Leaning on Baylor ML

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  • CapperGuy
    SBR Sharp
    • 03-05-11
    • 492

    #1
    Leaning on Baylor ML
    I might take the Baylor Bears on the ML tonight, not sure as of yet. I saw both of ULM's games this morning and I'm convinced that they are not a very good team. Their dual threat qb may pose some problems for Baylor's defense and all the risks ULM's coach takes might hurt them in this game if they don't convert especially with their special teams issues. Baylor's defense is fast and athletic but vulnerable to choking in the secondary and allowing big plays. With that being said I like Balyor's starting QB Nick Florence, I believe their offense is pounding on all cylinders once again this year. If anything, this will either be a complete rout for Baylor if they start out fast or it may be a back and forth shootout, if that's the case I still like my chances with Baylor. I'm about to watch the Baylor games again, if I feel comfortable I'll probably unload on them for sure later on. I actually think because of the close games ULM had against two SEC teams on the road that they are being hyped, hence we get a better value on Baylor. Auburn is a team that have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball and their defense is not what people believe it to be, they had a hard time adjusting to Kolton Browning's big play capabilities in the fourth quarter and allowed big time 4th down conversions which ultimately led to two touchdowns forcing the game into overtime. Arkansas had solid control over ULM a couple weeks ago, but when Tyler Wilson went down the team collapsed as a whole. Arkansas lost that game themselves, I didn't really see anything exemplary from ULM that makes me believe they'll be able to keep pace against Baylor tonight. Arthur Briles has plenty of video to figure out the strengths and weaknesses on the ULM side and I believe he is the better coach tonight as well which plays a huge factor in my decision making. I would also like to add that the veteran defensive coordinator for Baylor, Phil Bennet, will do a great job with the personnel he has available to him in making things difficult for Kolton Browning.
  • eatdarich
    SBR High Roller
    • 08-21-12
    • 173

    #2
    Well written......I jumped on baylor at -7 yesterday....might take baylor -14 1/2 +220 on the alter. spread.....thoughts?
    Comment
    • CapperGuy
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-05-11
      • 492

      #3
      Originally posted by eatdarich
      Well written......I jumped on baylor at -7 yesterday....might take baylor -14 1/2 +280 on the alter. spread.....thoughts?
      Baylor -7 seems pretty solid! I think it has a very probability of hitting BOL! The reverse line has some value as well because Baylor will put up points, if ULM can't keep up or fall behind two scores they'll be forced to change their gameplan which may dig them deeper in the hole.
      Comment
      • eatdarich
        SBR High Roller
        • 08-21-12
        • 173

        #4
        Thanks, I just pulled the plug and went small on the reverse line.

        BOL and I enjoy your threads/comments!!!
        Comment
        • CapperGuy
          SBR Sharp
          • 03-05-11
          • 492

          #5
          Originally posted by eatdarich
          Thanks, I just pulled the plug and went small on the reverse line.

          BOL and I enjoy your threads/comments!!!
          Thanks! GL to you wager tonight. I just saw the ML and spread get steamed by a few well respected sports investors so I decided to pull the trigger to win 1K on the ML -340. I had to get it online, all the books here have them at -375 or higher. Might take them for more in a few hours, we'll see how the lines continue to shift. Lets get this!
          Comment
          • TallAzCrowe
            SBR Sharp
            • 05-02-09
            • 299

            #6
            Just jumped to -9.5 on my local, -360ML, got in at -7 couple hrs ago. Hope to see some $ in my acct after work. Lets cash in on that!!!
            Comment
            • CapperGuy
              SBR Sharp
              • 03-05-11
              • 492

              #7
              Originally posted by TallAzCrowe
              Just jumped to -9.5 on my local, -360ML, got in at -7 couple hrs ago. Hope to see some $ in my acct after work. Lets cash in on that!!!
              GL! Moneyline seems to be dropping
              Comment
              • diehardfan
                SBR High Roller
                • 09-01-08
                • 228

                #8
                People seem to be loading on ULM now. My book has gone from Baylor -9.5 to -8.5.

                ULM has played the tougher teams and are playing with confidence. It's the biggest home game for ULM in decades. I do believe Baylor is the better team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see ULM cover. I like the Baylor ML though.
                Comment
                • CapperGuy
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 03-05-11
                  • 492

                  #9
                  Yea I'm not touching the spread simply because Baylor's D is unreliable especially if they can't contain Browning so the ML is definitely a smarter play. BOL
                  Comment
                  • jbart28
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-16-11
                    • 3387

                    #10
                    Sprinkling a little on Baylor ML. BOL everyone
                    Comment
                    • nic9212
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-19-12
                      • 1536

                      #11
                      On Baylor ML BOL
                      Comment
                      • diehardfan
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 09-01-08
                        • 228

                        #12
                        BOL
                        Comment
                        • Resler
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-03-10
                          • 1417

                          #13
                          Great quality write up!!!

