Takes and Fakes

CrimsonTideFan · 10-26-12, 04:44 AM

I agree with you bets, good luck!

TheBetBuysDanK · 10-26-12, 08:35 AM

I'm on most of your plays with you, so BOL. welcome to the forum. one game we're opposite is on Iowa st. why you fading them this week? werent impressed with their play against OSU last week? because before that, they were playing some really solid football

SmokenSherriff · 10-26-12, 07:51 PM

Thx for welcome. I believe that the strength of Iowa st defense is ability to stop run and bend don't break defense. A pass first offense like Osu which Baylor is very similar forced them to play mostly nickel and dime removing people out the box. Taking one or two of their best defensive players off the field, "their backers". Then Osu was able to gash w run game. Baylor will do same and offensively debatably more potent than Osu to date. Iowa st can't when that scoring race with hardly anyone. Definitely not here. This alone makes Baylor a favorite by 2-3 touchdowns IMHO. On the road? Naw, will execute offense that can even overcome turnovers and Iowa st D will have no answer.

Interested to hear others thoughts. Bol

TheBetBuysDanK · 10-26-12, 11:35 PM

That sounds pretty insightful. For me, I like Iowa st @ home. They play tough D and force turnovers, which can always keep you in the game. baylor is -7 turnover margin last 3 games vs Tex, TCU, and WVU. It is just a small play for me though. BOL

SmokenSherriff · 10-29-12, 03:07 PM

Wins ATS
K state, No Illinois, Marsh/Ucf over
, W. Kentucky, N. Dame, Ok. State.

Losses ATS
Baylor, Florida, Toledo, Oregon/Col. Under, Temple, Ncst.

Total 6-6 ATS

Crazy week.
No regrets: Florida, Toledo, Nc St.

Poor play:

Iowa St. - Don't think I underestimated Iowa St. as much as I did their home field advantage. They are a different team at home. From average to above average at home. They have better players but still as a unit are overachievers and underdogs. Instead of poor talent and no buzz about the future of the team they have a lot of things going in the right direction. With Iowa down and their performance in the series against in their own world the buzz seems to be that of a team competing for championships. Their better talent seems to feed off that in a big way making them very dangerous at home. Which is neat for a traditionally struggling program. I will look to cash on others underestimating them in similar spots as I did hear.

Oregon/Cu under - Poor bet, got too cute trying to outthink the scenario. Really anticipated the first half throttling and statement coach seemed to be trying to make by shutting it all down second half. Defense and Cu being awful made me think this was gonna be a easy formula to do this again.

Pitt - Well, all I can say is that it is one of the few teams I learned I don't have a read on. My overall feel for team was that of a team that is uninspired to play to their potential and only have success of any kind in rivalries and underdog role. Never been impressed w 10 yr starter Sinseri at QB. They played well w no reason for some reason! Lol