Machine Choice Saturday: Starting with UCF +1 and will post others

[Machine Choice]

UCF/Tulsa

UCF more balanced on offense and have the better QB (big Bortles, 66% complete). Tulsa QB turnover prone in tight situations and going up against best pass defense he's seen since Fresno State (threw 3 INTs that day). UCF in revenge spot and playing for HF advantage in C-USA title game.

3rd down make percentage:
UCF 49%
Tulsa 37%

UCF's RB Latavius Murray is averaging 6.8 ypc and will play on Sundays.

If this game is decided between the uprights, advantage UCF. Their kicker has hit 4 of 5 over 30 yards, Tulsa's has hit 4 of 8.

If I lose this game it will be because: Tulsa playing last home game with a field full of seniors. Tulsa wants to amend for C-USA title shot loss last year vs Houston. Tulsa loves to pound the rock and UCF has a weak rush defense.

X-factor: whenever UCF's ground attack has been limited by an opponent (could happen today), Bortles has stepped up and thrown for big yardage (S. Miss / ECU).

Predicted Score:
UCF 29
Tulsa 27

[Machine Choice]

UCF/Tulsa X-Factor #2: both these teams played Marshall on the road.

UCF 54
Marshall 17

Tulsa 45
Marshall 38
(*Marshall threw for 298 yards)

[MikeyD323]

Nice write up

[mdfizzle]

Machine could you give me leans for later games... have an office pool I'd like to tail

[Ron29301]

Lets get it Machine. Like the pick.

[SportNut]

Love it

[SoonerC]

Tulsa does not lose at home, very rarely. UCF is a good team but if you are taking them +1 thinking they barely eak out a win, on the road nonetheless, I would think there are better bets out there.

[bane]

My capper likes this game but I've pretty much stopped following him. Played UCF last week and they couldn't cover against UTEP. I teased the hell outta them so it was still money. UCF just makes me nervous. Should be a great game if both teams play to their potential. Wish I'd be home to watch it.

[illriseupxnhx]

god damn you picked a nightmare this week...these teams are EXACTLY alike...im with you though, after reading some local tulsa news articles it seems as though tulsa HC blankenship almost foolishly admires ucf to the point of intimidation...i think quincy may break one for the knights and Bortles rushes for another to win in a squeaker...plus abouth 6 years ago a bunch of the ucf squad smeared tostitos nacho cheese dip on my apartment walls and ever since then ive respected the shit out of them. go get em douche bags

[SportNut]

like South Bama 1h later.

[Machine Choice]

Arkansas St / Troy

Looks like a game I lost two nights ago (UVA and UNC). Troy comes in with some impressive yardage in their last two games and a 2-0 ATS streak (like UVA did), but overall they are a flaky and mistake-prone team (10 INTs) and now going up against a powerhouse offense that rarely makes mistakes. Arkansas State can lock down the run once Troy hits the red zone.

Ark St -3 (hook buy)