last night!
Prediction: Gators 24-17
Serbone - Where do you disagree. I truely do value your opinion more so than any other on the web. I have been reading your posts for years and this is my first time reaching out. Good luck and thanks again for the insight!
Sorry so long.

[lesterdymond]

Well said by the Cake man.

Where ya @ Serbone?

[CakeMan]

I'm going to be bi-polar for a second ...

Are you crazy Cake man
- Big East and MAC both suck equally
- Louisville are not blowing out opponents that are mediocre
- Gators are pissed they are not playing in Championship - and they will show it by destroying Louisville
- Gators shut Down Manziel - you mean they cant shut down Bridgewater???? - they are averaging stopping 515 of pass plays

Gators win by 28 and the game still goes under!!

[Serbone]

15-14 + 4*

4* Florida - 14

Motivation wise, again I fear the big favorite will look at this as a "consolation game", Florida was in the running for BCS Championship until the end. And Louisville coach Strong is a good motivator, coming back against Florida where he was DC for several years. But I am counting on aggressive newer up and coming star Florida coach Mushchamp, he is a driver, will be pushing his team on the sidelines, he wants the Sugar Bowl win for his program, for his resume. He is aware of the legendary Bama flop against Utah in this exact same spot several years back.

But everything else points to Florida. Everything except the QB position, and that is over emphasized.

We have an elite, outstanding 11-1 SEC team, loaded with NFL beef, that beat A&M, LSU, So Carolina, Vandy, and Florida State. Florida is arguably the # 4 team in the land, played the # 8 SOS in the NCAA (Sagarin) against a banged up Big East team, about the # 50 team in the land, played the # 82 toughest schedule. Who did Louisville beat? They struggled to come from behind to nip Rutgers to get here. Rutgers. Florida's "D" is # 1 or so in the NCAA in ypg; they have a talented and deep DL against a Louisville OL that has allowed a ton of sacks. On artificial turf, their speed and athleticism will be magnified.

Louisville has an advantage at QB but that might be negated... Bridgewater is still a bit banged up and will be a marked man. Will he last the whole game? Also, the # 1 RB for Louisville has been out for the season last 2-3 games, they will struggle running, and Florida will tee off on Bridgewater. I think there will be several turnovers in Florida's favor as Bridgewater scrambles around and gets pounded. Sure, he will hit a few stray WR's for some good gains but he cannot outrun the rush all night and the Florida secondary is excellent, some will play on Sunday's.

Florida's "O" is underrated, do not fall for those stats, they play in The SEC, the best "D" in NCAA bar none. LSU, So Carolina, etc. I know Florida is only throwing for 143 ypg but I expect Driskel to go well over 225+ tonight, he is finally healthy, a little more experienced, is a very good, smart athlete, and his confidence has improved, they will pound the ball down Louisvile's throat with RB Gillislee and when Louisville crowds the line he will hit some WR's for big gains. I think it will be a breakout night for him. The Louisville "D" is inconsistent, I think they will falter against the run, their stats against the run are poor.

So SEC top notch team (best conference by far), healthy, superior talent, beat several bowl teams, ambitious coach, great "D", southern team in the South, vs northern Big East (not impressed by Big East in bowls so far and dont say Syracuse they beat WV who I still categorize as Big East) pretender, banged up, weak OL, I am going with the big favorite.


(you WANT to take the big 14 pt dog, after last night you think it is "due"... ha, do not think that way!)

[CakeMan]

and that is why ...

I will be taking Gators. And I will be scratching my head wondering what I was thinking while the Cards are down 17 in the 2nd quater and the trainers are peeling Bridgewater off of the field and the OC is wondering why they cant get a first down. Total?????

[BMoreBird]

i took over @ 46... i'm a gators fan and i see the offense from the second half of the fl st game showing up. they want to rep the SEC well in this bcs game. florida is going to go all out. even if they hold louisville under 20 points (which i think they will) florida will put up over 30. good luck.

[BMoreBird]

gators-14 and over 46.

[Serbone]

I rarely wager totals in football. Neither team is motivated. Turnovers close to the end zone either way will kill you.
Damn, so far 15-14, went 5-0, then 0-11, then 10-2.


