Tuedsays Interesting line movements Ark St. v. ULL and Pick.

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  • Jago2008
    SBR MVP
    • 05-18-11
    • 3047

    #1
    Tuedsays Interesting line movements Ark St. v. ULL and Pick.
    Ok first of all, everyone kill themselves for paying attention to this game, including myself.


    I have a well earned day off, but its cloudy here in SD so no surf, and it is been quite fun watching some of the line movement on Ark. St. v. ULL.

    At first I was seeing a 40% - 60% / Over - Under with the line still moving up gradually, initially started at 61.5 now up 63 even tho majority of better were on the under. Perhaps some RLM.

    However, now the totals bettors are even to a 45-55 on the Over - Under.

    These semi-anonymous college plays generally favor the minority side, however last tuesday the majority on the 'Under' won in what perhaps was the most ridiculous attempt by refs to fix a total, calling back a late TD on an illegal "we have money on this game - TD doesn't count" motion.

    Tonight we have two teams that cumulatively average 25(ULL) and 31.3 (Ark. st.) points respectively. But ULL gets its main RB back tonight in Alonso Harris, which should contribute to a more balanced offense.

    Ark St.s QB Ryan Aplin is one of the top quarterbacks in Sun Belt history and he ranks third among all active FBS players in career yards with 10‚569, he has passed for 1‚591 yards with 11 touchdowns against only two interceptions while rushing for another 244 yards and three scores.

    Both these defenses, if you want to call them that allow generally >28PPG. And among Sun Belt teams‚ only ULM scores more than Louisiana (35.5 ppg).

    Initially my first inclination was to side with the under as this is a high total, but we have clear weather, offenses that can score and a defenses that give up many points on national television.

    Over 61.5, UL LAF ML/spread. and may God have mercy on your soul.
  • bigdaddyjames
    SBR MVP
    • 11-17-09
    • 3179

    #2
    that is going to be an under game .... Go look at the last games with those 2 teams ...
    Comment
    • Jago2008
      SBR MVP
      • 05-18-11
      • 3047

      #3
      Originally posted by bigdaddyjames
      that is going to be an under game .... Go look at the last games with those 2 teams ...
      Oh yes, trust me I did, if you just back-track some bro. Games between these two when totals were cumulatively set at 57 or higher, the games soared over. We have experienced mobile quarterbacks here, especially Ark. St. QB. certain key players returning.

      If you're on the under GL. I mean honestly this is a 1 unit play, nothing more, far too many variables in this game. If anyone is putting their mortgage on this play, probably should seek help.
      Comment
      • jjlwar
        SBR Hustler
        • 02-12-12
        • 91

        #4
        1 unit play for me, FOR SURE. Learned my lesson last tuesday betting on Cajuns to score 30, and they were -205 favs, both loseres
        Comment
        • KktdocT
          SBR Sharp
          • 01-28-11
          • 436

          #5
          GL, mate.
          Comment
          • Jago2008
            SBR MVP
            • 05-18-11
            • 3047

            #6
            The percentages are getting close to about even now.
            Comment
            • Jago2008
              SBR MVP
              • 05-18-11
              • 3047

              #7
              Originally posted by KktdocT
              GL, mate.
              Thank you. We will see.
              Comment
              • 16johnnymac
                SBR MVP
                • 10-27-10
                • 3499

                #8
                U suckass
                Comment
                • RG3ING
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-14-12
                  • 1622

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Jago2008
                  The percentages are getting close to about even now.
                  Yeah because people who are half way sharp are jumping on ark. St my buddy had 200 on ULL an loved the play an I'm laughing at him as he just called his book an made a 300 bet on ark st lmao
                  Comment
                  • Jago2008
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-18-11
                    • 3047

                    #10
                    Originally posted by RG3ING
                    Yeah because people who are half way sharp are jumping on ark. St my buddy had 200 on ULL an loved the play an I'm laughing at him as he just called his book an made a 300 bet on ark st lmao
                    Lines somewhat evening before gametime is not an uncommon occurence. Especially in this type of game.
                    Comment
                    • Jago2008
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-18-11
                      • 3047

                      #11
                      People are so divided, I love this. Its like the presidential election.
                      Comment
                      • Jago2008
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-18-11
                        • 3047

                        #12
                        Originally posted by 16johnnymac
                        U suckass
                        Dude WTF is your avatar. The Crypt keepers behatch, creepy as hell. I guess well-timed given its Halloween.
                        Comment
                        • Jago2008
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-18-11
                          • 3047

                          #13
                          Well I was on the wrong side here, but It looks I'll hit the over for an even day.
                          Comment
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