Regul8er's 2012-13 Bowl Betting Thread

[Regul8er]

Haven't started a thread like this in probably over a year. Been crunching a sh!tload of numbers the past month, leading up to Bowl Season. Saved up some money, and going to be strictly betting NCAAF over the next 3 weeks. Most likely going to make a side play on each game for the same amount. Some games I will obviously like a little more then others, but going to keep the units the same, as this has gotten me into trouble in the past.

I'll be back later tonight or tomorrow with my picks for the New Mexico and Potato Bowls.

[Regul8er]

Sorry to all who checked in, and found nothing posted.
Something came up this weekend, and I couldnt get anything in.

We'll get things rolling for the Poinsettia Bowl on Thursday.

[Regul8er]

PLAY 1 - POINSETTIA BOWL, Thursday December 20th, 8pm EST


BYU Cougars (-3, -110) vs San Diego St Aztecs
Risking $138 to Win $125

A few reasons why I'm going with the Cougars tonight. They have a legitimately tough defense....and dirty against the run. Georgia Tech, who ran for the 4th most yards only mustered 117 (3.3 per carry). In fact, only 3 teams managed to record over 300 yards in total offense (Notre Dame, Oregon St and San Jose St). They were able to hold Utah St and Georgia Tech both in check, which are both ranked better offensively then the Aztecs. I feel if the Cougars can stuff the run, and put Dingwell in difficult throwing situations, we may see some forced turnovers.

Offensively, it appears both teams are very similar in many aspects. I expect this is be a grind-it-out game, and I believe this favors BYU as they are one the most efficient methodical offenses consisting of drives of over 10 plays. Plus on the whole, BYU has played against better ranked defenses this season, even though total offensive yards are very similar between the two. I'm not concerned whether Riley Nelson or James Lark plays. The team has been more efficient the last few games under Lark, partly due to the fact that there was a drop in competition. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bronco gets both in early, in order to get a good feel.

I think BYU holds an edge on the sideline as well. I consider Bronco Mendenhall to be a college mastermind. He has turned down many opportunities from top football programs. He generally has his teams well prepared for Bowl Season, as BYU is 5-2 under his helm, including some nice wins over Pac-12 opponents. Plus, BYU has won 5 straight against SDSU, who were Mountain West foes in the recent past.

My main concern is that San Diego St holds an advantage in the kicking game. BYU is only converting 53% of their FG attempts, and have not hit one longer then 35 yards. Heck, they've even missed 5 extra points! I'm hoping BYU holds SDSU in check to the point where the game doesn't lie on the foot of the kickers. Also, the Aztecs do carry some momentum into the game, winning their last 7. But on the flip side, the month layoff has a way of killing momentum.

Goodluck to everyone!

[Regul8er]

1-0-0 (+$125, +1.00 unit)

Always nice to get things started on the right foot. BYU's offense struggled, but the defense put Dingwell in some tough situations, and capitalized.

PLAY 2 - BEEF O' BRADY'S BOWL, Friday December 21st, 7:30pm EST

Ball St Cardinals (+7.5, -110) vs Central Florida Knights
Risking $137 to Win $125

Can't quite figure out why the books have CFU as 7 or 7.5 favorites here. Maybe the fact that they are playing 100 miles from campus? We saw last night that it's not always the advantage it appears to be. I'm sorry, but UCF doesn't have any quality wins this year. What's there best win.....East Carolina, SMU, FIU?? I'm not saying Ball St has been a Goliath killer, but they do own road wins at Indiana and Toledo and a 2 point loss at Kent St.

Offensively, there isn't a huge difference in these teams. Everything I hear, Ball St. QB Keith Wenning is a fighter. He injured his ankle in November vs Ohio, having surgery the next day. Pete Lembo has announced that Wenning will in fact start, which is good news. Sure he'll have some rust to shake off, but remember CFU hasn't played a competitive game in some time either. Ball St is more effecient through the air and the ground, but part of that has to be credited to competition. Looking at some numbers I've thrown together, Ball St has played on average softer defenses. With that said, Bortles and Wenning appear to be almost mirror images of each other, and RB's Edwards and Murray appear the same way.