(goddam Bowling Green / Duke worst back to-back-bad-beats, ever)

[Tony Truong]

15-14 + 4*

4* Florida - 14

Motivation wise, again I fear the big favorite will look at this as a "consolation game", Florida was in the running for BCS Championship until the end. And Louisville coach Strong is a good motivator, coming back against Florida where he was DC for several years. But I am counting on aggressive newer up and coming star Florida coach Mushchamp, he is a driver, will be pushing his team on the sidelines, he wants the Sugar Bowl win for his program, for his resume. He is aware of the legendary Bama flop against Utah in this exact same spot several years back.

But everything else points to Florida. Everything except the QB position, and that is over emphasized.

We have an elite, outstanding 11-1 SEC team, loaded with NFL beef, that beat A&M, LSU, So Carolina, Vandy, and Florida State. Florida is arguably the # 4 team in the land, played the # 8 SOS in the NCAA (Sagarin) against a banged up Big East team, about the # 50 team in the land, played the # 82 toughest schedule. Who did Louisville beat? They struggled to come from behind to nip Rutgers to get here. Rutgers. Florida's "D" is # 1 or so in the NCAA in ypg; they have a talented and deep DL against a Louisville OL that has allowed a ton of sacks. On artificial turf, their speed and athleticism will be magnified.

Louisville has an advantage at QB but that might be negated... Bridgewater is still a bit banged up and will be a marked man. Will he last the whole game? Also, the # 1 RB for Louisville has been out for the season last 2-3 games, they will struggle running, and Florida will tee off on Bridgewater. I think there will be several turnovers in Florida's favor as Bridgewater scrambles around and gets pounded. Sure, he will hit a few stray WR's for some good gains but he cannot outrun the rush all night and the Florida secondary is excellent, some will play on Sunday's.

Florida's "O" is underrated, do not fall for those stats, they play in The SEC, the best "D" in NCAA bar none. LSU, So Carolina, etc. I know Florida is only throwing for 143 ypg but I expect Driskel to go well over 225+ tonight, he is finally healthy, a little more experienced, is a very good, smart athlete, and his confidence has improved, they will pound the ball down Louisvile's throat with RB Gillislee and when Louisville crowds the line he will hit some WR's for big gains. I think it will be a breakout night for him. The Louisville "D" is inconsistent, I think they will falter against the run, their stats against the run are poor.

So SEC top notch team (best conference by far), healthy, superior talent, beat several bowl teams, ambitious coach, great "D", southern team in the South, vs northern Big East (not impressed by Big East in bowls so far and dont say Syracuse they beat WV who I still categorize as Big East) pretender, banged up, weak OL, I am going with the big favorite.


(you WANT to take the big 14 pt dog, after last night you think it is "due"... ha, do not think that way!)

Good luck tonight Serbone ! Thank you for your messages. Happy New Year .

[Serbone]

4* Kansas State + 8

Going early here, a risk (suspensions, unknown injuries), but want to take them now; it was a 2-3*, now 4*.
Oregon coach Kelly rumors confirmed, he is interviewing with The goddam Cleveland Browns Monday, all over the media.
The kids probably have known, but now they know for sure, they might be miffed, even devastated; could affect the outcome IMO.
And I like Kansas State coach Snyder, The Rock of Gibralter, to get this win, the players love him.
More write up tomorrow, liked Kansas State anyway, Big 12 vs Pac 12, good "D", star QB Klein was concussed and now is back 100%, KST can run and throw whereas Oregon is 65% run, Snyder will figure it out in 5 weeks, he has good DB's and can load up against the run... yes I know Baylor ran for > 340 yds on KST... again, more tommorrow.

[Serbone]

15-15 (0.4)*

Florida shat the bed, played half assed, thug football.
I had respect for coach Mushchamp until last night; the media credits Strong, we gamblers correctly blame Mushchamp.
Florida was unprepared and out of control.
Biggest BCS upset in history, 14 pts, and, what + 425 ML?
The key was that there was NO WAY Louisville "O" goes up and down the field on the Florida "D" like that if they were prepared and focused.
Sure, many thought Florida would be in a "consolation bowl" mode, they were right, I was wrong. I thought a BCS bowl and Mushchamp would get the players playing football.
Some of these kids that do not go pro will realize some day sitting at the bar that they could have won the Sugar Bowl and let it go. Goddam Sugar Bowl.





