Leans for Saturday 11/22/08

icemantbi · 11-17-08, 03:44 PM

Hey Cocknocker, nice to see you here! I remember you from the other forum, you had a nice run in NBA last year with those "PC" plays.

BOL to you this weekend.

showtime2000 · 11-17-08, 04:09 PM

Hey Ck, how about these trends to back up Mississippi,

Miss are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Louisiana State.
Miss are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings head to head.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings head to head.
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings head to head.

Now those are some pretty strong trends!

cocknocker · 11-17-08, 07:47 PM

icemantbi,

I have daily threads in basketball, so come on over to those threads when you get a chance. Looks like you still have the same lady friend. Man she is hot!

maddogmadden86 · 11-17-08, 10:30 PM

hey ck i'm no trying to start anything with you you know your my boy but is the girl in your avitar your wife stylistic?

pags11 · 11-18-08, 02:53 AM

GL cn...

cocknocker · 11-18-08, 04:33 PM

maddog, yes that is the #1 Girl of wagering, and my missus!

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 12:29 PM

Mid week update: I have a few mixed results with respect to the plays so far:

Mississippi line has gone dwon from +5 to +4 with 60% of bettors on Ole Miss, which means that the line is doing what it is supposed to do.

Stanford line is stiff although i did see it go up to +9.5 on some books. The linemaker has gotten parity among bettors on that one as 46% are on Stanford, and 54% on Cal. i don't like that so much, but we'll see what happens between here and Saturday.

Ohio is still a 2.5 underdog despite 77% of bettors on the side of Akron. Now that I do like.

BIG GAMES/RIVALRY GAMES

I am very much liking Oklahoma -7 against the Texas Tech ballclub. They are a minority among bettors (73% to 27%) and they are at home with revenge against the Red Raiders. This is a bonafide power play if i ever saw one.

Nevada despite 95% of the public money being on Boise State are still a 6 point underdog deep into the week. I actually think that they are a good matcup for Boise, especially since they are at home. This too is a power play.

Colorado State has 97% of bettors on their side, yet they maintain only a 2.5 spread over Wyoming, a tem with a pretty darn good defense. Colorado State is only 1-4 away, though, and i can't see them being favored in any road game, especially with Wyoming playing them with revenge. The last time that the Rams stepped onto the Cowboys' soil, they were blown out 24-0.

South Florida is doing it's usual late season collapse, but when Connecticut comes calling they will be in a foul mood trying to avenge the 22-15 defeat to the Huskies last year. Bettors seem to think that there will be a repeat performance backing the Huskies 87% to the Bulls 13%. And that sounds fine, except the line has South Florida favored by 3 still, with only a half point drop on the line. Of course if i take this game, I will buy the Bulls down to -2.5, and ply it that way to get off of the key number(3).

Penn State-14.5 This game is a PC Play and it features the Nitany Lions playing for th Championship at home against an up and down team in Michigan State. the public is all over Michigan State, with a 92%-8% side number, yet the number has stayed at 14. I say that Penn State comes out and blows them off.

My official picks so far

Penn State-14 PC Pick
Oklahoma -6.5
Mississippi+4
Houston-17

Rixsaw · 11-19-08, 12:58 PM

Having seen 3 Ohio games, I would not put money on them. I'm leaning Akron but I haven't done the breakdown to make a pick.

Cal is plays pretty good at home; much like Zona. I'll stay away because of potential back door.

Love OleMiss here. They play solid defense at home and on the road. LSU team appear to have thrown in the towel. The have been demoralized by some tough losses. If LSU win, it would not be more than a field goal. I would put a small donation on ML.

