College Football 11-11-08 thru 11-15-08

wal66 · 11-10-08, 10:34 AM

Have several games that have made the initial list for this week. Will not make them official till later in the week so I can track line movement.

Ole Miss -21
ECU +2.5
Air Force +4
Navy +3
Northwestern +3
Alabama -19 ( probably won't play this one regardless of action )
Ball St -17 ( already a play )

wal66 · 11-10-08, 10:40 AM

Tuesday Night 11-11-08 7:00PM

Ball St -17 @ Miami-Ohio

Miami-Ohio generally gets the best of this contest. This year is not a typical year though. Miami-Ohio is down and haven't played very well at all this season. Ball St on the other hand are playing top caliber football are undefeated and have an outside shot at becoming this years BCS Buster. I played against them last week and got burned. All the numbers indicated that Northern Illinois had enough defense to kee that game close. Numbers weren't enough and neither was Northerns defense as they got blown out 45-14. Miami-Ohios defense isn't in the same league as Northerns and Ball St is still Ball St.

Trends: Ball St is 10-3 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Ball St is 19-7 ATS in last 26 road games.
Miami-Ohio is 2-7 ATS in last 9 conference games.
Points:
Offense
Ball St 38 ppg Miami-Ohio 18 ppg.
Defense
Ball St 15 ppg Miami-Ohio 31 ppg.
Ball St average scoring 34.5 ppg on the road.
Ball St average allowing 13 ppg on the road.
Miami-Ohio average scoring 20.5 ppg at home.
Miami-Ohio average allowing 36 ppg at home.
Common Opponents:
Northern Illinois 14 @ Ball St 45
Miami-Ohio 13 @ Nothern Illinois 17
Kent St 20 @ Ball ST 41
Kent St 54 @ Miami-Ohio 21
Weather:
49 degrees and scattered showers.
Wal's Rating:
Ball St by 24.5

Play: Ball St -17** ( 2-units )

jackpot269 · 11-10-08, 11:17 AM

Wal66, Im with you on Ole Miss, ECU, & Ball ST. Im staying away from your other picks!! GL & lets cash these in !!!!!!!!!!!

riggs · 11-10-08, 11:51 AM

Plays 4 Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday

*****Ball St. -17 over Miami (OH), Miami (oh) is very over matched here. This spread should be 20-24!

**Kent St. +2.5 over Temple, Temple is not a good road team & not a very good football team. Kent St. is much better than their record would have you believe.

**Central Michigan +3 over N. Illinois, N. Illinois struggles at critical times on offense and C. Michigan has an outstanding QB. I like C. Michigan in a close one.

*****Akron -2.5 over Buffalo, Akron will slaughter Buffalo at home. This line is off (imo). Akron has been very impressive this year.

*Miami -4 over V.Tech, Not a strong play here but I can't say that I like this young offense on the road in a night game at Miami.

wal66 · 11-11-08, 05:01 PM

Wednesday November 12, 2008

Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -3

I hadn’t seen Northern Illinois play a single down until last week when they lined up against Ball St. I researched the teams prior to play but nothing in the stats would have indicated the mismatch between those two teams.
This week they take on Central Michigan. I have seen Central play when they took on Western Michigan. While Central does tend to give up a lot of points their offense has been able to make up for it.
I don’t think Northern Illinois is nearly as bad as they were made to look last week but I do feel that Central is on a mission and can get it done in this spot.

Records:
Central Michigan 7-2 ( 5-3 ATS ) 3-2 on the road
Northern Illinois 5-4 ( 5-3 ATS ) 4-0 at home
Common Opponents:
Central Michigan 24 @ Toledo 23
Toledo 7 @ Northern Illinois 38
Western Michigan 28 @ Central Michigan 38
Northern Illinois 26 @ Western Michigan 29
Weather:
Mid 40’s and rain expected.
So many things line up and say the play here is Northern Illinois. I have to go against the grain though and ride the road dog in this spot. Central has the ability to score some points so I’ll play the HUNCH here. Central Michigan 27 Northern Illinois 24

Play: Central Michigan +3* (1-unit)

minet123 · 11-11-08, 05:25 PM

Good Luck Wal with you on Kent state Temple is dreadful on the road

pags11 · 11-11-08, 06:02 PM

GL wal66...

