97% on baylor -7 vs TCU??

thedeuceisloose · 10-08-12, 08:37 AM

I'm in big on this one. 10 units.

Baylor is putting up points on everyone. They're not as good with Florence as RG3, but their system is starting to look plug-and-playish.

TCU, meanwhile, has struggled mightily ATS this year even with Pachall at QB. Unknown if he's back or not yet.

TCU may scheme well to slow BU down, but I don't think they'll score enough to stay within the #.

Good luck!

M.W. · 10-08-12, 10:27 AM

You think Pachall could return? I don't have any inside info or anything, but it never occurred to me that there was any chance he would play this weekend.

HoulihansTX · 10-08-12, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by M.W.

You think Pachall could return? I don't have any inside info or anything, but it never occurred to me that there was any chance he would play this weekend.

You do not indefinitely suspend a player, only to bring him back the next week. Pascall is dead and buried this year.

HypoHandi · 10-08-12, 03:00 PM

I wouldn't be too confident in this pick. TCU was looking like a pretty tough defensive team until Iowa State. They will likely slow Baylor down and if they play as well offensively as they did against ISU, they will give Baylor all they can handle. Baylor's zone defense is not anything to bet on.

M.W. · 10-08-12, 03:04 PM

That's what I figured, Houlihans. But I've been wrong before.

suicidekings · 10-08-12, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by cant call it

What am I missing?

It's f'ing Monday... That number means NOTHING right now.

cant call it · 10-08-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

It's f'ing Monday... That number means NOTHING right now.

preseason lines and week to week rankings mean nothing.
A line that vegas puts out for people to wager money on HAS to mean SOMETHING.

So what you are saying is, if when and if it moves say to -4 or to -10 that only the movement means something, not the initial line itself?

Not making sense, but good luck with that thought process, hope it works out for ya.

suicidekings · 10-08-12, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by cant call it

preseason lines and week to week rankings mean nothing.
A line that vegas puts out for people to wager money on HAS to mean SOMETHING.

So what you are saying is, if when and if it moves say to -4 or to -10 that only the movement means something, not the initial line itself?

Not making sense, but good luck with that thought process, hope it works out for ya.

The 97% means nothing. I thought that it was pretty obvious what I meant there...

Pachall's arrest/suspension and TCU's loss to ISU virtually guaranteed there would be Baylor buyers as soon as the line opened up. Even if you prescribe to the value of public betting % (I don't really think they have much value), looking at them on a Monday is completely worthless. So the market jumped on Baylor -7 and pushed it to -7.5. Not surprising, and it really only tells you what you should have already known.

jakeloftin2186 · 10-09-12, 12:09 AM

Baylor all day at this number tcu is slow and they are starting to come back to reality in the big 12 with a close win to Kansas and Iowa state showing them their place

HypoHandi · 10-09-12, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by jakeloftin2186

Baylor all day at this number tcu is slow and they are starting to come back to reality in the big 12 with a close win to Kansas and Iowa state showing them their place

TCU may be a lot of things. But slow ain't one of them. They are green though.

jakeloftin2186 · 10-09-12, 02:53 PM

And that's how they got burned by Iowa state

HypoHandi · 10-09-12, 03:16 PM

Yep. Their green secondary gave up two long TD passes. But I'm not too sure that TCU might not have one of the best defenses in the Big 12 which isn't saying much. Offense is going to be a problem but not against Baylor/