troy +18 @ tennessee???

[gojetsgomoxies]

this one jumped out at me. these sunbelt teams have been very good this year against the spread.

i have always liked sunbelt against much bigger name team as they are really right in the epi-centre of football talent (talented and played against much better players already in high school) . sunbelt has had some rough years too though.

i had lost track of tennessee. i know it's been a very disappointing season and defense has been the reason. did the analysis and adj. offensive stats shows them arguably top 5 in nation.

i will check on ATS record of sunbelt but i know it's very good as road underdogs non-conference (well, they'll almost never be a favorite road non-conference)

[gojetsgomoxies]

sunbelt ATS is 32-11 away. 26-15 underdog. would love to strip out in-conference games (biases numbers much closer to 50%) but too much work. i'll see.. sorry, my 50% comment is wrong. would be true for conference overall ATS record not sub-records.

if i adjust for conference games. then underdog is 15-8, road is 22-3. both those non-conference. find it hard to believe but numbers support it. i will double check the road part.


(a few pickems that i saw and each ATS service may use different line so not sure those are zeros

[gojetsgomoxies]

OK, did the numbers by hand. looks like sunbelt is 19-5 road ATS non-conference. not the 22-3. i was combining ats standings and by hand analysis from different sources so they may grade close ATS results differently.

and non-conference road is 16-2 if you exclude ark state and FIU (10 teams total) but not sure why you would exclude them

[mrsolodolo21]

Troy QB Corey Robinson didn't look like himself last week when Troy lost @Florida Atlantic. He is coming off a concussion, and there should be some worry that he is not back to his original playing form, especially when he has to go into Knoxville and play in front of 110,000 on Saturday. I understand this is a non-conference sandwich game for Tennessee, but they are looking for somebody to take out their frustrations on. It will be a step-down in class for the Vols, it just depends on whether they are overlooking the Trojans or looking to pulverize someone, especially with their head coach receiving so much hot seat talk. Either way, tread lightly.