Motivation in this one is tough. I am sticking with Snyder's leadership, so 4* Kansas State + 8. Word has been out about Oregon coach Kelly interviewing openly with NFL teams, Cleveland apparently visited him in Arizona with his kids in a bowl game tonight, what an jerk.

The Big 12 has looked pretty good... Baylor, OK St, Texas all covered strong, TT (without a coach) won but did not cover. Pac 12 has been a bit shakey, UCLA, USC, got pounded, AZ State beat an overmatched Navy squad, Stanford won a squeaker over 5 now 6 loss Wisconsin. Hey, Stanford beat Oregon. I know, when you get to the top teams and the BCS, you do not look as strongly at conference depth.

I think KST QB Klein will keep the ball away from Oregon as best as possible... good balance of run and pass and he is healthy and can run himself at the right moments. He was The Heisman Trophy leader 'til he got concussed. I do not think Klein was 100% against Baylor when they got run over for 340+ yards rushing.

Hey, KST beart Oklahoma, TT, OK ST, and Texas. They have seen some "wild" offenses and won, though a lot of them were throw first. I think KST will be good at focusing on the run and make Oregon pass more than they want. Also, the natural turf hinders the quick cuts of the Oregon RB's, they run the ball 2 of 3 plays. KST was # 18 SOS (Sagarin) vs # 41 for Oregon.

I think there is a reasonable chance, too, that Kelly's betrayal of the team will hurt their effort tonight... in a certain sense, they are not playing for anything... though it IS The Fiesta Bowl... if one team will be more focused than the other, I would bet Snyder's KST team compared to Kelly's Ducks. I think Oregon was completely convinced they would be in the BCS Title game when the season got going, whereas KST did not think that, so perhaps this is a bigger game for them.

The sharps are mostly on KST, the huckster touts are mostly on Oregon. Kansas State, I say.








(note to self: next year, SEC teams # 2 & 3 & maybe 4, big favorites, no matter how logical it is to take the much superior team, take the goddam dog... SEC teams that were competing for the BCS Championship just plain do not play hard in bowls... Georgia was fortunate to cover. LSU and Florida lost outright. I knew this, thought BCS bowl game + ambitious driving coach would push them to play hard.)

[CakeMan]

Over over over. Leaning OU

[Serbone]

15-15 (4.4)*

3* Texas A&M - 3

Bottom line: Landry Jones will fold like a cheap lawnchair, hide like a little girl, with those A&M defenders swarming on him on artificial turf.

[CakeMan]

Well Serbone -
I must say - Florida and Kansas St hurt my balance this week. I look to rebound tonight. I was thinking OU all day and I waited to hear why you were on the side you were on. But I'm shocked that you didn't give some kind of support backing up your 4.4* pick. As you pointed out in a previous post - most people on here come on a give a blurp and say TAM goona run up and down the field on OU tonight. I was hoping for your substance, your head scratching interesting trendy facts that support your chosen side like this:
I like the over tonight because out of the last 10 games these 2 teams met - 7 of the match ups went over. I really hope you get the mojo back tonight because I'm gonna trail you. The messed up thing is that both the Florida game (pick 6 on play 2) and the Oregon game (opening kickoff) - I knew I lost the wager and I had chosen the wrong side - I know you don't like totals but I this is one I think I will throw in on an IF bet. I love the over.

[Serbone]

Well Serbone -
I must say - Florida and Kansas St hurt my balance this week. I look to rebound tonight. I was thinking OU all day and I waited to hear why you were on the side you were on. But I'm shocked that you didn't give some kind of support backing up your 4.4* pick. As you pointed out in a previous post - most people on here come on a give a blurp and say TAM goona run up and down the field on OU tonight. I was hoping for your substance, your head scratching interesting trendy facts that support your chosen side like this:
I like the over tonight because out of the last 10 games these 2 teams met - 7 of the match ups went over. I really hope you get the mojo back tonight because I'm gonna trail you. The messed up thing is that both the Florida game (pick 6 on play 2) and the Oregon game (opening kickoff) - I knew I lost the wager and I had chosen the wrong side - I know you don't like totals but I this is one I think I will throw in on an IF bet. I love the over.

