Soft Lines? Over-rated/Under-rated?

**eatdarich** · 09-18-12, 10:09 AM

Boise State plays BYU this week not UL Monroe

**Maddhatter** · 09-18-12, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by eatdarich

Boise State plays BYU this week not UL Monroe

Thanks. Corrected

**gojetsgomoxies** · 09-18-12, 01:26 PM

i think the key is figuring out which teams are going to be 6-0 or 0-6..... i don't think 3-0 are much more likely to cover than 0-3 teams, if at all

one stat i asked about having seen but nobody responded is "points away from spread". some of these 3-0 teams have probably barely covered 2 of the games. i'd like to see a team that hasn't covered nicely (say 6+ points) in all 3 games (check unlv on the road the last few years for a team that hasn't comfortably NOT covered on the road the past couple of years)

i also like the quieter teams in those lists. sjsu, uconn, hawai on 3-0 list. ncstate, virginia on 0-3 list. by liking i mean streak to continue... didn't realize new mexico was 0-2. one of my pre-season good team picks. although only went with them vs. texas (not texas tech).

**Maddhatter** · 09-18-12, 01:53 PM

Using this as a precursor for now. Road and home streaks vs the spread fairly easy to find upon looking futher into games. If I have time I may expand it to include those or even any teams w/ a streak lasting longer than 3-4 games. W Kentucky is definitely a team I want to keep an eye on. UMass is in its first season joining the FBS so there will definitely be an adjustment period. Definitely its the lesser known teams covering that I feel will be ones to keep watch on (W Kentucky, San Jose St, ULM, Fresno St etc). Hawaii is another but tough since its usually a chase game. Always wacky things happen w/ Hawaii games. Time will tell.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 09-18-12, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by Maddhatter

Using this as a precursor for now. Road and home streaks vs the spread fairly easy to find upon looking futher into games. If I have time I may expand it to include those or even any teams w/ a streak lasting longer than 3-4 games. W Kentucky is definitely a team I want to keep an eye on. UMass is in its first season joining the FBS so there will definitely be an adjustment period. Definitely its the lesser known teams covering that I feel will be ones to keep watch on (W Kentucky, San Jose St, ULM, Fresno St etc). Hawaii is another but tough since its usually a chase game. Always wacky things happen w/ Hawaii games. Time will tell.

i agree totally that it's a good screeing tool. and i agree that there must be tons of betters who don't know how wk, sjsu, fresno have done. why they would bet on games involving those teams i have no idea, but they see to do it.

**Maddhatter** · 09-26-12, 02:47 AM

W Kentucky 3-0 (note that they have covered 12 or more straight ATS dating back to Sept/Oct of 2011; vs S Miss 0-2) -4 vs S Miss W (42-17)
Boise St 2-0 -7.5 vs BYU L (7-6)
Utah St 3-0 -13.5 vs Colorado St L (31-19)
UCLA 3-0 -10 vs Oregon St L (20-27)
UL Monroe 2-0 +7.5 vs Baylor W (42-47)
Florida 2-0 -24.5 vs Kentucky W (38-0)
Hawaii 2-0 (Lamar late night line covered) +9 vs Nevada L (24-69)
San Jose St 2-0 +3.5 vs San Diego St W (38-34)
Ball St 3-0 +10.5 vs S Florida W (31-27)
Conn 2-0-1 -1.5 vs W Michigan L (24-30)
Fresno St 3-0 -5.5 vs Tulsa L (26-27)
Georgia Tech 3-0 -14 vs Miami L (36-42)

Navy 0-2 NL vs VMI (41-3)
E Mich 0-3 +33 vs Michigan W (7-23)
UAB 0-2 +37.5 vs Ohio St W (15-29)
Virginia Tech 0-3 -19 vs Bowling Green W (37-0)
S Miss 0-2 (plays W Kentucky 3-0 ATS) +4 vs W Kentucky L (17-42)
USC 0-3 -15.5 vs Cal W (27-9)
New Mexico 0-2 +7 vs NM St W (27-14)
Virginia 0-2-1 +17.5 vs TCU L (27-7)
Arkansas 0-2 -7 vs Rutgers L (26-35)
Auburn 0-3 +20 vs LSU W (10-12)
Colorado 0-2 (+1 loss to FCS team - No Line) +19 vs Wash St W (35-34)
Wash St 0-2-1 -19 vs Colorado L (34-35)
Cent Mich 0-2 (lost 9 in a row dating back to last season ATS) +16.5 vs Iowa W (32-31)
NC St 0-2-1 NL vs Citadel (52-14)
Oregon 0-3 -24 vs Arizona W (49-0)
Mass 0-3 (plays Miami OH) +26.5 vs Miami OH W (16-27)
Miami (OH) 0-3 (plays UMass) -26.5 vs Mass L (27-16)
Wisconsin 0-3 -17.5 vs UTEP L (37-26)

