Capping and Discussions 6/27

[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[moses millsap]

Lester and Liriano, two good young lefties. Hope they pitch well tomorrow.

[bigboydan]

heres the early injury reports:

NYM-C-LoDuca-Probable
BOS-2B-Loretta-Probable

PHI-OF-Burrell-Probable

NYY-2B-Cano-Questionable

TB-DH-Gomes-NOT expected to start
FLA-2B-Uggla-Questionable

SF-OF-Alou, SS-Vizquel-Probable,
OF-Bonds-Questionable

[Patrick McIrish]

Early leans:


LAD +140
Milwaukee +180

I can see why they are dogs but by the same token I like my chances of possibly stealing one of these two games, if so it's a nice profit. Three totals I am looking at:


StL/Clev U9
Oak/SD U7
TB/Fla O7-


Opinions welcome, I know you are around Dan. BTW after our talks the other day I played them anyway and went 2-1 with one rain out. Not bad, appreciate the feedback.

[bigboydan]

i haven't really had a chance to cap really indepth just yet. although, that cubs/brewers game was one i did happen to cap.

i like the brewers tomorrow myself. i think thats a very generous price with them. i think Zambrano is a bit over priced in this match up IMO


as far as that twins/dodgers game goes...

it's hard for me to bet against twins right now. then when you add Liriano on top of that red hot streak there on right now. well, i'm passing on that game altogher.

as far as the totals go. to be honest with you, i'd have really have to look alot more indepth before i could even comment on them.

[bigboydan]

heres the overnite consensus numbers from carib. i'll update them tomorrow before the games start:

# 901 8:05pm Brewers (Z Jackson) vs Cubs (C Zambrano) Cubs 93.88%
Brewers 6.12%
588 Bets

# 903 7:05pm Astros (R Clemens) vs Tigers (Robertson) Tigers 71.75%
Astros 28.25%
807 Bets

# 905 7:05pm Mets (A Soler) vs Red Sox (J Lester) Red Sox 40.91%
Mets 59.09%
264 Bets

# 907 7:05pm Phillies (C Hamels) vs Orioles (E Bedard) Orioles 46.74%
Phillies 53.26%
276 Bets

# 909 7:05pm Braves (H Ramirez) vs Yankees (J Wright) Braves 22.79%
Yankees 77.21%
408 Bets

# 911 7:05pm Nationals (RM Ortiz) vs Blue Jays (A Burnett) Blue Jays 87.68%
Nationals 12.32%
633 Bets

# 913 7:05pm Devil Rays (S Kazmir) vs Marlins (R Nolasco) Marlins 9.43%
Devil Rays 90.57%
636 Bets

# 915 7:05pm White Sox (M Buehrle) vs Pirates (I Snell) White Sox 98.64%
Pirates 1.36%
882 Bets

# 917 7:10pm Royals (M Wood) vs Reds (E Milton) Reds 88.51%
Royals 11.49%
522 Bets

# 919 8:10pm Indians (C Sabathia) vs Cardinals (AN Reyes) Indians 73.52%
Cardinals 26.48%
861 Bets

# 921 8:10pm Dodgers (D Lowe) vs Twins (F Liriano) Dodgers 29.11%
Twins 70.89%
474 Bets

# 923 9:40pm Mariners (J Washburn) vs Diamondbacks (B Webb) Diamondbacks 87.39%
Mariners 12.61%
666 Bets

# 925 10:05pm Athletics (B Zito) vs Padres (C Young) Athletics 67.14%
Padres 32.86%
420 Bets

# 927 10:05pm Rockies (A Cook) vs Angels (Jef Weaver) Angels 52.54%
Rockies 47.46%
177 Bets

# 929 10:15pm Rangers (K Millwood) vs Giants (M Morris) Giants 7.37%
Rangers 92.63%
285 Bets

[bigboydan]

heres the updated consensus from carib as of 1:30pm est.