Yep the kids from Florida did not show up... and most though Oregon would not.... Lou Holtz made a big deal that Oregon would not play hard, predicted KST win right before the game. WRONG.
And yes, both games started down 7-0 in 20 seconds or whatever.
Sorry not going to do the write up tonight...

[CakeMan]

.... ok then im fading u tonight

You r ice cold. Ok st and over. Sorry Serbone but you are moosh. I started my own thread .... I suggested you trail me for winners you desperately need.

[Serbone]

You r ice cold. Ok st and over. Sorry Serbone but you are moosh. I started my own thread .... I suggested you trail me for winners you desperately need.

?

Hey, I had A&M -3.

You had the A&M-Oklahoma "over" on your first ever thread pick. I told you Landry Jones was a stiff. 13 pts!

Welcome to the big leagues, kid.

[lesterdymond]

You r ice cold. Ok st and over. Sorry Serbone but you are moosh. I started my own thread .... I suggested you trail me for winners you desperately need.

That was a quick change of heart after the essay you wrote last week. Get the fukk out of this thread you bi polar prik

[Serbone]

16-15 ( 1.4)*

3* Mississippi - 3 1/2

I know The Big East is doing OK in the bowls, and The SEC has not fared so well (I count A&M as a Big 12 til next yr). But SEC is far, far deeper than The Big East, so two 6-6 teams, sure, but do not go by that, there is no comparison IMO in this matchup. Physical, speedy, powerful "D" oriented SEC is loaded with future NFL beef. Not so in The Big East.

LSU and Florida were big favorites (yes, I had them) and did not go all out, were in "consolation games", thought they shoulda been in BCS Championship. Same for Georgia, they played sloppy but covered. This is a small spread, both teams are deep into the rankings of their conferences.

SEC southern team Mississippi is hungry, the game is reasonably close to their campus, the word is there will be a huge, epic UM crowd, this is their first bowl game in yrs. Coach Freeze came from Ark St to the SEC, they are pumped. This is Pitts 3rd visit in a row to this bowl. They have a young coach, too, and want to win, and they have senior leadership (QB Senseri) that wants to go out a winner. And a first yr coach. Not saying they will not show up.

I think UM has better OL and DL than Pitt, a better QB (barely), LB, WR, everything except RB (Pitt has two very good ones)... but it will be tough for Pitt to run against SEC athletes, their OL has issues with pass protection and the UM DL and LB's are good. Pitt needs to run to cover today, I think they will have some problems.

UM played a superior schedule (# 19 Sagarin vs Pitt # 61), lost but covered against Bama, LSU (by 6), A&M (by 3) and are on an upward positive attitude trend IMO. I realize Pitt played ND into 3 OT's. IMO, that is not that impressive. USC (w/o QB) and Purdue played ND close, too.

Southern close to home middle of the pack SEC team, much better SOS, better OL & DL, LB, WR, QB (Wallace), etc (except for RB), vs northern middle of the pack Big East team, third yr at same boring bowl, depends on the run going against SEC "D".




(Bonus NFL pick, 5* Green Bay - 7 1/2, 20 degree night game for dome team Minnesota, Green Bay will stop the run this time, the NT will be slippery and hinder Peterson, Rogers will thrive, throw at will, Minny rush will not be as good on the slippery cold natural turf. The GB "O" is healthy as it has been in awhile. Fla St now dome boy Ponder will be helpless trying to throw outside in the cold when they get behind. His elbow is hurt, too, not sure if he will be 100%. FYI, I will not count this in my bowl thread results)

[turbozed]

Serbone, thanks for continuing to post and share your thoughts even during that bad run. I think a lot of players can learn from your disciplined approach, myself included. GL with todays play, buddy.

[Serbone]

Serbone, thanks for continuing to post and share your thoughts even during that bad run. I think a lot of players can learn from your disciplined approach, myself included. GL with todays play, buddy.

Thanks... that 0-11 streak was unbelievable.
Started 5-0, then 0-11, then 10-2, now 1-2 lately with Mississippi 3* pending. If they cover, I am slightly ahead.
A lot of the losses were games I would have bet the same way if they played next week... some of course were bad picks.
AND sure I was lucky some games, but some close losses, and the BG-Duke back to back incredible-epic-bad-beats was a goddam 10.5* negative swing.
YES, I would have bet higher rated games / stars on some of the games after the 0-11 but I would not chase: bet small & reasonable when you are even or behind.
I had a 6* but pulled back, it won as 3*, I am kicking myself, did not want to chase and blow up. Oh, well.

