Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 12, Nov 13-15)

**Willie Bee** · 11-13-08, 10:10 AM

Buffalo Bulls +3½ cash as dogs at the Akron Zips

Game Time: 11/13/2008 07:00 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

Not exactly a marquee affair with both Buffalo and Akron sitting 5-4 on the season, but a big game nonetheless. Take the Bulls and the points on the road Thursday at the Zips.

Both Buffalo and Akron are 5-4 on the season, so it's a big game for both sides. But I believe the Bulls are the slightly superior team and in a game that figures close, getting that hook on the FG could be vital.

Buffalo has the better defense, and they're also a perfect 4-0 vs. the number on the road this season. In fact, the Bulls are now 16-5 ATS in their last 21 away games. Akron has really gotten the offense revved up of late with four consecutive games scoring 30 or more points. But they've also been very generous defensively and I believe the Buffalo edge on that side of the ball will be the determining factor here. I'll go for the road dog.

Free Pick: Buffalo +3½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-13-08, 10:11 AM

NC State Wolfpack +4 to howl vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Game Time: 11/15/2008 03:30 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

NC State has been one of the more pesky 3-6 teams, as they are on a 6-1 ATS run and are capable up putting up big numbers at home. They are a live home dog.

Both of these teams have very deceptive records, as the North Carolina State olfpack have been very competitive despite being just 3-6 straight up, while the Wake Forest Demon Deacons have actually underachieved while going 6-3.

Case in point is that NC State is currently on a 4-0 run against the spread, and they are 6-1 ATS in their seven lined games since an opening week loss at South Carolina.

The Wolfpack are coming off of a nice 27-17 outright road upset of Duke, and they are averaging a nice 24.4 points and 313.0 total yards per game at home. Comparatively, Wake Forest is averaging just 15.8 points and 280.8 total yards on the road.

Now granted, NC State has a one dimensional passing offense, but that may actually not be a negative in this case. That is because the Demon Deacons are allowing only 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, so the best way to attack this defense is by throwing the ball and making big plays.

If the Wolfpack are successful, Wake Forest has been a major disappointment offensively and we feel they would be unable to match NC State if this turns into somewhat of a shootout. In fact, the Deacons have yet to score more then 12 points in their three conference road games.

Because of this lack of offense, Wake Forest is just 4-5 ATs despite their winning record, and we are looking for them to lose outright here, although getting more than a field goal with NC State is nice insurance.

Free Pick: NC State +4 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-14-08, 11:00 AM

Duke Blue Devils +10½ ruin Clemson Tigers homecoming

Game Time: 11/15/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The season just won't end soon enough for Clemson who has gone from BCS contender to a no-bowler so quick. Take the Duke Blue Devils and the points at the Tigers.

It is homecoming in Clemson but should that really make the Tigers such a large favorite in this spot? I certainly do not think so.

After the loss against Florida St. last weekend, they have dropped four of their last five games and are likely one more loss away from going from a preseason National Championship contender to an early season exit with no bowl invite. There have been some downright huge disappointments this season and Clemson is right at the top of that list.

Duke comes into this game with an identical 4-5 record and while that is a disappointment for the Tigers, it is a huge accomplishment for the Blue Devils. They were picked by many to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division and that still may be the case, they are two wins away from bowl eligibility. Winning two of the final three games may not happen but no mater what this season was a success. The four wins have matched the win total from the previous four seasons combined.

Duke has been fantastic against the run of late as it has allowed 117.3 ypg on 3.2 ypc over its last three games. The Tigers have not been able to run the much at all this season and that has been the biggest downfall of this offense. After gaining nothing on the ground against Alabama, the running game flourished for four weeks but has since fallen off again. Clemson is averaging just 59.5 ypg over its last five games while James Davis has totaled only 151 yards rushing on 47 carries (3.2 ypc) over that stretch.

Davis, who last January reversed his decision to bolt early for the NFL, is trying to stay positive but admits it's difficult because “it seems like everything bad happened.” A team that has gone through this is not a team you want to back because it looks at though the white flag is waving and the towel has been tossed in. Clemson does have the same record as Duke but two of its wins came against The Citadel and South Carolina St., both of whom are FCS teams those wins do not count toward bowl eligibility.