**Maddhatter** · 09-26-12, 03:30 AM

Week 5

Ball St 4-0 -1 vs Kent St
Northwestern 4-0 -11.5 vs Indiana
Purdue 3-0 -16.5 vs Marshall
ULM 3-0 -18 vs Tulane
San Jose St 4-0 -2.5 vs Navy
Cincinnati 1-0 +7 vs Virginia Tech
W Kentucky 4-0 -2.5 vs Arkansas St
Texas Tech 3-0 -2.5 vs Iowa St
Utah St 3-0-1 -17.5 vs UNLV
Texas SA 2-0 +3.5 vs New Mexico St
Fresno St 4-0 -7 vs San Diego St
Oregon St 2-0 +3 vs Arizona

Wisconsin 0-4 +12.5 vs Nebraska
Virginia 0-3-1 +2.5 vs Louisiana Tech
Arkansas 0-3 +13.5 vs TxA&M
Miami OH 0-4 -4.5 vs Akron
Houston 0-3 -5 vs Rice
S Miss 0-3 +10.5 vs Louisville
Washington St 0-3-1 +29 vs Oregon

Week 4, W Kentucky had been matched up w/ S Miss for the perfect storm and continues to roll dating back to last season covering ATS 13+ times. This week they face an Ark St team w/ a potent offense ranked 15th in the nation @ 517 yds/g vs teams likes Oregon and Nebraska. W Kentucky is ranked 13th nationally for total defense @ 280 yds/g playing teams like Alabama and Kentucky. Sun Belt champs (Ark St) defending its title w/ W Kentucky coming to town riding a win streak @ home of 8 games. Last few years, games were decided by 4 pts or fewer. Will W Kentucky continue to win ATS?

Side Note: Oregon 3-0-1 1H covering ATS. 2H 2-2 (2-0 last 2). Not entirely sure this is 100% correct but basing it just by looking at the scores. (1H line was -13 this past week vs Arizona for the push).

**2daBank** · 09-26-12, 03:53 AM

i think Oregon st has chance to real off some wins if they can beat out zna this week...

**Maddhatter** · 09-26-12, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i think Oregon st has chance to real off some wins if they can beat out zna this week...

I agree. San Jose St is another team to watch IMO. Flip side, I think Houston may finally cover this week vs Rice and possibly Wash St. Only because Oregon will be resting its starters in the 2H. I wouldn't be putting any $$ on any of those teams in the losing ATS list though.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 09-26-12, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by Maddhatter

I agree. San Jose St is another team to watch IMO. Flip side, I think Houston may finally cover this week vs Rice and possibly Wash St. Only because Oregon will be resting its starters in the 2H. I wouldn't be putting any $$ on any of those teams in the losing ATS list though.

i agree. not sure i'd back any of those losing ATS teams but i'd back most winning ATS teams. and i'm not that biased as i took colorado last week

**HOT WINGS** · 09-26-12, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i think Oregon st has chance to real off some wins if they can beat out zna this week...

I am really thinking about hitting Zona this weekend. Oregon State has played well and got two big wins in a row but are on road for second straight week. Just seems like a good spot to fade them. Arizona will be looking to rebound this week. I think they played better than the final score of last week indicated, they just couldnt close in redzone and eventually waived the white flag as Oregon started running up score in 2nd half. I generally hate taking -3 or less favs but there are a few I like this week.

**Maddhatter** · 10-01-12, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by Maddhatter

Week 5

Ball St 4-0 -1 vs Kent St L (43-45)
Northwestern 4-0 -11.5 vs Indiana W (44-29)
Purdue 3-0 -16.5 vs Marshall L (51-41)
ULM 3-0 -18 vs Tulane W (63-10)
San Jose St 4-0 -2.5 vs Navy W (12-0)
Cincinnati 1-0 +7 vs Virginia Tech W (27-24)
W Kentucky 4-0 -2.5 vs Arkansas St W (26-13)
Texas Tech 3-0 -2.5 vs Iowa St W (24-13)
Utah St 3-0-1 -17.5 vs UNLV W (35-13)
Texas SA 2-0 +3.5 vs New Mexico St W (35-14)
Fresno St 4-0 -7 vs San Diego St W (52-40)
Oregon St 2-0 +3 vs Arizona W (38-35)

Wisconsin 0-4 +12.5 vs Nebraska W (27-30)
Virginia 0-3-1 +2.5 vs Louisiana Tech L (38-44)
Arkansas 0-3 +13.5 vs TxA&M L (10-58)
Miami OH 0-4 -4.5 vs Akron W (56-49)
Houston 0-3 -5 vs Rice W (35-14)
S Miss 0-3 +10.5 vs Louisville W (17-21)
Washington St 0-3-1 +29 vs Oregon W (26-51)

Week 4, W Kentucky had been matched up w/ S Miss for the perfect storm and continues to roll dating back to last season covering ATS 13+ times. This week they face an Ark St team w/ a potent offense ranked 15th in the nation @ 517 yds/g vs teams likes Oregon and Nebraska. W Kentucky is ranked 13th nationally for total defense @ 280 yds/g playing teams like Alabama and Kentucky. Sun Belt champs (Ark St) defending its title w/ W Kentucky coming to town riding a win streak @ home of 8 games. Last few years, games were decided by 4 pts or fewer. Will W Kentucky continue to win ATS? Continues to roll.... 14+ win streak ATS.