[Serbone]

17-15 + 1.6*

Not exactly thrilling, but above water after a disasterous run.

2 games to go, a shit bowl (what are Ark St and Kent Stae doing in the middle of these top notch finales?) and The BCS Championship.

I have a 20* Game Of The Year for the # 2 Alabama vs #1 Notre Dame game!




(Just kidding, no way 20*, what am I, one of those scam artist touts? If I was I would say I was 24-8 in the bowl season so far... $ 49.95 for the 20* BCS Championship Game!)

[Serbone]

17-15 + 1.6*

2* Kent State + 3

Motivation, again, is tough. Both teams lost their head coach but 11-2 MAC's Kent State's Coach Hazell (to Purdue) has stayed with the team for the game, and wants to drive them to their first ever bowl win, whereas at Arkansas State Malzhan is out, headed for Auburn, their lame duck DC will be interim coach for this game, though the OC who is also leaving for Auburn will stay. Sun Belt Conf champ Ark St might be a tad disappointed playing Kent, not the MAC Champ as expected, due to the unusual move resulting in NI playing in the Orange Bowl. And Ark St was here last yr.

Both teams had good years, their rankings and SOS are too close to call. 9-3 Sun Belt Conference Arkansas State has a top notch passer in QB Aplin, 3000+ yds, conference "Player of the Yr", and a good RB in Oku (1,000+ ry). Ark St lost to Oregon, Nebraska, and Western Kentucky, all earlier in the yr, then got hot. Kent State lost to SEC Kentucky (before Ky's massive injuries), and Northern Illinois in double OT of the MAC Confernce Championship. Kent is run first, has explosive RB Archer (1,300+ ry) and another good one in Durham (1,200+ ry), but a poor passing game, 162 ypg with Sr. QB Keith. So Kent is a bit one dimensional.

The MAC has won this game SU the last 3, Ark State lost this last yr. The Sun is 1-2 in bowls this yr, MAC 2-3 (BG should have covered).

Yep, I will take the strong running dog, hope they control the clock, a MAC northern team with their lame duck coach still running the show and a real goal, I think they will all rally to win their first ever bowl game.




(I got it + 4 this morning and posted it + 4, but for this post I will use 3; it went down today I just changed it above from + 4 to + 3, I have tried to keep the lines real)

[Serbone]

17-16 (1.7)*

A man of honor, I got it at + 4 but it went down to + 3 early yesterday, so I changed it and count it as a loss. Another gut wretching loss, this one by one pt loss on Kent State; goddam star RB gets hurt.

So many could have gone either way including of course some narrow wins.




Tonight, if ever a team was going to "get some calls" by the refs, it is ND. It would be good for The NCAA to get the (relatively speaking) nice squeaky clean ND guys back, and move out the SEC monopoly and Saban. My pick later.

[Serbone]

17-16 (1.7)*

5* Alabama - 10

Warm weather Southern SEC # 1 Championship team loaded with fast powerful future NFL beef vs. plodding northern cold weather "Independent" (wtf?) team. Better QB (by more than you think), better OL (by a lot), better RB's (2, and by a TON), better LB and DB's, too. Experienced, proven, better coach. SEC has won the last 6 BCS titles. Sure, ND has a better DL and probably WR's. Bama motivated, of course, to win BCS title.

Alabama has been thinking BCS title all along, ND fell into it. Fine. Sure, ND is a good team, but only about a top 7 or 8 team IMO, give or take.

I do not see ND scoring more than 14 pts. You need a pro style QB (Murray) or a true, star multiple skill QB (Manziel) to mess with Bama's "D". Golson "ain't it". And, you do not get many chances, Bama will hold the ball with its running game. Hell, one of the few teams with a good running game that they played, Pitt, ran well against ND.

The SEC is so superior, so deep, compared to what ND has played all yr, it is significant to say the least. Come on, A&M would be, what, a 6 pt fav over ND, GA & Florida 4-5, LSU & South Carolina 3 or so in this spot.

