Steve Starkisian's gameplan tonight on offense is to try and establish the run game early to open up the play action and short/quick passes in order to take some pressure off of Price and their banged up Oline. The problem with that is I really doubt Washington can penetrate the stout front seven of Stanford and even establish a threatening running game. Stanford will apply a lot of pressure from the edges and put Price on the run throughout the game in a similar fashion as the LSU/UW game. Austin Seferian-Jenkins will pose mismatch problems for the Stanford secondary and their up tempo spread offense should be able to put up more points than USC managed. The main reason I love Stanford here is because of their physical play, strong Dline, "smarter" coaching staff and the attention Stepfan Taylor draws being in the backfield. Stanford's entire playbook is open to them simply by having such a dangerous and talented rb at their disposal which will undoubtedly be the primary focus for a Justin Wlicox led defense. Josh Nunes should be able to make plays when it matters especially with the safety blanket in Zach Ertz. I don't think Washington have the talent in personnel or coaching staff to pull off the win tonight, I see a comfortable win for Stanford but I don't trust the spread in weeknight games and I feel like I'm getting great value in -250 ML. Look for Stanford to control the clock and take the win on the road tonight with their superior coaching and physical play. GL Stanford backers!
-
-
my exact thoughts on spread vs. moneyline. espn thursday night games seem closer than they should be, especially with home underdogs.
but are you not worried that if washington can somehow hang around to cover spread then they could reasonably hang around and win?
i do agree that ML is probably much better value than ATS. this game probably has a different normal distribution than most games.
FWIW very nice weather in seattle today. terrible weather has been a washington HFA at times in the past (maybe the ancient past though)Comment -
Ofcourse there is a chance Washington can come out and take the win tonight, but I feel like I am giving my self a much better chance at ending the night with a win by taking the ML instead of trusting the spread with a weeknight road team. Especially since Washington are more than capable of penetrating Stanford's defense with their spread attack and a mobile quarterback who is capable of extending the plays.Comment -
I'm on it. I've been following your posts for the last couple weeks and you're hitting at a pretty nice clip. Thanks.Comment