BOL this week.

cocknocker · 11-20-08, 01:00 AM

Rixsaw, don't trip, I don't like it enough to make it an official play. Matter of fact, i have rubbed Stanford off of my playbook, and I am concentrating on more solid teams to play for my money as you can see.

showtime2000 · 11-22-08, 08:37 AM

Alright CK, today's the day! Loving your picks so far. Here's a game that may be worth a look,

Tennessee@Vanderbilt

Line opens up at -3.5, immediately goes to -3 and sitting at -3 the whole time with high percentage on Vandy. AT the moment 82% on Vandy. Same movement with the O/U. Opens at 37.5 and this morning shifts to 37.
Everyone is counting Ten out saying a meanigless game for them, nothing to play for. Still suspect on Ten cause they are not good atall.
The Under seems like the play here,
Tenn. offense / defense #116 / #7
Average score on offense last 3 games 7 points

Vandy offense / defense #117 / #37
Average score on offense last 3 games 17 points

Ten last 9 games have all gone under.

What are your thoughts on the Under?

mmaddness08 · 11-22-08, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

With fresh lines in hand, i have a few games which i will be keeping my eye on during this week.

Mississippi+5

LSU is having major offensive issues, and Mississippi is not. Ole Miss gives up less points per game than LSU too. I will gladly take he 5 points in this matchup

Stanford+9

Cal is overrated, and the Cardinal will expose it. No way are the Bears supposed to be laying this many points in a rivalry this big.

I almost forgot:

Ohio+2.5

Akron went to overtime the previous week and they are now favored on the road the following weekend. This is one of my favorite situations in college football betting. I am all over Ohio in this one.

That Ohio Play is going to be a great play. Sharp money came down on Ohio and also we got less then 30% of the public money going on them and I'm telling you the MAC doesn't get that public action. That 2.5 number been not moving due to that sharp money. Good Luck everyone.

mmaddness08 · 11-22-08, 09:05 AM

I'm with you CK money down on Ohio and Miss, but I'm going to pass on Standford. You got any thoughts on Nevada at home getting a TD against Boise St. And also, I was thinking Tulsa may bounce back with vengenace today, or you think they still got the hangover from the pounding they took from Houston. If anything that game could also go over.

showtime2000 · 11-22-08, 09:07 AM

Hey madness, to add, home team in akron/ohio is 9-3ats last 10games...

mmaddness08 · 11-22-08, 09:08 AM

Nice trend showtime, I kind of smell upset with Nevada against Boise St you can get +7.5...anyone got any support on that one. Boise is not on the Blue field today..

mmaddness08 · 11-22-08, 09:31 AM

Ohio I know guy at Golden Nugget was mentioning the Sharp money this week from some heavies, and a guy I know in Ohio area plays lot of MAC likes them, he also dropped the Texans winning a road game finally against the Browns.

I'm playing today:

Ohio +2.5
Mississippi + 6
Nevada +7
Tulsa -28 - Lean
Tx Tech/Okl over 76 - Lean

Soccer plays
Liverpool on Asian handicap
Man City/Arsenal over 2.5
Villareal

Good Luck all

mmaddness08 · 11-22-08, 09:37 AM

Actually I'm buying 1/2 pt.

Make that Nevada +7.5, buy that hook
Buying a few points on Miss to get it to 6

Dana4U · 11-22-08, 10:12 AM

I ended up taking Miss with points as well as ML.

cocknocker · 11-22-08, 12:19 PM

Okay CK Mafia

I am going with these as my final plays:

Wake Forest-2.5
Penn State-16
Penn State-9 1st half
Oklahoma-6.5 (buying the hook)
Arizona-2.5 (buying the hook)

icsky3 · 11-22-08, 12:42 PM

Be careful with Ohio friends.... I'm taking Akron Zip -2.5... GL

showtime2000 · 11-22-08, 12:56 PM

Ok so now we have Boston College as the fav.... -1....59% on BC..

iginlafire · 11-22-08, 04:43 PM

Just want to give you a shout out CK- I have been following your posts in the NBA thread for a while, and was thinking about playing Penn St. here. When I saw you were leaning that way, I decided to play both first half -9 and -15.5 pretty big (for an amateur like me

), and the Lions are well on their way with this first half showing.

Nice! Props to you sir.