Week 12 BtB Model Plays.....(16-6-1 last two weeks)

turbozed · 11-13-12, 03:41 AM

Sjsu is a good team this year, but I'm thinking BYU is an order of magnitude better. Was expecting to see them at least +7.

BlitzTheBooks · 11-13-12, 03:52 AM

Agreed. Gut says no go, but going with my setup has paid off. My 'gut' talked me out of a few plays that I thought were no-brainer losses - and they won haha.

Either way, just posting up what it produces

One thing that does make me feel better: BYU is looking like a HEAVY public play, yet the line is dropping.

BlitzTheBooks · 11-14-12, 04:04 AM

Pulling the trigger on Buffalo -10.0. Their weakness is against the run, which MASS doesn't possess in the slightest (they've topped 100 yards rushing as a team 4 times). MASS only hope is the pass, but BUF has good pass D. They've held 5 opponents to under 200 yards passing, and haven't allowed anyone to top 275 this year. Pass happy Georgia and Miami (OH) only managed 258 and 242 respectively. He!!, N.Illinois barely topped 240. That win last week by MASS was a fluke (4 TO's by Akron) and they'll come crashing back down to reality

*This is the same as the TT play. It's some model, some judgement but it's close enough I'll go ahead and call it a go.

Also snagging UCLA +4.0 tomorrow, and Kent State & Troy if they're at +3.5.

Ohio State will be a play but I'm waiting to get them at +3.5 and possibly buy the half point to +4.0. If not, +3.0 to +3.5 will do. Same with Kent State (currently +2.5, like to see at LEAST +3.0). I'm itching to take Notre Dame. Since they're stuck behind K.State and Oregon, I'm wondering it they'll go for show points and blow Wake out of the water (which they can easily do if they so choose).

LOCKED AND LOADED
DOGS
Virginia +4.0
San Jose State +4.0
Rice +4.0
UCLA +4.0
Texas Tech +11.0*

FAVS
Ball State -4.0
Buffalo -10.0*

* = Model/judgement call. Close enough it's a go personally

WAITING (+3.5 or <)
Ohio State
Kent State
Troy

BlitzTheBooks · 11-14-12, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by BlitzTheBooks

LOCKED AND LOADED
DOGS
Virginia +4.0
San Jose State +4.0
Rice +4.0
UCLA +4.0
Texas Tech +11.0*

FAVS
Ball State -4.0
Buffalo -10.0*

* = Model/judgement call. Close enough it's a go personally

WAITING (+3.5 or <)
Ohio State
Kent State
Troy

1-0 start to the week

BlitzTheBooks · 11-17-12, 11:25 AM

DOGS
Virginia +4.0
San Jose State +4.0
Rice +4.0
Troy +4.0
UCLA +4.0
Texas Tech +11.0*

FAVS
Ball State -4.0
Buffalo -10.0*

* = Model/judgement call. Close enough it's a go personally.

MODEL PLAYS I DIDN'T CATCH
Ohio State +3.0 or ^
Kent State +3.0 or ^
Kansas State -10.0

1-1 start to the week. Virginia was solidly in that game until getting stuffed on 4th and goal from the 1 (THE ONE

).

BlitzTheBooks · 11-17-12, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by BlitzTheBooks

DOGS
Virginia +4.0
San Jose State +4.0
Rice +4.0
Troy +4.0
UCLA +4.0
Texas Tech +11.0*

FAVS
Ball State -4.0
Buffalo -10.0*

* = Model/judgement call. Close enough it's a go personally.

MODEL PLAYS I DIDN'T CATCH
Ohio State +3.0 or ^
Kent State +3.0 or ^
Kansas State -10.0

5-3-1 so far this week going into the final two tonight. Looks like my original 'looking' lines would have panned out well with ND -24, Miss St -6 and Miami -6.

BlitzTheBooks · 11-18-12, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by BlitzTheBooks

DOGS
Virginia +4.0
San Jose State +4.0
Rice +4.0
Troy +4.0
UCLA +4.0
Texas Tech +11.0*

FAVS
Ball State -4.0
Buffalo -10.0*

* = Model/judgement call. Close enough it's a go personally.

MODEL PLAYS I DIDN'T CATCH
Ohio State +3.0 or ^
Kent State +3.0 or ^
Kansas State -10.0

1-1 on the judgement calls this week. 6-4-1 overall. Still positive $$$. 23-10-1 last 3 weeks.