Side Note: Oregon 3-0-1 1H covering ATS. 2H 2-2 (2-0 last 2). Not entirely sure this is 100% correct but basing it just by looking at the scores. (1H line was -13 this past week vs Arizona for the push).

Interesting results so far. 3/4 dogs from the Win Streak List last week covered & won straight up. This week, all 3 dogs won SU. That's 6-1 since I started tracking. Also, Win Streak List went 10-2 ATS this week. Had a feeling most would cover but not to this extent. Losing Streak List also wasn't surprising that most didn't cover ATS and actually ended up 2-5. Considering as the weeks go on, this list should start diminishing and providing decent fades. We'll see...

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-01-12, 12:14 PM

hey, great stuff... perfects and winless ats have both been good picks. some perfects still under the radar, like sjsu. only 2 winless = ark and va.... ark is prob still fade altho the lines are reflecting their horrible play. va prob. good to back. turnovers vs. la tech

**Mr Handicapable** · 10-01-12, 01:29 PM

15-4....thats crazy...good work! I don't know if you follow totals but they work for me. La Tech is 3-1 ATS and easily easily 4-0 Over avg 89 ppg

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-01-12, 02:05 PM

situational too but i'd be happy backing all those perfect teams blind if necessary. def rather go with them than against...

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-01-12, 06:01 PM

i did this off two slightly different lists....

perfect OVER teams went 11-1 last week OVER. UNLV dropped off. some teams are way over OVER the last 2 games

perfect UNDER were 5-5 UNDER. a bunch didn't play. perfect UNDER seems hard. a few int's, fumbles, kr for ts can imperil a 41 O/U

the week for OVERS must be anamoly. cant bethat easy altho i'd believe 60%. you'd think people would screen for this.... some really good 4-1 or 3-1 OVER teams too

**Maddhatter** · 10-01-12, 06:22 PM

Week 6

Utah St 4-0-1 +7 vs BYU
Northwestern 5-0 +3 vs Penn St
Texas Tech 4-0 +5 vs Oklahoma
ULM 4-0 -3 vs MTSU
Oregon St 3-0 -15.5 vs Washington St
Cincinnati 2-0 -20.5 vs Miami OH
Fresno St 5-0 -16 vs Colorado St

Arkansas 0-4 +10 vs Auburn
Virginia 0-4-1 +2.5 vs Duke

Overs

Indiana 3-0 O48 vs Michigan St
Akron 4-0 O63.5 vs Bowling Green
Cent Mich 2-0-1 O66.5 vs Toledo
Ball St 4-0-1 O67.5 vs N Illinois
ULM 4-0 O66.5 vs MTSU
LA Tech 4-0 O68.5 vs UNLV
Georgia 5-0 O57 vs S Carolina
Miami 4-0 O51.5 vs Notre Dame

Unders

Utah St 4-0 U45 vs BYU
Kansas 3-0 U53.5 vs Kansas St
Michigan St 4-0-1 U48 vs Indiana
Miss St 3-0 U46.5 vs Kentucky
Bowling Green 4-0 U63.5 vs Akron
Oklahoma 2-0 U58.5 vs Texas Tech
TCU 3-0 U44.5 vs Iowa St
Washington 3-0 U65 vs Oregon

Added some O/Us just to track for now. Possible opportunities for sure like what Mr Handicappable has said. Without capping any deeper I do like Oregon St to cover and also the under. Will look more into this weekend's games as the week progresses.

**Maddhatter** · 10-01-12, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i did this off two slightly different lists....

perfect OVER teams went 11-1 last week OVER. UNLV dropped off. some teams are way over OVER the last 2 games

perfect UNDER were 5-5 UNDER. a bunch didn't play. perfect UNDER seems hard. a few int's, fumbles, kr for ts can imperil a 41 O/U

the week for OVERS must be anamoly. cant bethat easy altho i'd believe 60%. you'd think people would screen for this.... some really good 4-1 or 3-1 OVER teams too

Crappy defense, good offense type of teams. High scoring teams usually stay consistent. Conference play for some so have to watch for that. Once you start getting more conference match-ups, there may be some good opportunity to jump on the unders in certain scenerios.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-01-12, 06:39 PM

good analysis!

and i agree conf play differs from non-conf