Week 10.....dog plays with a fav or two thrown in

[BlitzTheBooks]

Running with a model that's still a work in progress. Bored off my @$$ so figured I'd throw 'em on here. Small wagers b/c it is still being fine-tuned. Feel free to throw your $.02 in and BOL

DOG PLAYS
East Carolina +3.5
Miami (OH) +3.5
Washington +4.0
South Alabama +3.5
Miami (FL) +3.0 (no wager yet, trying to see if I can catch +3.5)
New Mexico +4.5 (no wager yet, line is trending in my favor here; Possibly get 5 or 6 later this week)

FAV PLAYS
San Jose State -19.0
NC State -10.0
Kansas State -9.0

Northern Illinois -35 was a close play, but with their next game being against Toledo I could see a possible late cover (though it's hard to imagine with how bad MASS is). First half play might be an option.

On the fence with LSU +10.0 and Oregon -7.0. Leaning away from the LSU play though. Tulsa + the points was out there, but with their QB being banged up it's doubtful.

[shocka1212]

I like Miami vs va tech to win.. If this game was in Blacksburg.. But it's not. Canes win

[esulima]

why does everyone like S Alabama ?

[RavensFan2k3]

why does everyone like S Alabama ?

idk....i like FIU

[BlitzTheBooks]

Well, Miami (FL) is looking like I won't get to make a play. Line keeps dropping, no chance at +3.5. As for S.Alabama, like I said it's a model play. Small wagers as I'm still feeling it out, tweaking, etc. but it was one of the stronger plays. Had I blindly just followed it the last two weeks, I would have gone somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-7 ATS. That's more than likely a fluke and won't hold up over an entire season (even though the back testing of two seasons showed a win % over 60) but gonna ride it out the rest of this season and see where it sits .

[BlitzTheBooks]

Miami FL was looking like a play, following the model should have taken it at +2.0 or higher but personally wouldn't have liked it at less than 3.0. Which unfortunately I didn't catch anywhere.....

[BlitzTheBooks]

Didn't cash in personally on Miami, but the model pulled out a 'W'. 1-0 to start the week. On a side note, it's highway effing robbery what the casino ATM's charge here in Vegas. At the Mirage yesterday, had found Miami +3.0 (at -120 though) decided against paying $6 or $7 to make a withdraw. Insane fee

[BlitzTheBooks]

DOG PLAYS
Miami (FL) +3.0 (W)
Washington +4.0 (W)
East Carolina +3.5
Miami (OH) +3.5
South Alabama +3.5
New Mexico +4.0 (EDITED FROM +4.5 down to +4.0)

FAV PLAYS
San Jose State -19.0
NC State -10.0
Kansas State -9.0

(2-0) start to the week

[Bigh2001]

Love the NC state play.

[BlitzTheBooks]

Love the NC state play.

Little annoyed, grabbed it at -10 at one book only to see it drop to -9.5 for an hour or so at another one. Highly doubt that 1/2 will come into play though. Pack should run away with this one.

[BlitzTheBooks]

DOG PLAYS
Miami (FL) +3.0 (W)
Washington +4.0 (W)
East Carolina +3.5 (W)
Miami (OH) +3.5 (W)
South Alabama +3.5
New Mexico +4.0 (EDITED FROM +4.5 down to +4.0)

FAV PLAYS
San Jose State -19.0
NC State -10.0 (L)
Kansas State -9.0


(4-1) so far this week. Model is holding up great

[BlitzTheBooks]

DOG PLAYS
Miami (FL) +3.0 (W)
Washington +4.0 (W)
East Carolina +3.5 (W) *strongest play*
Miami (OH) +3.5 (W)
South Alabama +3.5 (L)
New Mexico +4.0 (L)

FAV PLAYS
San Jose State -19.0 (W)
Kansas State -9.0 (W)
NC State -10.0 (L)

(6-3) for Week 10. South Alabama only missed by 4.5 points; NC State and NM - not as close.

Still banging my head against the wall - TCU +7.0 and Tulsa +8.5 were plays in the model, but I did what you're not supposed to do when using models and went with my head call a no play on them, would have been (8-3)


Either way, 67% not too bad. On to next week

[bane]

Not bad at all. Maybe I will look for your thread next week.

[BlitzTheBooks]

Not bad at all. Maybe I will look for your thread next week.

Thanks. Like I said, it's still a work in progress but it's producing extremely well (as long as I don't get in the way). I'm looking up the results to get a full tally ATS the last 3 weeks. Obviously won't tout it on here b/c I didn't post them first so can't verify. But I'll post the plays anyways just for convo sake.