wal66 · 11-12-08, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by minet123

Good Luck Wal with you on Kent state Temple is dreadful on the road

I appreciate it but riggs is on Kent I have no opinion on that game. If I did I would just be wrong anyways.

wal66 · 11-12-08, 07:58 AM

Always a pleasure to start the week out in the hole.

wal66 · 11-12-08, 06:08 PM

Thursday November 13, 2008
7:00PM
Buffalo @ Akron -3.5
Records:
Buffalo 5-4 (5-3 ATS) 1-3 on the road
Akron 5-4 (6-3 ATS) 1-3 at home
Trends:
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in last 10 conference games.
Akron is 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games.
Head to Head:
Akron is 8-1 straight up.
Buffalo is 5-3 ATS.
Offense:
Buffalo averages 23.5 ppg on the road.
Akron averages 27.5 ppg at home.
Defense:
Buffalo allows 28.5 ppg average on the road.
Akron allows 31 ppg average at home.
Weather:
High 40’s low 50’s chance of scattered showers.
Computer Program:
Akron -1/2 making Buffalo +3.5 a decent value.
Play:
Buffalo +3.5*

Thursday November 13, 2008
7:30 PM
Virginia Tech @ Miami -4.5
Records:
V-Tech 6-3 (3-5 ATS) 2-2 on the road
Miami 6-3 (5-3 ATS) 3-2 at home
Trends:
Under is 8-0 in V-Techs last 8 Thursday games.
V-Tech is 13-4 ATS in last 17 Thursday games.
V-Tech is 19-7 ATS in last 26 road games.
Under is 8-2 in Miami’s last 10 Thursday games.
Miami is 5-16-1 ATS in last 22 home games.
Head to Head:
V-Tech is 6-4 straight up in last 10 games against Miami.
V-Tech is 8-2 ATS in last 10 games against Miami.
Common Opponents:
V-Tech 20 FSU 30
FSU 41 Miami 39
V-Tech 20 North Carolina 17
North Carolina 28 Miami 24
Offense:
V-Tech averages 24 ppg on the road.
Miami averages 24.5 ppg at home.
** (Did not include Charleston Southern game.)
Defense:
V-Tech allows 26.5 ppg on the road.
Miami allows 23 ppg at home.
** (Did not include Charleston Southern game.)
Weather:
Mid 70’s minimum chance of scattered showers.
Computer Program:
Miami -5 no edge here.
Play:
Virginia Tech +3.5* (Hunch Play)

Thursday November 13, 2008
9:00 PM
Wyoming @ UNLV -7
Records:
Wyoming 4-6 (2-7 ATS) 1-3 on the road
UNLV 4-6 (5-4-1 ATS) 3-3 at home
Trends:
Wyoming is 1-8 ATS in last 9 road games.
Wyoming is 6-20-1 ATS in last 27 games overall.
UNLV is 8-23 ATS against teams with a losing record.
Head to Head:
5-5 straight up between these two teams.
UNLV is 4-3 ATS
Common Opponents:
Wyoming 7 TCU 54
TCU 44 UNLV 14
Air Force 23 Wyoming 3
Air Force 29 UNLV 28
Utah 40 Wyoming 7
UNLV 21 Utah 42
Offense:
Wyoming averages 5 ppg on the road.
UNLV averages 26 ppg at home.
Defense:
Wyoming allows 32 ppg on the road.
UNLV allows 34.5 ppg at home.
Weather:
Non-factor
Computer Program:
UNLV -15.5 so UNLV -7 in good value.
Play:
UNLV -7**

wal66 · 11-12-08, 11:37 PM

HOLY CRAP! Can I ever just get a simple stress free win?

1-1 for the week so far.

wal66 · 11-13-08, 01:48 PM

Have gone ahead and capped every game that came up of value according to my program. Even if it’s a lean and a no-play the work is here for you to look over.

