The toughest thing I have had to model... lately based on over/unders is...

A4K · 10-26-12, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

the ability to determine whether a favorite team like Clemson last night, Oklahoma, Oregon(multiple times), Alabama, Boise State, and Mississippi State...

How do you model the fact that these teams post 40-50 points in the first half and don't post a touchdown in the second half?

Look at the Clemson game, last night... how did it not cover the over... How did the Oregon/Arizona State game not cover the over...

I believe I have an idea how to model it but constantly working on it.

Dave
Picks are in ... any critique on the picks are appreciated.

You should look at motivational factors for teams like Oregon. Is it in their interest to run up a score with all of the starters, or rest the stars and get some experience for the younger players?

gojetsgomoxies · 10-26-12, 04:01 PM

very interesting subject....

on a very basic level, shouldn't be that hard to model intellecually. perhaps alot of work though (and things can change all of a sudden) does oregon start thinking they have to win by more points? or is chip kelly fine with the chips falling where they may (bad pun)

what is the coaches record on running up score?

rivalry game? out of conference vs. inconference. strength of opposition.

passing vs. running teams? offense vs. defense.

how potent is the weaker team's offense? (see arkansas state or arizona vs. oregon..... of course, oregon is a really weird one. their first quarter and a half vs. last two and a half quarters is perhaps unprecedented)

why doesn't oregon score much later on? are there reserves pretty mediocre? they certainly aren't usc, alabama or lsu with tons and tons of top 50 recruits..........

i am very curious as to real analysis as to why oregon doesn't score later in the game. are they making alot of first downs but not scoring much. or pretty anemic on offense (and then there are perhaps different reasons for this.... does kelly play second string or 3rd/4th string too)

anyway, kind of a laundry list contribution by me. hope you find it somewhat useful