UCF certainly gets the edge on the defensive side of the ball, but not as HUGE as it appears at first glance. Sure they give up about 7 less points, and about 80 less yards per game, but UCF has had the advantage of playing much weaker offensive teams then Ball St. The Cardinals have played 7 top 50 offensives according to my numbers, while UCF has only played 4. UCF only gives up 162 on the ground per game, but when playing comparable run offenses, those numbers increase. Ohio St ran for 256, while Tulsa ran for 209 and 290. I expect Edwards to get his, as he's averaged over 6 yards per carry.

Where Ball St holds a disticntive edge is in Special Teams. They rank top 20 in the country in FG Effciency, Punt and Kick Off Return Efficiency and Punt Efficiency. So with that said, they have the ability to flip the field, while Steven Schott has been almost NFL solid in the kicking game. He is 24-30 (80%), while connecting on 6-7 from 40-49 yards and 2-4 from 50+. That's who I want kicking on my side.

I could be off base here, but I'm relying on Wenning's competitive drive to keep Ball St in this game, and give them an opportunity to win.

[Regul8er]

PLAY 3 - NEW ORLEANS BOWL, Saturday December 22nd, 12:00pm EST

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-4.5, -110) vs East Carolina Pirates
Risking $137 to Win $125

Really diggin the Cajuns here. I mentioned in the previous post that I don't believe playing close to home is a huge deal in Bowl games. What is a big deal, is the fact that Lafayette played in this same game last year, so they know what to expect as they know the enviroment.

No really big wins stand out to me for either team. According to my numbers, Lafayette has played a slightly stronger schedule, and own a slightly better average win margin and about a 7 point better average loss margin.

Defensively, both teams are on the same page. Neither can stop the pass very well, and both are fairly decent against the run. Based on numbers, ULL does hold a small advantage defensively, which takes into account competition.

Offensively, ECU is a bit more efficient through the air, but I think Lafayette wins this game on the ground. They average about 50 yards better on the ground per game, and have played stiffer run defenses. Also important to note, ECU's numbers drop significantly when they face run defenses that match up to ULL, showing they took advantage of the bottom C-USA teams.

Finally, it appears ULL has an advantage in special teams, according to my numbers. Kicker, Brett Baer, was 17-20, which included 9 attempts over 40 yards. ECU's kicker owns a a FG percentage of 72%, but only 2-6 outside of 40. Also, I like the fact that ULL only lost by 7 at Florida (who undoubtedly took them light) which seemed to have sparked the Cajuns, as they've handled their business very well in the 3 games since.

I expect a lot of points, but ULL's ability to control on the clock on the ground is the difference here.

[Regul8er]

PLAY 4 - LAS VEGAS BOWL, Saturday December 22nd, 3:30pm EST

Washington Huskies (+5.5, -110) vs Boise St Broncos
Risking $137 to Win $125

I feel the Huskies not only have the ability to compete in Vegas, I think they can win this one. Sure you can only play what's on your schedule, but outside of BYU and Fresno (which aren't exceptional wins), Boise hasn't done anything outside of what's expected. On the other hand, Washington has played a fierce schedule. Yes, they got hammered at LSU and at Oregon, but these teams are on a much different level then Boise. Impressive wins against Stanford and Oregon St tell me they can compete.

Offensively and defensively, I don't see a huge disparity. I do have Boise being slightly more efficient in both arena, but nothing overwhelming. Plus, I think Price and Sankey are the most explosive players on the field. I can see Price finally having his breakout performance on the big stage, albeit against a tough Boise defense, which is in part due to they've played.

I would give Washington the advantage in the kicking game, and Boise the advantage in the return game. Based on my numbers, I expect this to be a very tight game.

[Regul8er]

3-1-0 (+$238, +1.90 units)

Gotten myself off to a nice little start, and will try to keep it rolling tonight.

PLAY 5- - HAWAII BOWL, Monday, December 24th, 8:00pm EST

Fresno St Bulldogs (-11, -110) vs SMU Mustangs
Risking $137 to Win $125

Sorry, no time for a writeup today. Goodluck, and Merry Christmas to everyone.

[Fins4evr72]

Very nice start. Love the detailed write-ups. I am riding the hot hand!

[Regul8er]

Sh!t my pants Christmas Eve with Fresno St, but we'll try and right the ship tonight.