# 901 8:05pm Brewers (Z Jackson) vs Cubs (C Zambrano) Cubs 44.58%
Brewers 55.42%
1965 Bets

# 903 7:05pm Astros (R Clemens) vs Tigers (Robertson) Tigers 63.31%
Astros 36.69%
2118 Bets

# 905 7:05pm Mets (A Soler) vs Red Sox (J Lester) Red Sox 38.64%
Mets 61.36%
1584 Bets

# 907 7:05pm Phillies (C Hamels) vs Orioles (E Bedard) Orioles 48.96%
Phillies 51.04%
1005 Bets

# 909 7:05pm Braves (H Ramirez) vs Yankees (J Wright) Braves 32.83%
Yankees 67.17%
1974 Bets

# 911 7:05pm Nationals (RM Ortiz) vs Blue Jays (A Burnett) Blue Jays 57.18%
Nationals 42.82%
2277 Bets

# 913 7:05pm Devil Rays (S Kazmir) vs Marlins (R Nolasco) Marlins 19.64%
Devil Rays 80.36%
1329 Bets

# 915 7:05pm White Sox (M Buehrle) vs Pirates (I Snell) White Sox 82.10%
Pirates 17.90%
3150 Bets

# 917 7:10pm Royals (M Wood) vs Reds (E Milton) Reds 55.99%
Royals 44.01%
2229 Bets

# 919 8:10pm Indians (C Sabathia) vs Cardinals (AN Reyes) Indians 35.64%
Cardinals 64.36%
2424 Bets

# 921 8:10pm Dodgers (D Lowe) vs Twins (F Liriano) Dodgers 47.68%
Twins 52.32%
2454 Bets

# 923 9:40pm Mariners (J Washburn) vs Diamondbacks (B Webb) Diamondbacks 61.53%
Mariners 38.47%
1770 Bets

# 925 10:05pm Athletics (B Zito) vs Padres (C Young) Athletics 62.28%
Padres 37.72%
1551 Bets

# 927 10:05pm Rockies (A Cook) vs Angels (Jef Weaver) Angels 81.80%
Rockies 18.20%
1203 Bets

# 929 10:15pm Rangers (K Millwood) vs Giants (M Morris) Giants 32.19%
Rangers 67.81%
1137 Bets

[moses millsap]

What's the outlook for that Phils/O's game in terms of the weather? Long delays expected, light rain, etc?

[moses millsap]

Will Webb continue to struggle in interleague play?

[bigboydan]

the latest weather projections are saying probability of rain 70% during the game.

[moses millsap]

the latest weather projections are saying probability of rain 70% during the game.

I know that, just wondering if any local news on how severe the storms are going to be, etc. Need to know if we can expect a long extended delay or not -- I need to know how large the bullpens will factor into this game.

[bigboydan]

Will Webb continue to struggle in interleague play?

not only will he continue to struggle, but the whole team will continue to. IMO

[bigboydan]

heres todays weather reports:

Mariners
D'backs
the roof will be closed (104°F)


Braves
Yankees
Forecast : 79°F
Probability of Precip:20 %
Wind: From the SSE at 18 mph


White Sox
Pirates
Probability of Precip:30 %
Wind: From the SSE at 6 mph


Rockies
Anaheim
Forecast : 81°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the WSW at 7 mph


Astros
Tigers
Probability of Precip:40 %
Wind: From the SSE at 5 mph


Brewers
Cubs
Forecast : 75°F
Probability of Precip:40 %
Wind: From the NW at 8 mph



Mets
Red Sox
Forecast : 77°F
Probability of Precip:10 %
Wind: From the SSE at 13 mph



A's
Padres
Forecast : 76°F
Wind: From the WNW at 9 mph



Phillies
Orioles
Forecast : 78°F
Probability of Precip:70 %
Wind: From the SE at 16 mph



D'Rays
Marlins
Forecast : 84°F
Probability of Precip:30 %
Wind: From the SE at 11 mph


Nationals
Blue Jays
Forecast : 73°F
Probability of Precip:80
Wind: From the SE at 9 mph
(odds are the roof will be closed)




Indians
Cardinals
Forecast : 78°F
Probability of Precip:30 %
Wind: From the NW at 9 mph




Royals
Reds
Forecast : 80°F
Probability of Precip:30 %
Wind: From the WSW at 7 mph



Dodgers
Twins
(dome)



Rangers
Giants
Forecast : 63°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the WNW at 12 mph

[Illusion]

The Cubs have no business being a big favorite tonight, but lets just say I have an inside tip on this one and I am unloading on the Cubs tonight.

[onlooker]

The Cubs have no business being a big favorite tonight, but lets just say I have an inside tip on this one and I am unloading on the Cubs tonight.

Is that right? What is the inside tip. Didnt know you had a contact with in either of those ball clubs.

[bigboydan]

heres the latest carib consensus numbers as of 6:10pm est.