Saturday 15, 2008
12:00
Northwestern @ Michigan -3.5

Records:
Northwestern 7-2 (4-5 ATS) 3-1 on the road.
Michigan 3-7 (2-8 ATS) 2-4 at home.
Trends:
Under is 6-2-1 ATS between the two teams.
Head to Head:
Northwestern is 6-2 ATS
Michigan is 8-2 straight up
Common Opponents:
Northwestern 24 Minnesota 17
Michigan 29 Minnesota 6
Michigan St 37 Northwestern 20
Michigan St 35 Michigan 21
Offense:
Northwestern averages 22ppg on the road.
Michigan averages 19ppg at home.
Defense:
Northwestern allows 18.5ppg on the road.
Michigan allows 24.5ppg at home.
X-FACTOR:
While Michigan did get a big win on the road last week against Minnesota it’s still too early to say they are good. This offense under Rodriguez will ultimately work in the Big 10 but they still require the proper personnel to operate it. I’m really torn on this game because I feel like Northwestern really has a chance to get a win and it could be their last for a while.
Computer Program:
Northwestern -6.5 so at +3.5 there is great value here.

Play:
Lean to Northwestern

Saturday November 15, 2008
12:00
Notre Dame -3.5 @ Navy

Records:
Notre Dame 5-4 (5-4 ATS) 1-3 on the road.
Navy 6-3 (4-4 ATS) 4-1 at home.
Trends:
Under is 9-1 ATS in Notre Dames last 10 games.
Navy is 5-11 ATS in last 16 home games.
Road team is 12-1 ATS in last 13 meeting between the two.
Common Opponents:
Pittsburgh 36 Notre Dame 33
Pittsburgh 42 Navy 21
Offense:
Notre Dame averages 16ppg on the road.
Navy averages 27.5ppg at home.
Defense:
Notre Dame allows 19ppg on the road.
Navy allows 24ppg at home.
X-FACTOR:
Notre Dame dominates this series no matter how good or bad their teams have been.
Computer Program:
Navy -4.5 so at +3.5 there is great value here.

Play:
Navy +3.5 *

Saturday November 15, 2008
12:30
Georgia -8.5 @ Auburn

Records:
Georgia 8-2 (3-5-1 ATS) 4-1 on the road.
Auburn 5-5 (1-8 ATS) 4-2 at home.
Trends:
Auburn is 0-8 ATS last 8 games.
Under is 6-2 ATS in Auburns last 8 home games.
Under is 11-4 ATS in Auburns last 15 conference games.
Head to Head:
5-5 straight up and ATS
Common Opponents:
Georgia 54 LSU 38
LSU 26 Auburn 21
Vanderbilt 14 Georgia 24
Auburn 13 Vanderbilt 14
Tennessee 14 Georgia 26
Tennessee 12 Auburn 14
Offense:
Georgia averages 33.5ppg on the road.
Auburn averages 21ppg at home.
Defense:
Georgia allows 23ppg on the road.
Auburn allows 19ppg at home.
X-FACTOR:
As bad as Auburn has been on offense Georgia has been almost as bad on defense. Georgia is the better team and they need to play this game as such. I really believe they will. Look for Georgia to take out that frustration I thought they would get out last week here.
Computer Program:
Georgia -13 so the 8.5 gives us a slight edge in value.

Play:
Georgia -8.5*

Saturday November 15, 2008
2:00
UL Monroe @ Ole’ Miss -20.5

Records:
UL Monroe 3-7 (5-4 ATS) 0-5 on the road.
Ole’ Miss 5-4 (5-3 ATS) 3-2 at home.
Trends:
Over is 8-2 in last 10 UL Monroe games against SEC
Ole’ Miss is 3-7-1 ATS against teams with losing record.
Head to Head:
Ole’ Miss 2-0 straight up 1-1 ATS
Common Opponents:
UL Monroe 27 Arkansas 28
Ole’ Miss 23 Arkansas 21
Offense:
UL Monroe averages 21.5ppg on the road.
Ole’ Miss averages 24.5ppg at home.
Defense:
UL Monroe allows 28ppg on the road.
Ole’ Miss allows 21ppg at home.
X-FACTOR:
Ole’ Miss should win this game easily enough. However with LSU on deck they could be looking to rest starters in the second half.
Computer Program:
Ole’ Miss -26.5 so at 20.5 there is value.

Play:
Lean to UL Monroe and the points. Just a hunch.