ND squeaked by so many teams, Purdue (bowl blowout loser) @ USC (bowl blowout loser) without their QB, Pitt in triple OT (bowl blowout loser), it is a miracle. Not tonight. Sure Bama lost to A&M, it was a letdown after annual game of the year vs. LSU, they were not excited and underestimated SEC newcomber A&M and Manziel. Outgained A&M. Sure some SEC favorites did poorly in bowls, huge letdown against lesser foes... this game is different.

I could go on, and many of you fear I will... Bama, blowout, 44-13. Good luck.



(I gave it a whirl. I definitely stand behind a lot of the picks that went south (Boise, BG, Duke, Rutgers, Oregon St, Kent St, several others) but made some mistakes, too. Overall, so many games with missing coaches and so many games decided by 3 or fewer points ATS and so many games decided by the last score and so many games decided by a last minute turnover... you have to ask yourself, either way, with all the squeakers (< 7 pt ATS) out of 34 bowl games, how many were REALLY smart bets?)

[CakeMan]

Serbone ... ...

I apologize for for my previous idiotic posts. Fact of the matter is that I log on throughout gameday to see your specific selections and your thought process. Win or lose. I respect the picks and thank you for the season. Good luck tonight. And I was hoping you agreed with my initial thought process and you did (BAMA blowout) and you even gave me a total - which I know you don't like!
Happy new year!

17-16 (1.7)*

5* Alabama - 10

Warm weather Southern SEC # 1 Championship team loaded with fast powerful future NFL beef vs. plodding northern cold weather "Independent" (wtf?) team. Better QB (by more than you think), better OL (by a lot), better RB's (2, and by a TON), better LB and DB's, too. Experienced, proven, better coach. SEC has won the last 6 BCS titles. ND has a better DL and probably WR's. Bama motivated, of course, to win BCS title.

Alabama has been thinking BCS title all along, ND fell into it. Fine. Sure, ND is a good team, but only about a top 7 or 8 team, give or take.

I do not seee ND scoring more than 14 pts.

The SEC is so superior, so deep, compared to what ND has played all yr, it is ridiculous. Come on, A&M would be, what, an 8 pt fav over ND, GA would be 6, Florida 6, LSU 5, South Carolina 4 or so in this spot.

ND squeaked by so many teams, Purdue (bowl blowout loser) @ USC (bowl blowout loser) without their QB, Pitt in triple OT (bowl blowout loser), sure Bama lost to A&M, letdown after LSU, they were not excited and underestimated newcomber A&M and Manziel. Outgained A&M.

I could go on, and many of you fear I will... Bama, blowout, 44-13.

[Serbone]

18-16 + 3.3*

I would like to publicly apologize for missing the exact final score of the BCS Championship (trivia: who used to say "that"?)
Well, I kept you out of trouble, at least. If you bet $ 50,000 a star, you won $ 165,000. Sure.
Well, I have some regrets (TT, Florida, a few others...).
Next yr fundamentals:

-favor early dogs, late favorites
-favor the southern and warm weather west teams when the game is in warm weather against northern cold weather team
-try to figure out who wants the game the most, who is disapointed to be there
-go against teams that lost their head coach
-SOS; teams with 40-50 better SOS in Sagarin or wherever have big advantges
-favor teams that are on their home type turf (natural or artificial) vs team that are on different turf
-favor conference vs conference, see how they are doing against each other
-favor experienced QB's vs first yr bowl especially freshman QB's
-IF it happens and there is cold weather, bet the cold weather team against a warm weather team
-favor the team closest to the game, especially if they are very close and threir opponent is coming from > 1,000 miles
-watch for key injuries and suspensions of impact players that are more important than mos think (OL, DL) not just QB and RB and WR's
-Matchups: teams that are going against a primo passing team for the first time, especially a northern team playing in a running conference against a southern or west passing team, or dominant running game
-check for matchups like healthy, dominant OL vs subpar & / or injured DL
-early and middle bowls teams that lost their last game will be hounded by coaches for 4 weeks and come out fired up
-consolation games: SEC is clearly the best; so teams that dreamed of BCS Championships miss out, are double digit favs, and do not play hard; other teams that lost conference championship games might come out flat

GOOD LUCK. Wish I could have helped a bit more...

[turbozed]

Great analysis on Bama and great thread overall. Get em next year.