Clemson has not covered a home game in its last six attempts and is just 2-9 in the last 11 games following a loss against the number. The Blue Devils have covered five of their last seven games against teams with a losing record and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games including a 2-1 ATS mark this season. Emotion plays a big part in this game and right now, Duke has a big edge in that department and don’t be surprised to see the Blue Devils officially close the door on the Clemson season.

Free Pick: Duke +10½ (-107)

**Willie Bee** · 11-14-08, 11:02 AM

Sheep turn on Wolves; Colorado St Rams +2½ vs. New Mexico Lobos

Game Time: 11/15/2008 02:00 PM -
By: Dave Malinsky | experts.covers.com

New Mexico has nothing to play for in this final game of their season while Colorado St. has a shot at a bowl bid. Back the Rams at home at home when they host the Lobos.

Back in an early-season edition of ”Verities and Balderdash,” we focused on the various elements that the 12-game schedule would bring into play, now that all teams are into the rhythm of that being the way of life. This game provides us with a classic example of how we can use one of those edges for our purposes, with a road favorite that may bring little or nothing to the table.

New Mexico will become the first team to call it a season, with the Lobos packing up all of their equipment when this one is over. It is a problem from two directions:

A team that has appeared in a bowl game for seven straight seasons certainly did not plan on the end coming in mid-November, and;

In playing 12 games in as many weeks, the Lobos are the only team at this level that did not have a bye week, and that means both physical and psychological issues for this setting.

The college football season is a long grind, and while there are often humorous references about the academic standards involved at this level, the bottom line is that most of these players do go to class. Much of the anticipated fatigue is negated by the fact that there are continually targets to shoot for – championships, winning seasons, bowl bids, and the last home game for the senior class. But what happens when those targets go away?

We see things like the listless New Mexico loss at U.N.L.V. on Saturday night, when there were still minor bowl hopes in play, and we do not expect to see anything special from Bronco Mendenhall’s team here. Not that they are capable of much anyway, which is one of the prime reasons why they will finish with their first losing record since 2000. The passing game could not deal with the loss of starting QB Donovan Porterie early in the season (they have not reached 200 air yards in a game), and that made it easy for opposing defenses to stack the line of scrimmage, rendering the offensive helpless on many occasions.

Contrast the flat Lobos with the spark that Colorado State will play with. Assuming that Utah goes 12-0 and earns the likely BCS spot that will come along with that, it means that a Mountain West bowl tie-in has been opened up, and Steve Fairchild’s Rams can qualify for that by winning here, and again at Wyoming next week. It is also the last home game for a senior class that includes starting QB Billy Farris, leading rusher Gartrell Johnson (only needs 71 yards to reach 1,000 for the season), and TE Kory Sperry, a potential NFL draft choice. They have beaten Houston and U.N.L.V. on this field, while also taking T.C.U. and Brigham Young to the final possession, creating a perfect 4-0 ATS run in which they have beaten the spread by 42.5 points. The hungrier and fresher team should not have any difficulty winning this one SU.

Free Pick: Colorado St +2½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-14-08, 11:03 AM

BYU Cougars -5½ fly past the Air Force Falcons

Game Time: 11/15/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The one-dimensional offense for Air Force should play into a BYU cover Saturday afternoon in Colorado. Lay the points on the Cougars when they meet the Falcons.

The 16th-ranked BYU Cougars (9-1) enter into this Mountain West Conference game against Air Force (8-2) in an ATS swoon, as is evident by failing to cover six straight games, thanks in part because of the hefty spreads they have been asked to cover, and also some lackluster efforts.

The Cougars have not looked as dominant as many thought they would be since taking a 32-7 beating at the hands of a pretty good TCU Horned Frogs team. There is, however, good news on the horizon for Cougar backers as they face a Fly Boys program they have owned in the recent past as is evident by winning four straight in the series by no less than 17 points.

I am betting a BYU offense that has put at least 41 points on the board in their last three games behind the arm of QB Max Hall (71 % passer accuracy, 32 TDs) to let loose with another barrage of points this week. I also expect the Mormons' inconsistent defense to finally stand tall and give coach Bronco Mendenhall a stable effort against a Falcons offense that is easy to read because of a one-way ground attack.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The SU winner in this series has covered 20 of 21 meetings.

Free Pick: BYU -5½ (-110)