Saturday November 15, 2008
2:30
Utah St @ La Tech -14

Records:
Utah St 2-8 (5-4 ATS) 0-5 on the road.
LA Tech 5-4 (4-4 ATS) 4-0 at home.
Trends:
Under is 6-2-1 ATS in Utah St last 9 conference games.
Under is 6-2 ATS in LA Tech’s last 8 conference games.
Head to Head:
LA Tech is 4-1 ATS
LA Tech is 3-2 straight up
Common Opponents:
Utah St 14 Boise St 49
LA Tech 3 Boise St 38
Fresno St 30 Utah St 28
Fresno St 35 LA Tech 38
Hawaii 14 Utah St 30
LA Tech 14 Hawaii 24
Idaho 17 Utah St 42
Idaho 14 LA Tech 46
Offense:
Utah St averages 15.5ppg on the road.
LA Tech averages 36.5ppg at home.
Defense:
Utah St allows 47.5ppg on the road.
LA Tech allows 22ppg at home.
X-FACTOR:
Knowing what a very bad road team Utah St has proven to be I can’t understand why this line isn’t higher. LA Tech isn’t world beaters by any means but just look at the numbers to see just how badly Utah St has performed when not at home.
Computer Program:
LA Tech-6.5 so at -14 there is some value in the road dog here.

Play:
Utah St +14* ( HUNCH PLAY )

Saturday November 15, 2008
3:00
East Carolina @ Southern Mississippi -2.5

Records:
ECU 6-3 (3-6 ATS) 2-2 on the road.
Southern Miss 4-6 (5-5 ATS) 2-3 at home.
Trends:
Southern Miss is 2-6 ATS in last 8 home games.
Head to Head:
Southern Miss is 8-2 straight up and ATS in last 10 meetings.
Common Opponents:
Marshall 16 ECU 19
Marshall 34 Southern Miss 27
ECU 13 Central Florida 10
Southern Miss 17 Central Florida 10
Memphis 10 ECU 30
Southern Miss 30 Memphis 36
Offense:
ECU averages 21.5ppg on the road.
Southern Miss averages 35ppg at home.
Defense:
ECU allows 24.5ppg on the road.
Southern Miss allows 26ppg at home.
X-FACTOR:
Southern Miss dominates this series. Another key element is the team with the better record is the dog here. ECU started the season on fire with upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The hype soon caught up with them along with several injuries. While they aren’t as good as the team that won those early games they are as good as Pinkney plays. If he plays in this game they will win straight up. If he is on the bench and Kass plays then the points may not be enough here.
Computer Program:
ECU -3.5 so at +2.5 they are a very good value.

Play:
East Carolina +2.5*

I don’t do GOW< GOM or GOY but if I did this next game would certainly be one.
Saturday November 15, 2008
3:30
BYU -5.5 @ Air Force
Records:
BYU 9-1 (2-7 ATS) 3-1 on the road.
Air Force 8-2 (7-2 ATS) 3-2 at home.
Trends:
Air Force is 8-1 ATS in last 9 home games.
Air Force is 16-5 ATS in last 21 games overall.
Head to Head:
BYU is 5-4 ATS
BYU is 6-4 straight up
Common Opponents:
San Diego St 12 BYU 41
Air Force 35 San Diego St 10
BYU 45 Colorado St 42
Colorado St 17 Air Force 38
UNLV 35 BYU 42
Air Force 29 UNLV 28
New Mexico 3 BYU 21
New Mexico 10 Air Force 23
Offense:
BYU averages 28.5ppg on the road.
Air Force averages 27.5ppg at home
Defense:
BYU allows 28.5ppg on the road.
Air Force allows 22.5ppg at home.
X-Factor:
BYU can’t afford to look ahead to next weeks showdown with Utah but it’s hard to imagine that game isn’t in the back of everyone mind. Problem is I think Air Force stands a good chance of winning this game even if BYU had a bye next week. Should be an explosive contest.
Computer Program:
Air Force -1 so the +5.5 is of great value here.

Play:
Air Force*

wal66 · 11-14-08, 02:18 AM

Finally 3-0 night 4-1 on the week so far and Green numbers in the record.

wal66 · 11-17-08, 07:58 AM

Not breaking news but I sucked it up.

1-4 on the day

5-5 for the week