3-2-0 (+$101, +0.80 units)


PLAY 6 - LITTLE CAESARS BOWL, Wednesday December 26th, 7:30pm EST

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-6, -110) vs Central Michigan Chippewas
Risking $137 to Win $125

I'm thinking Western Kentucky can handle business tonight in the Motor City. When looking closely at this game, I think the Hilltoppers dominate the ground game on both sides. Western Kentucky averages about 45 more yards offensively on the ground, but when playing similar defenses, Western Kentucky jumps about 15 yards per game, while the Chippewas drop about 35. Antonio Andrews was one the most proficient runners in the country racking up over 1,600 yards, 11 TD's and 5.8 yards per rush. Althought Tipton hasn't been a slouch, rushing for over 1,300 with 19 TD's and 6.1 yards per rush. The difference is the MAC is the worst conference stopping the run, and he totalled huge numbers against 5 of the worst 23 rush defenses in the country, while Andrews did his damage against only 2 of the worst 35. There is a huge descrpency here. Defensively, Western Kentucky gives up about 50 less yards on the ground, but again, against similar offenses, the Hilltoppers give up about 40 fewer yards, while Central Mich gives up about 60 more.

I'm not too concerned with the fact that the Hilltoppers have thrown for more yardage with Radcliffe. Kawaun Jakes hasn't been asked to air it out quite as much this season, but accordingly to different ratings systems, actually owns a better QB rating. I may give the Chippewas a slight edge offensively in the air, while the Hilltoppers have the slight edge in stopping the pass defensively.

Both teams are somewhat similar in the special teams department, but the Hilltoppers own a slight advantage in just about every category.

Hoping to get things back on track tonight. Goodluck everyone.

[Regul8er]

Need to turn this thing around soon. With only 33 Bowl Games on my slate, I cant afford big losing steaks to make this profitable.

3-3-0 (-$36, -0.30 units)


PLAY 7 - MILITARY BOWL, Thursday December 27th, 3:00pm EST

Bowling Green Falcons (+7.5, -110) vs San Jose St Spartans
Risking $137 to Win $125


I might have been leaning San Jose St earlier in the week, but I think the snow and cold weather hurts the passing game more then the rushing game. BG has one of the most stout defenses in the country, and I think the snow works to their advantage here.


PLAY 8 - BELK BOWL, Thursday December 27th, 6:30pm EST

Cincinnati Bearcats (-9, -110) vs Duke Blue Devils
Risking $137 to Win $125


Just don't see Duke being able to keep Munchie in check here and the UC run game. Duke has really faltered as of late, and haven't really competed with anyone of Cincinnati's level. If Duke can't find a run game, which they've struggled with all year, and force Duke to air in out 50+ times, then UC will capitalize and find a few timely picks. I like Cincy to win here by 14+.

[sportsguy04]

Need to turn this thing around soon. With only 33 Bowl Games on my slate, I cant afford big losing steaks to make this profitable.

3-3-0 (-$36, -0.30 units)


PLAY 7 - MILITARY BOWL, Thursday December 27th, 3:00pm EST

Bowling Green Falcons (+7.5, -110) vs San Jose St Spartans
Risking $137 to Win $125


I might have been leaning San Jose St earlier in the week, but I think the snow and cold weather hurts the passing game more then the rushing game. BG has one of the most stout defenses in the country, and I think the snow works to their advantage here.


PLAY 8 - BELK BOWL, Thursday December 27th, 6:30pm EST

Cincinnati Bearcats (-9, -110) vs Duke Blue Devils
Risking $137 to Win $125


Just don't see Duke being able to keep Munchie in check here and the UC run game. Duke has really faltered as of late, and haven't really competed with anyone of Cincinnati's level. If Duke can't find a run game, which they've struggled with all year, and force Duke to air in out 50+ times, then UC will capitalize and find a few timely picks. I like Cincy to win here by 14+.

Keep Munchie in check? Did I miss sonething? Kay has been the starter for a while now.

[Regul8er]

PLAY 9 - HOLIDAY BOWL, Thursday December 27th, 9:45pm EST

Baylor Bears (+3, -110) vs UCLA Bruins
Risking $137 to Win $125


sportsguy...funny thing is I live in Cincinnati. Not sure why I mentioned Munchie. haha
No time for a writeup on Baylor. Too much offense though in my opinion here.