901 8:05pm Brewers (Z Jackson) vs Cubs (C Zambrano) Cubs 54.07%
Brewers 45.93%
2985 Bets

# 903 7:05pm Astros (R Clemens) vs Tigers (Robertson) Tigers 62.35%
Astros 37.65%
3801 Bets

# 905 7:05pm Mets (A Soler) vs Red Sox (J Lester) Red Sox 48.76%
Mets 51.24%
2793 Bets

# 907 7:05pm Phillies (C Hamels) vs Orioles (E Bedard) Orioles 56.43%
Phillies 43.57%
1914 Bets

# 909 7:05pm Braves (H Ramirez) vs Yankees (J Wright) Braves 25.78%
Yankees 74.22%
3084 Bets

# 911 7:05pm Nationals (RM Ortiz) vs Blue Jays (A Burnett) Blue Jays 69.68%
Nationals 30.32%
3453 Bets

# 913 7:05pm Devil Rays (S Kazmir) vs Marlins (R Nolasco) Marlins 20.81%
Devil Rays 79.19%
2220 Bets

# 915 7:05pm White Sox (M Buehrle) vs Pirates (I Snell) White Sox 84.00%
Pirates 16.00%
4839 Bets

# 917 7:10pm Royals (M Wood) vs Reds (E Milton) Reds 67.60%
Royals 32.40%
3315 Bets

# 919 8:10pm Indians (C Sabathia) vs Cardinals (AN Reyes) Indians 32.18%
Cardinals 67.82%
3570 Bets

# 921 8:10pm Dodgers (D Lowe) vs Twins (F Liriano) Dodgers 39.62%
Twins 60.38%
3771 Bets

# 923 9:40pm Mariners (J Washburn) vs Diamondbacks (B Webb) Diamondbacks 65.16%
Mariners 34.84%
2514 Bets

# 925 10:05pm Athletics (B Zito) vs Padres (C Young) Athletics 66.77%
Padres 33.23%
1968 Bets

# 927 10:05pm Rockies (A Cook) vs Angels (Jef Weaver) Angels 72.60%
Rockies 27.40%
1719 Bets

# 929 10:15pm Rangers (K Millwood) vs Giants (M Morris) Giants 27.75%
Rangers 72.25%
1665 Bets

[EBone]

The Cubs have no business being a big favorite tonight, but lets just say I have an inside tip on this one and I am unloading on the Cubs tonight.

I know what it is. Let me guess Illusion. Zambrano got his dose tonight of juice. He feels like he can throw 130 MPH tonight, right? I figure he best be careful though. Those Brewers can hit fastballs. Maybe not at 130 mph though.




E

[moses millsap]

I know what it is. Let me guess Illusion. Zambrano got his dose tonight of juice. He feels like he can throw 130 MPH tonight, right? I figure he best be careful though. Those Brewers can hit fastballs. Maybe not at 130 mph though.




E

[bigboydan]

F.Y.I.

Philadelphia/Baltimore postponed

[Illusion]

Liriano has been pitching really well and the Twins have been rolling. I am also playing the Twins tonight.

[Illusion]

F.Y.I.

Philadelphia/Baltimore postponed

No shocker since the entire east coast is under water.

[onlooker]

Liriano has been pitching really well and the Twins have been rolling. I am also playing the Twins tonight.

To chalky for my taste. No matter how great the young guy has been pitching. Still young, and can make mistakes. To high risk for me being that high.

[Illusion]

To chalky for my taste. No matter how great the young guy has been pitching. Still young, and can make mistakes. To high risk for me being that high.

I like it even more now since my good friend loves the Dodgers.

[moses millsap]

Snell smells like shit

[bigboydan]

i think Buehrle will give a few back soon enough bud.

[moses millsap]

I don't know how much longer they should stay with Snell, he's given up 8 hits already.

[moses millsap]

Mauer 9 for 10 the last two nights

[bigboydan]

thank you Ryan Dempster for blowing the save for me

[onlooker]

I guess that info wasnt that great huh Illusion? Brewers won 8-5. Dempster is garbage, and so is Dusty. So did the info at least come true for you?

[bigboydan]

i loved it that the cubs imploded. i had 5 units on the brewers tonight

[Patrick McIrish]

Early leans:


LAD +140
Milwaukee +180

I can see why they are dogs but by the same token I like my chances of possibly stealing one of these two games, if so it's a nice profit. Three totals I am looking at:


StL/Clev U9
Oak/SD U7
TB/Fla O7-

Looks great, split on the dogs so Brewers win made them nice and profitable, then swept the 3 plays on totals. Only problem is I didn't get the bets in, that's twice I've done that in the last two weeks. Waited for one reason or another and ended up not getting down on any of them.....

[Patrick McIrish]

i loved it that the cubs imploded. i had 5 units on the brewers tonight

Yeah that price was way out of line, I mean it's the Cubs we are talking about here. Nice job, wish I had followed through on my leans as well.

Sigh.

[bigboydan]

that was a really nice hit for us pat. although, seattle and SD were just as nice for me tonight too

[Illusion]

I guess that info wasnt that great huh Illusion? Brewers won 8-5. Dempster is garbage, and so is Dusty. So did the info at least come true for you?

Dempster is a big piece of shit. The Cubs should have won. 4 unearned runs.