I pick my spots---- loading up on Stanford this week

TheBetBuysDanK · 11-12-12, 01:43 PM

I have been on Oregon all year. BUT...21.5 is a lot. If it climbs up near 24, thats a big cushion.

The BIG concern with going huge on this play is this: If Oregon can manage to get up multiple scores early, it will force stanford to abandon the run heavy, ball control game plan. That is when games against the ducks can get ugly. As we saw against CAL, when the game was within reach, Cal managed to do a great job keeping the oregon offense off the field. Late game when they got down and were forced to play catch up, the ducks began to steam roll. The same thing can happen here. When you have an offense as potent as Oregon, 3 scores is never out of the question.

In my early leans, I like this play. But I would urge caution in going BIG on it.

GWOZOZO · 11-12-12, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by SamDiamond

Absolutely love the Cardinal here.

I'm taking the 21.5 and will buy more if it gets close to 24.

Stanford is physical, and Cal had success being "Stanford-lite" last weekend.

I expect Stanford to run Taylor 35 times, trying to shorten this game.

Making it more interesting-- Oregon is down 5 DL, and a starting safety. Which can't be good news when you are trying to stop Stanford from running the football.

Obviously, Oregon will score. I just don't think their banged up defense will allow them to cover more than 3 scores.

We have the same train thought with respect to how we approach this game. Stanford is just not the type of team that will get blown out, even if it's Oregon. Stanford's D-line is a mean bunch--very strong and long--they will cause some problems. Their toughness both on Defense and offense will keep them in this game. They might run it a bunch.
And they will face the same type of QB that they saw in ND's Golson, and for the most part, Golson was on lockdown. They even knocked him out of the game. So I have to see this 21-plus defeat to believe it.

GWOZOZO · 11-12-12, 02:03 PM

I would bet this play on Stanford's defense strenght alone. Remember, as good and potent, and quick scoring Oregon is, they actually pass to set up the run. Their running game is actually their strenght on offense, at both the QB and RB positions. Arizona was the only team that had much success running the ball against Stanford. We don't want it to turn into a track meet like the Arizona game. That's the only thing that makes me apprehensive about this play. I will hold off and see which way the line leans. But this looks very tempting

Retrospect · 11-12-12, 09:46 PM

If Oregon covered this spread they should rank #1
Oregon is my #1 favor team and going against them is tough but I'm thinking about it.

bane · 11-12-12, 09:54 PM

I'd be on Oregon easily if their defense was healthy. Otherwise, may be a no-play for me.

Bdolan33 · 11-12-12, 09:58 PM

This is one of the most insane lines ive seen all year

Urbanwildlife · 11-12-12, 10:18 PM

Remember how tough it is to play on the home field of Oregon, and then this being such a big game is going to make the crowd and atmosphere that much more crazy.

TR35 · 11-13-12, 12:55 AM

Cal had success? Oregon dropped 60 on them!

Define success?

J_smiff · 11-13-12, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by TR35

Cal had success? Oregon dropped 60 on them!

Define success?

You clearly didn't watch the game.

21.5 is a ton of points, but, it's Oregon. Tread lightly guys...

BlitzTheBooks · 11-13-12, 03:21 AM

Almost all of my numbers point to a Stanford cover. No-play for me personally though but BOL

aleiverson02 · 11-13-12, 03:31 AM

Born and raised in Eugene, been watching Duck football since I can remember, never miss any games and have seen every second of every game this year. This line is enormous, for Oregons banged up secondary( John Boyett All American, Avery Patterson stepped in balled now ACL) and defensive line. Oh and don't forget about our D Coordinator Nick Allioti, he is god awful I have been waiting for him to get booted for a while now. Anyways..
Yes the game is at home, yes we have game day coming, yes we know if we win out we go to the Championship, key word their is WIN OUT, we no longer need to blow out teams. Btw to who ever said Stanford would not be blown out, is wrong they got destroyed last year at Stanford against most people think a better Stanford team(A. luck) and worse Oregon team (Darron Thomas at QB) This game will be a win by UO, but by more then 21? I don't think so. I'd say 13-18 points ( due to Oregons 2pt conversions and Stanford kicking FGS) everyone knows Chip Kellys balls doesn;t allow him to kick FGs as they scrape on the turf.
I most likely won;t play this game only because as a loyal duck fan i will never bet against my squad and I don't think they will cover. I can also see them moving this line up as well to 24 don't bite on UO to cover, ML for sure tho maybe in a Parlay.

SamDiamond · 11-17-12, 11:13 PM

Fookin A.

That's right. I'm bumping my own sheeite, because I won a lot of money-- and that's a good feeling.

good_money · 11-17-12, 11:36 PM

nice win

No coincidences · 11-17-12, 11:37 PM

Nice call SD!

jflightwright · 11-18-12, 12:11 AM

Great Hit Sam! you put anything on the moneyline as well?

SamDiamond · 11-18-12, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by jflightwright

Great Hit Sam! you put anything on the moneyline as well?

No moneyline play. I'm not that smart.

Thanks guys

SamDiamond · 11-18-12, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by SamDiamond

Absolutely love the Cardinal here.

I'm taking the 21.5 and will buy more if it gets close to 24.

Stanford is physical, and Cal had success being "Stanford-lite" last weekend.

I expect Stanford to run Taylor 35 times, trying to shorten this game.

Making it more interesting-- Oregon is down 5 DL, and a starting safety. Which can't be good news when you are trying to stop Stanford from running the football.

Obviously, Oregon will score. I just don't think their banged up defense will allow them to cover more than 3 scores.

I was wrong, Stanford didn't run Taylor 35 times, it was 33.

And he went for 161 yards.

Sidenote. While I did win a lot of money on this game. I gave some back on USC and Missouri. Lesson learned. If I ever back a Lane Kiffin coached team again, I need an internet punch in the face.