                          Originally posted by CapperGuy
                          I might take the Baylor Bears on the ML tonight, not sure as of yet. I saw both of ULM's games this morning and I'm convinced that they are not a very good team. Their dual threat qb may pose some problems for Baylor's defense and all the risks ULM's coach takes might hurt them in this game if they don't convert especially with their special teams issues. Baylor's defense is fast and athletic but vulnerable to choking in the secondary and allowing big plays. With that being said I like Balyor's starting QB Nick Florence, I believe their offense is pounding on all cylinders once again this year. If anything, this will either be a complete rout for Baylor if they start out fast or it may be a back and forth shootout, if that's the case I still like my chances with Baylor. I'm about to watch the Baylor games again, if I feel comfortable I'll probably unload on them for sure later on. I actually think because of the close games ULM had against two SEC teams on the road that they are being hyped, hence we get a better value on Baylor. Auburn is a team that have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball and their defense is not what people believe it to be, they had a hard time adjusting to Kolton Browning's big play capabilities in the fourth quarter and allowed big time 4th down conversions which ultimately led to two touchdowns forcing the game into overtime. Arkansas had solid control over ULM a couple weeks ago, but when Tyler Wilson went down the team collapsed as a whole. Arkansas lost that game themselves, I didn't really see anything exemplary from ULM that makes me believe they'll be able to keep pace against Baylor tonight. Arthur Briles has plenty of video to figure out the strengths and weaknesses on the ULM side and I believe he is the better coach tonight as well which plays a huge factor in my decision making. I would also like to add that the veteran defensive coordinator for Baylor, Phil Bennet, will do a great job with the personnel he has available to him in making things difficult for Kolton Browning.
                          Comment
                          • CapperGuy
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 03-05-11
                            • 492

                            #14
                            Took Baylor for another 5k! Lets get this
                            Comment
                            • playr101
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-16-10
                              • 2029

                              #15
                              GL ... on it as well..

                              -playr101
                              Comment
                              • Resler
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-03-10
                                • 1417

                                #16
                                WTF is this bull shit offense QB hand off throw the ball.
                                Comment
                                • CapperGuy
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 03-05-11
                                  • 492

                                  #17
                                  2 turnovers= 2 TD's not good so far, but this one is far from over
                                  Comment
                                  • Resler
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-03-10
                                    • 1417

                                    #18
                                    Yeah, going to be a shootout I think.
                                    Comment
                                    • CapperGuy
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 03-05-11
                                      • 492

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Resler
                                      Yeah, going to be a shootout I think.
                                      This is another classic Baylor shootout! Reminds me of the Washington/Baylor game of last year. They can't afford anymore turnovers
                                      Comment
                                      • Resler
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-03-10
                                        • 1417

                                        #20
                                        Baylor really struggles making simple tackles. They don't wrap anyone up.
                                        Comment
                                        • paco
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 05-07-09
                                          • 62873

                                          #21
                                          Looks good now...
                                          Comment
                                          • CapperGuy
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 03-05-11
                                            • 492

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by paco
                                            Looks good now...
                                            It's a flat out shootout, even when they were down this game can swing either way. The turnovers will dictate who will win imo! Baylor are definitely more talented on the offensive side of the ball so lets hope they continue scoring everytime they have possession.
                                            Comment
                                            • sneakerhead
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-14-10
                                              • 7727

                                              #23
                                              Capper, you think things will slow down second half?
                                              Comment
                                              • CapperGuy
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 03-05-11
                                                • 492

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by sneakerhead
                                                Capper, you think things will slow down second half?
                                                I doubt it to be honest, both defenses look pathetic to me.
                                                Comment
                                                • Resler
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-03-10
                                                  • 1417

                                                  #25
                                                  Completely agree. I am shocked ULM is sticking with man coverage and I am encouraged that Baylor is finally getting pressure on the QB.

                                                  Originally posted by CapperGuy
                                                  I doubt it to be honest, both defenses look pathetic to me.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • CapperGuy
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 03-05-11
                                                    • 492

                                                    #26
                                                    ULM are in some serious trouble if they continue to play the man coverage their corners are jut not good enough to keep up with the WR's of Baylor. As long as we don't turn it over we should be just fine
                                                    Comment
                                                    • CapperGuy
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 03-05-11
                                                      • 492

                                                      #27
                                                      Why would they not go for 4th down? That punt might come back to haunt them
                                                      Comment
                                                      • CapperGuy
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 03-05-11
                                                        • 492

                                                        #28
                                                        A FG does us zero good in this game, terrible redzone possession by Baylor
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Philmill
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-30-11
                                                          • 4275

                                                          #29
                                                          Bought this game down to -6............. Baylors D has to make some stops...!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • CapperGuy
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 03-05-11
                                                            • 492

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Philmill
                                                            Bought this game down to -6............. Baylors D has to make some stops...!
                                                            Baylor have no defense, they did a horrible job in the redzone last go around and settled for a score that does them no good. Pretty horrible coaching decision!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Resler
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-03-10
                                                              • 1417

                                                              #31
                                                              No stops happening. Had them on 3rd and 7 like 4 times and could stop them.

                                                              Originally posted by Philmill
                                                              Bought this game down to -6............. Baylors D has to make some stops...!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • CapperGuy
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 03-05-11
                                                                • 492

                                                                #32
                                                                #3 has dropped too many passes tonight
                                                                Comment
                                                                • nic9212
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-19-12
                                                                  • 1536

                                                                  #33
                                                                  40-35 game is a nail bitter
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Resler
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-03-10
                                                                    • 1417

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Yeah, I don't see how they give up first down on every 3rd and long. That guy was wide open for a 41 yard pick up. FUMBLE FUMBLE woohoo.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • CapperGuy
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-05-11
                                                                      • 492

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Need Baylor to put the chokehold now and finish them off!
                                                                      Comment
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