Week 11.....(6-3) with the model last week, ready to go again

[BlitzTheBooks]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1985072-week-10-dog-plays-fav-two-thrown.html

Still beating myself up for deciding against two games that were wins. Oh well. Just b/c it did well the last few weeks doesn't mean it will this one.....so chime in:

Locked and Loaded
DOGS
Miami (FL) +1.0 (MIA ML would be a good play here as well)

FAVS
Notre Dame -18.5
Kent State -6.0


Looking like plays
Oregon State +5.0
Memphis +1.5
Utah +2.0
Buffalo +3.0
Pittsburgh -3.0 (sitting at 3.5, no play with that hook still there)
Oklahoma State -7
South Carolina -13.5 (would buy the 1/2 point off 14)



Non-Model, personal plays I'm looking at:
Arkansas State -7.0

Teaser (for fun): San Jose State, BYU, Clemson, Arizona (last weeks N.Illinois, SJSU, Fresno St was a winner)

[zola]

Tailing Ark St.

Easy $$

[BlitzTheBooks]

Locked in Memphis +1 today. Have a feeling that will slide to a PK or even MEM -1 before kickoff.

So far:
DOGS
Miami (FL) +1.0 (MIA ML would be a good play here as well)
Memphis +1.0 (MEM ML would be a good play here as well)

FAVS
Notre Dame -18.5
Kent State -6.0

[BlitzTheBooks]

Also grabbing Oregon State tonight +4.5 (or +4.0 if that's all I can find) before it drops any further.


DOGS
Miami (FL) +1.0 (MIA ML would be a good play here as well)
Memphis +1.0 (MEM ML would be a good play here as well)
Oregon State +4.5 (or +4.0)


FAVS
Notre Dame -18.5
Kent State -6.0

Still looking
Buffalo +3.0
South Carolina -13.0
Oklahoma State -8.5 (waited to late, missed -7)
Pittsburgh -3.0 (like to get -2.5)
Utah -2.0

Non-Model Plays
ML Parlay: Florida State and Arkansas State (originally wanted Ark St -7.0, book had it -7.5 - no thanks on that hook)

Teaser for Fun
Mega Teaser (7-Point): Clemson, San Jose State, BYU, Arizona

[BlitzTheBooks]

Had Pitt as a little more than a TD favorite tonight, but feel the ML is a better play here. UConn's D is legit and that ND loss might bring them out a touch flat. BOL.

[BlitzTheBooks]

Listening to my gut saved me some scratch on that PIT game.

Card is final for tomorrow, BOL


DOGS
Miami (FL) +1.0 (MIA ML would be a good play here as well)
Memphis +1.0 (MEM ML would be a good play here as well)
Oregon State +4.0
Arizona State +10.0
Syracuse +3.0

FAVS
Notre Dame -18.5
Kent State -6.0
SMU -14.0

[comala57]

Like the plays. GL tomorrow.

[BlitzTheBooks]

Like the plays. GL tomorrow.

Thanks Syracuse might not be a go if I can't catch it at +3 though. The Wynn is sitting +2.5, so early morning trip to check it out (FML).

[BlitzTheBooks]

Unreal, pushed on Oregon State and Miami. Arizona State looked like they'd get a garbage TD for the cover, INT killed that.

Winner on Syracuse and Kent State though. 2-1-2 on the day so far.

[BlitzTheBooks]

Adding a couple of personal plays (NOT model): UCF -13.0 and LA Tech -12.0 1H

[BlitzTheBooks]

Not too bad all in all.....(9-3-2) total or (11-3), depending how you want to score it for the model this week. Those two pushes were technically wins for the system but I was lazy and waited a day or so to hit the books.

MODEL PLAYS I BET (4-2-2) or (6-2)
Memphis +1.0
Kent State -6.0
Syracuse +3.0
SMU -14.0
Miami (FL) +1.0
Oregon State +4.0
Arizona State +10.0
Notre Dame -18.5


MODEL PLAYS I DIDN'T BET (5-1)
South Carolina -13.5
San Jose State -22.0
Oklahoma State -7.0
Buffalo +3.0
Pittsburgh -3.0


Blindly following it (and NOT hesitating on lines like I did - cost me two pushes with MIA and OSU): 18-6 through 2 weeks (all documented). Maybe I need to remove my gut from the equation when betting this...... God knows my 'gut' has talked me out of 6 wins in two weeks.