[sportsguy04]

PLAY 9 - HOLIDAY BOWL, Thursday December 27th, 9:45pm EST

Baylor Bears (+3, -110) vs UCLA Bruins
Risking $137 to Win $125


sportsguy...funny thing is I live in Cincinnati. Not sure why I mentioned Munchie. haha
No time for a writeup on Baylor. Too much offense though in my opinion here.

It's all good. I agree cincy routes them by 14+.

[Regul8er]

Very unlucky with Bowling Green, very lucky with Cincinnati.....but I guess they even themselves out. Baylor took care of business, to get me back on the right side.

5-4-0 (+$77, +0.60 units)


PLAY 10 - INDEPEDENCE BOWL, Friday December 28th, 2:00pm EST

Ohio Bobcats (+7, -105) vs Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
Risking $131 to Win $125



PLAY 11 - RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL, Friday December 28th, 5:30pm EST

Virginia Tech Hokies (-1, -110) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Risking $137 to Win $125

[Regul8er]

PLAY 12 - TEXAS BOWL, Friday December 28th, 9:00pm EST

Minnesota Golden Gophers (+13, -110) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Risking $137 to Win $125

[Regul8er]

Really got er goin today. 3-0, definately the kind of day we all hope for. Hopefully we can keep the momentum rolling tomorrow.

8-4-0 (+$402, +3.60 units)


PLAY 13 - ARMED FORCES BOWL, Saturday December 29th, 11:45am EST

Rice Owls (+2, -110) vs Air Force Falcons
Risking $137 to Win $125



PLAY 14 - PINSTRIPE BOWL, Friday December 28th, 3:15pm EST

Syracuse Orange (+3.5, -110) vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Risking $137 to Win $125


PLAY 15 - FIGHT HUNGER BOWL, Friday December 28th, 4:00pm EST

Arizona State Sun Devils (-14, -110) vs Navy Midshipmen
Risking $137 to Win $125

[Regul8er]

PLAY 16 - ALAMO BOWL, Friday December 29th, 9:45pm EST

Oregon State Beavers (-3, -120) vs Texas Longhorns

Risking $150 to Win $125

[Regul8er]

PLAY 17 - BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL, Friday December 29th, 10:15pm EST

Michigan State Spartans (ML, +105) vs TCU Horned Frogs

Risking $119 to Win $125

[Regul8er]

12-5-0 (+$802, +6.45 units) 70.6%

I notice I've been getting a lot of views....just hope some fellow SBR citizens are taking advantage of my hot streak.

PLAY 18 - MUSIC CITY BOWL, Monday December 31st, 12:00pm EST

NC State Wolfpack (+7.5, -110) vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Risking $137 to Win $125


PLAY 19 - SUN BOWL, Monday December 31st, 2:00pm EST

USC Trojans (-7, -110) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Risking $137 to Win $125

[Regul8er]

PLAY 20 - LIBERTY BOWL, Monday December 31st, 3:30pm EST

Iowa St Cyclones (-1, -110) vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Risking $137 to Win $125

[GatorFan]

12-5-0 (+$802, +6.45 units) 70.6%

I notice I've been getting a lot of views....just hope some fellow SBR citizens are taking advantage of my hot streak.

PLAY 18 - MUSIC CITY BOWL, Monday December 31st, 12:00pm EST

NC State Wolfpack (+7.5, -110) vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Risking $137 to Win $125


PLAY 19 - SUN BOWL, Monday December 31st, 2:00pm EST

USC Trojans (-7, -110) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Risking $137 to Win $125

Great work 8er ! you are on fire. I was leaning on the Vandy but have not pulled the trigger. it's interesting to see you on the NC St. what make you put your $ on NC st ?

[tmo25]

Just saw your thread 8er and kicking myself to see we our on opposite sides in Music City and Sun Bowls. I have Vandy at -6.5... so lets get that middle!!! 27-20 Vandy

[Regul8er]

PLAY 20 - CHICK FIL-A BOWL, Monday December 31st, 7:30pm EST

LSU Tigers (-5, -105) vs Clemson Tigers
Risking $131 to Win $125

[Regul8er]

Yikes....an 0-4 day on Monday.

Sorry I wasn't able to get back on here New Years Day.......was unfortunately out of commission.
Turned the tide for a 4-1 day, but not even going to add it my record, as it wasn't documented. Too bad Wisconsin couldnt hang on a little longer!